Rafael Devers remains under Red Sox control for the next two seasons and won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season.
But if you listen carefully, the clock is ticking and every day Devers isn't extended by the Red Sox, the anxiety level for the team's fan base increases. Here are five thoughts on the situation and what's at stake for both sides.
1. It may not seem like it, but time is getting tight.
Two years can be a long time in the game, and a lot can happen and change in that span. That's especially true with the current collective bargaining agreement up next week and uncertainty surrounding the sport's economic future. Will a new CBA feature a competitive balance tax? Will the salary threshold be lower and the penalties greater? These are all things the Red Sox will want to know before moving forward.
But already, there's a sense of urgency to get something done. The last thing the Red Sox want is for Devers to get so close to free agency that he feels compelled to experience it, if for no other reason than to see what else is out there.
The Sox weren't aggressive enough with Mookie Betts in the years leading up to free agency and as he headed into his final year of team control in 2020, the Sox felt it necessary to trade him, rather than to lose him after the season and be rewarded with only a draft pick.
The closer Devers gets to sniffing free agency, the harder it may be to convince him to sign.
2. The team can't afford another PR nightmare.
When Betts was traded, Red Sox fans were understandably outraged. The Red Sox are a big market team, charging some of the highest ticket prices in the game, have fabulous fan support and a highly lucrative local media revenue stream, and should never be in a position where they can't afford to re-sign one of their own homegrown stars.
It was bad enough that Betts had to be shipped out, with the team getting just a fraction of his value in return. If the same thing happens with Devers, the fan revolt will be stronger. Once, they might get over it. But twice? The Sox would be sending a clear signal to their fan base that they're unwilling -- despite their resources -- to compete at the top end of the market.
3. The proposed purchase of the Pittsburgh Penguins could mean some bad optics for the Red Sox.
Fenway Sports Group, the media consortium that is the parent company of the Red Sox, is finalizing a deal to purchase the NHL franchise for a proposed $875 million.
FSG is a separate business from the Red Sox themselves, and involves other partners and investors. But Red Sox principal owner John Henry is the biggest shareholder in FSG -- said to have about 40 ownership in the company -- and the second-biggest stakeholder is Red Sox chairman Tom Werner. Other investors include LeBron James and his business partners and RedBird Capital Partners, which earlier this year bought in at a $750 million stake.
Henry has many businesses outside the Red Sox, including ownership of the Boston Globe along with his own hedge fund interests. But to many fans, Henry is synonymous with the Red Sox, and fairly or unfairly, every investment he makes is viewed through a Red Sox prism.
If the sale of the Penguins is completed and the Sox fail to extend Devers, not a few Red Sox fans are going to connect the dots and voice their displeasure.
He has the money to buy another pro franchise, but not enough to keep his best players???
Again, that may or not be a fair assessment of Henry's motives or interests. But it's going to happen if Devers leaves.
And if we're focused on optics, there's this: How bad will it look if the Tampa Bay Rays -- to whom the Sox have been unfairly compared since Chaim Bloom came aboard -- lock up their franchise infielder (Wander Franco, 11 years, $182 million) and the Red Sox don't do the same?
4. Talks likely to heat up in January.
There's no hard-and-fast answer to determining the best time to get a deal like this one done, but for the most part, many of these in-house extensions tend to take place after the first of the year, in the period leading up to spring training. Partly, that's due to the fact that the two sides will be meeting to discuss Devers' salary arbitration figures, which will be set sometime in mid-January. It's not uncommon for a team and a player to explore multi-year packages.
Also, by mid-January, most teams are (mostly) through roster-building for the upcoming season, though that's been less true in recent years as teams take longer and longer to aggressively pursue free agents and some of the top stars are without jobs February arrives.
Finally, the uncertain labor picture could play a factor. If a lockout takes place next week, that will freeze all offseason transactions until a new deal is in place, and theoretically at least, push the whole calendar back. Already, there's anticipation that a lockout that stretches into late January or even early February could result in a manic, compressed bidding season with both teams and players/agents hurrying to get deals done before camps open.
That, in turn, would result in less time to address a deal that could, in theory, be tackled at a later date.
For what it's a worth, an industry source said recently that talks have yet to begin in earnest, but that it remains a priority for the Sox this winter.
4. The parameters of such a deal are almost impossible to predict.
The whole thing is complicated, obviously, since we don't know how long a deal Devers may be seeking, or how long a contract to which the Red Sox would be willing to commit.
