The Red Sox didn't spend a dime Monday, and still, the day proved to be highly costly for them.
When Corey Seager signed his 10-year, $325 million deal with the Texas Rangers, it set the bar high for the shortstop market.
No doubt, Xander Bogaerts was paying close attention.
This winter is the Year of the Shortstop, with Seager, Marcus Semien (seven years, $175 million also with Texas) and Javier Baez (six years, $140 million with Detroit) already having signed and both Trevor Story and Carlos Correa still on the on-deck circle.
Seager is now the second-highest paid at his position in the game, with an AAV (average annual value) of $32.5 million per season, close on the heels of Francisco Lindor at $34.1 million AAV, by virtue of the 10-year, $341 million extension he signed with the Mets earlier this season.
Next up is Semien at $25 million AAV and Baez at $23.3 AAV.
In the last eight months, then, no fewer than four players have easily surpassed Bogaerts, who inked a six-year, $120 million extension in April of 2019. At the time, it was widely agreed that Bogaerts had signed a team-friendly deal; now, less than three years later, the contract is thoroughly outdated.
That's relevant, of course, because Bogaerts has an opt-out in his deal after 2022. And if there were any doubt as to whether he was going to exercise that option, it seemingly dissipated this week. Taking a below-value deal to remain with the only team for which you've ever played for is one thing. But now that Bogaerts is looking at an opportunity to re-do his deal -- either with the Sox or elsewhere -- it's unimaginable to think he wouldn't do so.
While Bogaerts certainly has his limitations defensively - he was ranked near the bottom in 2021 in several defensive metrics, including defensive runs saved and outs above average -- a case could be made that he's the best offensive shortstop in the game.
Compare his numbers to those of Seager, likely his closest competitor in that department, over the last four seasons. In OPS+, Bogaerts is at 133, Seager 128. In OPS, Bogaerts is at .894 while Seager is .864. Bogaerts has outhomered Seager, 90-52.
In WAR, Bogaerts has been worth 17.2, nearly twice that of Seager at 9.1.
And when it comes to durability, it's no contest -- Bogaerts has played 491 games to just 307 for Seager.
If you're looking for an offense-first shortstop, Bogaerts is clearly the superior choice between the two. The one advantage Seager has is that he's about a year and a half younger -- he'll turn 28 next April, while Bogaerts will be 30 next October 1.
As for the others, Baez, while more athletic and capable of making superb plays in the field, has been far less consistent at the plate and lacks discipline, with a career OBP of .307. Semien, while clearly the better defender and capable of more power (78 homers in his last two full seasons), is also two years older.
Meanwhile, it's possible that Correa may top Lindor when it comes to total value ($341 million) and AAV ($34.1 million).
The only negative for Bogaerts could be a thinned-out market for shortstops a year from now. With five teams spending freely to fill that positional need this winter, how many will be searching for others this time next year?
It's worth noting, of course, that both the Yankees and Dodgers -- only the two biggest-spending teams in the game the last two years -- are currently without a long-term answer at short. The Dodgers could stay with Trea Turner for 2022 -- he'll be eligible for free agency, too, after this year -- before going out on the market next winter. The Yankees are said to be searching for a stopgap answer at the position for 2022, with the promise of two top shortstop prospects in the pipeline -- Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.
And Bogaerts may benefit by being in a less-crowded field of free-agent shortstops. Next year, only Turner is an elite player, though solid options in Tim Anderson and Dansby Swanson will also be available.
What could Bogaerts demand next offseason? At 30, he would likely be in the market for a six- to eight-year deal, with an AAV approaching (if not topping) $30 million.
By then, the Sox will either have Bogaerts' left-infield partner Rafael Devers either signed to a massive contract extension, or a mere year away from the free-agent market himself.
The Rangers laid out a cool $500 million for Semien and Seager in the span of a few days, with Semien set to play second.
It's not unthinkable that the combined price tag to extend and retain Bogaerts and Devers could match, or even exceed that.
There remains the question of whether the Sox envision Bogaerts as someone they want to play shortstop into his 30s. He could benefit from a switch of position, including second base, a position he's yet to play professionally.
The Sox have a potential franchise player in Marcelo Mayer, the fourth selection in last summer's draft. But signed at 18, Mayer is probably a minimum of three years from contributing at the big league level.