After watching some Titans film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the 7-4 Patriots (favored by 6.5) against the Tennessee Titans (8-3), and three factors I'm worried about along with some video analysis.
CONFIDENT LIST
1. The Titans will have trouble scoring in this game.
Everyone knows about the Titans' injury issues on offense with RB Derrick Henry and WRs Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson on IR, WR A.J. Brown battling a rib injury. This doesn't kill them in terms of offensive production — the Titans drove the ball decently in the upset loss to the Texans, they just couldn't finish drives and turnovers killed them. But that's part of the issue. QB Ryan Tannehill, back to his Miami days, has always been a player who is a product of what's around him. Like Mac Jones, Tannehill needs certain things — good protection, good running game, consistent pass catchers — to be successful at these points in their careers. Neither is going to put up 30-plus points by themselves.
That's where the Titans are at this point. With Henry in the backfield, opposing defenses had to always have an extra player in the box to defend the run. It made passing much easier just due to simple math. Without Henry, now the Patriots, like other teams, can feel confident defending backs D'Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard without an extra player and they might even try with a lighter box (Adrian Phillips at LB). Not sure the latter will work — the Titans still run block well up front and they have run the ball well enough without Henry, but it's not enough to make the passing game dangerous. That leads us to...
2. Ryan Tannehill will turn the ball over.
Tannehill, despite his success with the Titans, is still the QB he's really always been — make it simple for him with defined reads and limited options, and he'll do OK given space and protection. But if you muddy up the looks for him, he's going to be slow delivering the ball and you can jump routes. That's what he showed once again last week against the Texans, who nearly had a pick-six (Hilliard's great hustle saved a TD).
Tannehill, once he gets off script and has to think, will stare down receivers. The Titans do not have enough talent to get the Patriots out of their zone coverage, so I look for them to play off and read the eyes of Tannehill. I would be surprised if JC Jackson and Kyle Dugger don't get their hands on a few passes.
3. Jonnu Smith revenge game?
We all know the former Titan has gotten off to a slow start with the Patriots, especially with his run blocking. And, yes, the Titans have two very good safeties in Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker. But I expect Mike Vrabel to pay extra attention to Hunter Henry, especially in the red zone. And if there's one thing about the Titans' defense, it's that their linebackers are SLOW, especially rookie Monty Smith (56). If I'm Josh McDaniels, I'm trying to find Smith on screens and little drag routes all day. The Titans rally and tackle very well, but Smith should be able to make some plays with his legs after the catch. Could see a Smith screen going for a TD.
WORRIED LIST
1. The Vrabel factor.
He's very, very good. Even when his team is struggling, he finds a way to keep them in the game with his in-game strategy. He is very much Bill Belichick's equal in that regard. But sometimes Vrabel's players aren't good enough to follow through — Tannehill blew countless chances last week to avoid the upset — and he doesn't have Tom Brady (probably wishes he did).
Vrabel knows Belichick and Josh McDaniels like the back of his hand. He knows exactly how they will try to attack his team, and he will be ready to counter. Will the Patriots coaches think outside the box and beat Vrabel at his game? That's a big question. With all the injuries, they might just have too much talent at this point.
The Titans are undermanned at this point. They know it. The Patriots know it. We know it. The worst thing the Patriots could do in this game is play the Titans' game — physical, run the ball, play tough defense and force long drives. Yes, that's the Patriots' game as well and serves them very well 95 percent of the time. But the Patriots also pride themselves on being able to win different ways. This would be a game to try to more dangerous on offense, perhaps go uptempo for portions of the game.
Vrabel wants a game in the teens or low 20s. He wants a street fight in a phone booth. If the Patriots get sucked into that game, the Titans are more comfortable there. Patriots should expend a lot of energy early trying to jump on top and getting the Titans to play from behind.
2. Anticipate the Titans taking away Henry and Judon.
The Patriots, likely because they've been figuring out themselves along the way as well, have avoided teams taking away what they do well and playing lefthanded. Vrabel knows what he's doing, so he's going to attempt to stop the run, shut down Henry on third downs and in the red zone, and he'll have a plan to cool off Matthew Judon. Good luck with that.
But this game should be good practice for what they'll encounter in the playoffs. Vrabel is going to make life tough on the Patriots on both sides of the ball, and we'll see the Patriots out of their comfort zones for the first time in a while. How will they react? There's much we don't know.
3. Jeffrey Simmons and Byard are gamewreckers.
The Titans have two of the best players at their positions in Simmons, the defensive tackle, and Byard the safety. You can't single-block Simmons — plus he has a good supporting cast up front — and Byard will come out of nowhere to make plays on the ball.
The Patriots will have plans for both players because if they're not careful, they will cause game-changing plays. Patriots will give Simmons the JJ Watt/Joey Bosa treatment. Byard is tough to gameplan around but Jones will need to keep track of him before every snap.