While the Patriots take a few well-earned days off of rest, let's look at five key questions facing the Patriots once they get back for the final four games. (BSJ members, leave your looming questions in the comments and I may mix them in.)
Previously:
5. Have they settled on their rotations?
4. Can they hold up in the secondary without Gilmore, Jones?
3. Can the Patriots come from behind, if needed?
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A hallmark of a good Bill Belichick defense is the ability to stop the run. It's the key to everything, really, defensively. Limit the run on early downs, and it puts the offense in longer yardage on third down and allows the defense to rush and play the pass with more aggression without the fear of a run. You can put more defensive backs on the field. It swings the advantage to the defense.
The Patriots were not good against the run last year, which led to one of the worst first and second down defenses in the league, and struggles on third down.
So far this season, they've been much improved, which has led to the sixth-best third-down defense (35.8 percent conversions).
But there have been a few issues — namely the 270 rushing yards allowed to the Titans without Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones — that have led to some consternation in these parts about whether the Patriots, when push comes to shove against a well-balanced offense and in the postseason, can really get the job done on the ground.
With the Colts and Jonathan Taylor, the league's leading rusher by over 300 yards over No. 2, on deck Saturday night, it's a great opportunity to look at some of the issues on this side of the ball and how the Patriots might play going forward.
While many of the stats are quite good against the run — FootballOutsiders.com has the Patriots 6th against the run in DVOA, and Patriots are 7th in percent of rushes gaining 4+ Yds — there are some that are mildly concerning:
- All of their defensive stats have come against the 28th-ranked defensive schedule;
- In our stuffed run stat (runs of 1-yard or less outside of short-yardage situations), a good rate is above 30 percent. The Patriots have hit that mark in six games, and have failed to in seven games.
- Taking out the Buffalo game due to weather factors, the Patriots have only stopped the run better than 19 percent of the time once in the past five games since the second Jets victory (50 percent vs. Falcons).
- Patriots are 23rd in 3rd and fewer than 4 yards conversions.
- They are 15th in percentage of rushes that go for 4+ yards on first down (45.4).
- Rushing defense on second down is 14th (4.56 average)
Let's also look at the teams the Patriots have done the best job against on the ground (going by our stuffed run percentage, which is usually pretty accurate):
- The Falcons didn't have WR Cordarrelle Patterson — their best running back who isn't even a running back — and the offensive line was atrocious.
- The Texans have an awful offensive line and the QB was rookie Davis Mills so the Patriots could stack the box.
- The Jets (twice) ... they're the Jets.
- Dallas is the biggest outlier and one of the bright spots that you could certainly point to and say, "See, they've done it."
- The Bills can't run the ball under the best weather circumstances, and the wind helped both defenses greatly in that game.
Outside of Dallas, not really surprising the Patriots played good run defense against those teams. But Dallas was a huge, huge accomplishment. That can't be understated.
If there's one thing that's a bit concerning — and it speaks to the Patriots' weakness against the run in some games — it's that the three worst run rates have come against three of the best centers they've faced: Chargers' Corey Linsley, Brown's JC Tretter, and Titan's Ben Jones. Ryan Kelly is up next for the Colts and while he's had an off season to date, he's traditionally been one of the better run blockers in the league.
To me, this is the key matchup in every game. Davon Godchaux or Carl Davis vs. the interior of the opposing offensive line. When those two guys can win the battle, the Patriots are just fine against the run — as you saw against the Bills.
This is a big challenge against the Colts. While Kelly and RG Mark Glowinski are closer to advantage than outstanding, LG Quenton Nelson is one of the best in the league, although he's been battling leg injuries all season. The result is that the Colts are in the top 10 rushing behind LG, C and RG.
So the middle of the Patriots' run defense — and the entire unit — will have a huge test and measuring stick on Saturday night. Basically any answers we seek about this group will be answered.
Godchaux, to this point, has overwhelmed bad centers but has looked small and is able to be pushed around against the better interior groups. Carl Davis, in those matchups, holds the point better. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots play it on Saturday night. Their best run defense line is Davis at nose with Lawrence Guy and Godchaux. Will the Patriots match best-on-best with Guy (6-4) vs. Nelson (6-5)? Or will they sacrifice Godchaux (6-3) vs. Nelson, or think he matches up better with Glowinski (6-4)? Or go with Davis (6-4)?
It's all a fascinating big man matchup. And it really hinges there. The Patriots have usually been good on the edge with Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy or Dont'a Hightower. If the linemen are doing their job, then Ja'Whaun Bentley and Hightower have no issue, they shut down the run,
But if Godchaux, Davis, Guy and (gulp) Deatrich Wise get pushed back by better units (including the very large colts that don't have anyone below 6-4), then they will have a tough time and that trickles down to the pass defense.
With the Colts' ability to make some plays via the pass thanks to coach Frank Reich — until Carson Wentz makes his inevitable mistake — and their offensive line, Taylor and quick Nyheim Hines, this is a phenomenal stress test for one of the areas where there are lingering questions heading for the stretch run.
Get your popcorn. This is a big man game.