NFL Notebook: NFL personnel executive takes stock of the Patriots entering stretch run

We asked a current NFL personnel executive that has studied the AFC East closely this season, to answer a few key questions about the Patriots as they are in the bye week.

The questions:

• What do you think of the team overall?
• What is your assessment of Mac Jones?  Can he do what no rookie QB has ever done and lead a team to the Super Bowl?
• Can they play this much zone defense and win in the postseason?
• What’s the weakness of this team? Which AFC teams could take them out?

What do you think of the team overall?

They’re an excellent team. Pure complimentary football. Everything that Bill believes in is perfect for thwarting modern-day football. The Shanahan tree wants to run wide zone. The Patriots are going to stay square and set edges and string things out (defensively). Teams want to get faster and quicker inside and have cover linebackers ... great. That means they’re going to get smaller so the Pats are going to run the hell out of it. They overpaid for skill guys because they had to, but those guys have also played really well so who cares if they overpay?

What is your assessment of Mac Jones?  Can he do what no rookie QB has ever done and lead a team to the Super Bowl?

I think Mac can accomplish a lot of things other rookies can’t because he’s extremely smart and he’s being coached by extremely smart coaches. So he’s able to absorb a lot of information and do what they need. He’s not going to make the volume of mistakes that rookies make because he’s smart enough to avoid it, and they’re going to limit his chances to make mistakes.

Can they play this much zone defense and win in the postseason?

I think they can play zone and they’re getting enough pressure to make it possible. That's been the whole key to this point for the defense. They're getting a lot of pressure with (Matthew) Judon and (Christian) Barmore. If that continues, it feeds into how they're playing coverages. If the rush doesn't get home and the QB has time to work through his progressions, that's where an issue could arise.

What’s the weakness of this team? Which AFC teams could take them out?

I think the weakness is, as good as they’re playing on offense, I don’t know if they can outscore teams like Kansas City or Baltimore if Lamar (Jackson) gets rolling or even Buffalo in a one-off game with good weather. Tennessee and Indianapolis play into their strengths, but can you see them losing to those teams — and QBs — if they’re full strength? They can beat anyone and lose to anyone. It's a pretty boring response, I know, but that goes along with this team and Bill. 

THE ALL-OUT BLITZ VS. BUFFALO

Want to know why the Patriots went with an all-out blitz — as they often do with the game on the line — against Josh Allen and the Bills, as opposed to playing coverage? I thought former Patriots personnel executive Mike Lombardi gave a good glimpse into the thinking when he talked on his podcast before the game was played, about how the Vikings lost on the final play against the Lions and Jared Goff last Sunday.

"I don't understand it. You're playing Jared Goff and you don't blitz? Here's the thing, in the situation where they were at the part of the game, you're playing zone? Like I get it, right. I mean, there was four seconds left to go on the clock. Play man-to-man! Play man-to-man! And if you're going to get beat, tackle the guy and make it pass interference and run the play again. But when you give up zone and you spot drop, it's just a 7-on-7 game and you rush three? Like you don't hit any of the receivers? I mean, they got nobody to blame but themselves.

"They lost it with defense. I mean, they played passive. Like, how do you play passive in that stage? Four seconds? I mean, nobody likes to throw the ball quicker than Jared Goff. Nobody wants it out of his hand. It's a hot potato, and you let the potato lay in his hand? Like seriously, you don't heat up the potato? Like that's your fault, right? You got to get after his ass, right?

"If Golf has time to check the runners at first and third, he'll deliver the ball of the plate. But if you make him speed up, four seconds to go, and you're over there and you let him ... 'Oh, go ahead, counting to five Mississippi.' I mean, come on. You know, football's not a complicated game, right? When we played in the backyard, if we all counted to five Mississippi, everybody got open. If we counted to three Mississippi, nobody got open. Like in that situation, that's a three Mississippi situation — we're getting after his ass. You know, in the midfield, maybe we'll play a five Mississippi game. Where's the logic? It's like trying to understand like, are you watching the game? Didn't somebody in there say look, here's Jared Goff. Here's the rep on Goff. We got to heat Goff up. Mike Zimmer's got more blitzes than is known to mankind. Playing soft? It's ridiculous."