Recently, the trend in the game has gone to mega-deals that essentially take the player into retirement age. Betts -- irony alert! -- signed a 12-year extension with the Dodgers. Mike Trout got 10 years with the Angels, as did Francisco Lindor with the Mets. Fernando Tatis Jr., meanwhile, agreed to a 14-year extension with the Padres.
It's important to note that every one of these deals involved a player being extended by his current team, before getting a chance to go to free agency. So that list doesn't include, say, Bryce Harper (13 years) and Manny Machado (10 years) both got double-figure length when they signed in 2019.
Devers is 25 and will be 27 when he's eligible for free agency in the fall of 2023. It's possible, though pretty unlikely, that he would accept a shorter deal with a higher AAV (average annual value) for a chance to hit the free-agent market a second time in his early 30s. But given the trajectory of the free-agent market in recent years, with even the best position players experiencing difficulty in attracting interest in their early 30s, that seems unlikely. Agents and players typically seek a set-for-life deal when they reach (or start to approach) free agency for the first time.
Meanwhile, teams would prefer not to be locked into deals of such length, they do so because that's what the market calls for, knowing full well that the back end of such deals, when a star player is likely to be in his late 30s or older, are likely to be poor investments. That's just the cost of doing business.
A 10-year deal -- at minimum -- seems like a safe bet.
5. Nolan Arenado looks to be the best comp available.
Arenado signed a seven-year, $235-million deal with the Colorado Rockies before they traded him a year later to St. Louis. Once with the Cardinals, Arenado got another additional season and another $15 million and an opportunity to opt out after 2022. In exchange, Arenado gave up the no-trade clause that had been included in the original deal.
So, while there's some deferred money involved, his deal is eight years, $250 million, with an AAV of $31.25 million.
There aren't a lot of other logical comps -- that is, All-Star third baseman signing an extension before free agency -- and Arenado isn't the perfect model. For one thing, he's a far, far better defender than Devers, having won nine Gold Gloves in nine seasons. Arenado is considered among the finest defensive third basemen in the modern era. Devers, meanwhile, committed 222 errors last year and was -22 in defensive runs saved above average according to Baseball Info Solutions.
Offensively, the comparison is a tough one, since Arenado played his first eight seasons in hitter-friendly Coors Field. But it's instructive to note that in OPS+, which is calculated to account for ballpark factors, their career figures are nearly identical: Arenado is 121 and Devers is 120.
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If you're wondering why the Red Sox would be willing to more than double Michael Wacha's base salary ($3 million in 2021; $7 million in 2022), consider two factors: some underlying numbers, which point to the potential for improved performance and the clamor for starting pitching on the open market.
Wacha's 2021 with Tampa Bay (5.05 ERA) was hardly encouraging. But the Sox took note of his chase rate -- which ranked in the 92nd percentile last season — and the improvements he made after ditching his cutter and focusing more on his fastball and curveball. In his last eight starts, Wacha's strikeout-to-walk ratio was 45-7, and other teams took notice of that uptick in performance.
Over his last seven outings, he posted a 2.88 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP while allowing opposing batters a .167 batting average.
"Throughout the year, I felt like the cutter just didn't have the consistency that I wanted,'' said Wacha. "So I just kind of scrapped that and started mixing in the curveball (more). It was a lot slower than the cutter and it felt like it was a big difference from my other pitches and it kept hitters more off-balance. It ended up being a pitch where they would either take it and I could steal a strike or it would (result) in weak contact and help the fastball play up.
"Toward the end of the year, I started throwing (the curve) more and mixing that in and started having some more success. I'm continuously learning about myself and making adjustments to where I can become the best version of myself. In the offseason, I'm going to continue to work on those pitches but also working on getting that cutter back to where I need it to be, where it's a more consistent pitch against righties and lefties.''
Wacha said it was "mostly'' his idea to reduce the amount of cutters thrown, though Tampa Bay pitching coach Kyle Snyder also played a role.
"Looking at the charts and seeing what was getting hit, what was the highest average against certain pitches and where they were,'' said Wacha, "and just the feel that I had with the cutter -- it wasn't quite where I needed it to be to take me to that next level. But after throwing that curve more and seeing the reaction of the other lineups, it ended up paying off.''
Not unlike Andrew Heaney ($8.5 million with the Dodgers), Wacha was able to parlay a season in which his primary stats didn't look appealing into a bidding war among several teams, resulting in a significant bump in salary.
With a number of starters seeking deals with an AAV of $20 million or more (Robby Ray, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer among others), Wacha represented a decent gamble to more than a few teams.