AMHERST, NY — There's no question that Mac Jones has been very good this season as a rookie for the New England Patriots.
So good in fact that, should he successfully navigate the next three games with a winning record, he will be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. If you're a rookie QB and you guide your team to the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the conference, they should just hand you the hardware.
Jones hasn't been perfect, and he isn't without his faults. But he and Josh McDaniels have done a masterful job at hiding those deficiencies, at least so far playing the league's 25th-toughest schedule against defenses.
But Jones has been efficient. He's been tough. Resilient. Highly accurate. Made small plays and big plays. Most of all, Jones has played winning football to help the Patriots to an 8-4 record and, currently, the top seed in the AFC.
Jones has yet, however, to have his defining moment: that special play or comeback that makes you think, 'OK, this kid is rare.'
Of course, just operating at this level and the Patriots having this record as a rookie would be deemed "special" by the Mac Mafia — and they would have a compelling argument.
But being efficient and playing winning football is quite different than being special. Kirk Cousins is very efficient. Tua Tagovailoa has been efficient and playing winning football during the Dolphins' 5-game winning streak (73 percent completions, 11 TDs, 5 TDs, 98.9 rating), with a lesser team and coaches around him. But we wouldn't deem those players special — probably far from it.
Jones has been very good and if this is the floor for him, the odds are strong the ascension in the following years will indeed be rare, special and any other adjective you want to use.
But there are certain moments very early on in their careers when the elite QBs signal to the world that they will be a force to be reckoned with — and it's not a W-L record or efficiency numbers.
Just look at some of Tom Brady's moments in 2001 (yes, he was not a rookie ... going from fourth string to emergency QB is in the same ballpark), and you see flashes of what he would become.
And we haven't seen Jones to that yet, at least in his limited opportunities.
Jones played admirably against established stars Brady and Dak Prescott, but lost. Jones' biggest QB showdown wins came against Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield — two QBs Bill Belichick owns, and who play for hard-luck franchises who can never get out of their own way.
That's just one of the many reasons why tonight's showdown is so special. If Jones can come into Buffalo in bad weather (it's already raining and the winds are high), outduel the much-fawned-over Josh Allen and take down the defending AFC East champions in their own building, that's something special.
After Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe in 2001, he:
- Beat Peyton Manning (thanks to the defense, and David Patten) twice (148.3 rating in the second one).
- In Week 5, Brady led the Patriots back from a 26-16 deficit to beat the Chargers in overtime after he made the key play against the blitz (the first, 'What did he and they just do?' moment from that season). Brady finished 33 of 54, for 364 yards and two touchdowns.
- Went toe to toe with Kurt Warner and the Rams.
- Of course, there were Brady's postseason heroics, especially the Super Bowl.
During the regular season, Brady didn't have a bushel of wow moments, like a Dan Marino. But beating Manning twice convincingly — that would be the equivalent of down the Bills and Allen twice, starting tonight. And that Chargers game ... that was passing a team from behind. That was really the first "special" moment for Brady.
We'll say this about the Jones-Brady comparisons from that season — Jones' floor is a lot higher. Brady had four multi-INT games and threw four second-half interceptions at Denver. If Jones did that, people would be jumping off the Tobin and sports talk radio would begin breaking down the draft and free-agent QBs.
No one is saying Jones isn't capable of such heroics. I'm sure he is, we just haven't seen it yet, and he really hasn't had all that many opportunities. Could the Patriots win a Super Bowl without him having that defining moment? After watching Sunday's wretched slate of NFL games ... absolutely.
But there's a difference between having a special team, and having a special quarterback. Trent Dilfer, Nick Foles, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco and Jeff Hostetler won a lot and won Super Bowls – because they successfully helped steer great teams.
Jones could be a star in the making, or he could be an Uber driver like those others for a brief moment in time.
No one can know which Jones is. Moments will reveal his ceiling.
And tonight would be a perfect opportunity to give us that glimpse of special.