Now compare that to the final play in Buffalo, via Belichick.

You'll note that the pressure from McCourty and Josh Allen's unwillingness to just stand in and absorb the blow — he throws off his backfoot — leads to a soft pass that is knocked down by the wind and really isn't close to being completed.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. With an NFL.com report cementing this week that Jaguars coach Urban Meyer continues to be on thin ice, the question remains: Will owner Shad Khan actually fire him after one season? Among the allegations in the report: receiver and team leader Marvin Jones was furious with Meyer over his repeated criticisms of the receiving group and the two had it out during practice; Meyer calling his assistants losers; Jaguars players told Rams players that Meyer doesn't treat them like adults. That would seem to be the road to being fired, but Khan has been very patient with previous hires in Gus Bradley, Doug Marrone and former GM David Caldwell. Khan sunk a lot of money into Meyer and his program, and some around the NFL would be surprised if Khan swallowed all of that after one season.

2. Of course, a perfect replacement would be Josh McDaniels. Not sure how Khan can watch what Trevor Lawrence has done — 58 percent completions, 9 TDs, 10 INTs, 72.3 rating — and not compare it to how Mac Jones has been developed by McDaniels. Yes, Jones went to a much better situation and talent, but can Khan — and Lawrence — afford another season like this? Say Khan sticks with Meyer only for the same thing to happen next year. Then Khan hires someone else who brings in another playbook — god forbid a defensive head coach with changeable offensive coordinators — and now Lawrence is starting over again in Year 3. This is the book on how to ruin a young franchise quarterback. What's best for Lawrence is best for the franchise, and the Khans. If there is any doubt, they have to bite the bullet and fire Meyer, and then give McDaniels whatever he wants.

3. According to this ESPN.com report, here are the latest rumblings on potential openings around the league. Remember, teams that have fired their coach, or at least state they will be relieved of duties after the season, can interview candidates as soon as Week 16 concludes:

• Raiders (already open): Interim coach Rich Bisaccia will likely get a formal interview and the fate of GM Mike Mayock is in doubt. Owner Mark Davis is likely to rely on the advice from several former NFL executives, including Ron Wolf — who spent a lot of time around the Patriots with son Eliot in training camp. Would be a surprise if McDaniels doesn't end up on the list there. Good luck with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in this division.
• Bears: Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is said to be a possible candidate.
• Vikings: Depends on the finish, but GM Rick Spielman has always had ultimate power there.
• Broncos: With a new GM in George Paton this season (heavy Vikings ties), Vic Fangio probably needs to make the playoffs.
• Panthers: Matt Rhule is expected to be back for a third season — and he should be, that's a good team with a QB problem — but you never know with a neophyte owner like Dave Tepper. 
• Giants: Firing Joe Judge would make it three straight coaches the Maras have fired after just two seasons. More likely they just hire a new GM to replace Dave Gettleman and see how it goes from there. 
• Seahawks: Pete Carroll will be 71 the first month of next season — is he really ready to endure a mini-rebuild, especially if Russell Wilson manages his way out of town? Unlikely there's a change here, but I could see Carroll kicking upstairs as President of Football Operations and installing defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. as coach. 

4. Good on the Kraft family for footing the bill, once again, to improve their own stadium. In an age where most teams hold their host communities hostage, the Krafts have constantly stepped forward to pay to make Gillette Stadium not feel outdated — back to financing the initial build themselves. The renovations to the north end of the stadium (they already put a new video board on the south side) will include the installation of the largest outdoor high-definition stadium video board in the country, new hospitality and function spaces, a re-envisioned plaza and enhancements to the Gillette Stadium lighthouse, which will now be 218-feet high with a 360-degree observation deck.

5. Rest in peace, Demaryius Thomas, who passed away this week at the stunningly young age of 33. Thomas was a member of the Patriots for a short time in 2019 before being traded to the Jets. That was his final year in the league. Thomas was a second-round choice of the Broncos — then led by Josh McDaniels — in the 2010 draft. His loss was felt around the league. "Heartbroken," said one of DT's former coaches. "He was the best human being I’ve coached — unreal that he is gone. Nobody better. (All of the stories about Thomas' kindness) were true. He was a gift."