Sunday was almost perfect for the Patriots.
The Bills got blown out at home as Josh Allen melted down in a big spot — again.
The Titans, who have so many impressive wins on their resume, lost at home to the Texans to go along with their Jets loss earlier in the season.
Unfortunately, the Ravens did hang on to beat the Bears.
Still, it doesn't get much better than leading the AFC East after Week 11, and having a chance to be the AFC's top seed if they can beat the Titans at home on Sunday.
That should bring a lot of excitement to the region, as the Patriots have officially made it all the way back to where they were before Tom Brady left. Great to see. Great to hear.
But, not to be the Wet Blanket of Reason, but ... the Patriots haven't done anything yet.
There's no question they are in a very good position for this stretch run and for years going forward. It feels like they are back, and back for good. With Mac Jones coming into his own, and a layer of young talent finally emerging after years of a personnel desert, the Patriots seem to be in a great spot.
In the words of Han Solo, "Don't get cocky, kid."
If we've learned anything during this 2021 NFL season, it's that anything can and will probably happen. There's no question that the AFC is wide open. Yes, the Patriots could certainly make history and help bring the first rookie starting QB ever to a Super Bowl. But about 11 other teams could stake some sort of claim as well.
Yes, the Patriots are thisclose to the top seed (one game). Did you know they're almost as close to the 12th seed (1.5 games?)
In other words, if the Patriots start worrying more about the big picture than the task directly in front of them, they're going to stumble and that could lead to some strange things happening, including them out of the playoffs entirely.
I mean, the Patriots' best wins to get to this point are over the Chargers (6th seed at 6-4 and not exactly a well-oiled machine) and a Browns team that is fading faster than the sun in late November.
The Patriots deserve all the credit for battling back to get to this spot. Winning five straight games against anyone in the NFL is an accomplishment. But we all know that from this point forward is the Patriots' proving ground. What they've done before this point is great, but it really doesn't mean much. Lose to the Titans and/or Colts, and get swept by the Bills — who did sweep the Patriots last year — and the first 11 games don't really matter.
Basically, everyone in the AFC is 0-0 at this point, and it's a six- or seven-game season for each team.
Yes, things look good for the Patriots. You have to like their position.
The Titans (8-3) have already lost RB Derrick Henry and WR Julio Jones to injured reserve, and they appeared to lose WR A.J. Brown in Sunday's loss to the Texans (in addition to WR Marcus Johnson). Tennessee is not nearly deep enough, and QB Ryan Tannehill isn't good enough by himself, to overcome losses like that
"They turned the ball over against the Texans, so that’s hard to count on," Bill Belichick said today. "That’s not what they do. I don’t think we’ll get that. They’re a tough, physical team. The backs run hard. They have a very experienced line. Obviously, [A.J.] Brown is a huge threat. [Anthony] Firkser had some big plays against us when we played against them in ’19. Defensively, they’re, again, a strong, physical team. Up front, you’ve got to handle the big guys. You’ve got to handle [Jeffery] Simmons and then [Harold] Landry and the pass rush. They’re a typical Mike [Vrabel] team. They’re tough. They’re physical. They make you beat them. They don’t make many mistakes. They know what they’re doing. They’re sound. They’re a good, fundamental team. They tackle well. The backs and receivers run hard with the ball. The quarterback is athletic. Sound in the kicking game. We’re going to have to play a good football game in all three phases."
The Ravens (7-3) have their usual slate of AFC North grinders left (Browns twice) but also showdowns with the Packers and Rams.
The Bills (6-4) still have the Saints, Bucs and Panthers in addition to the Patriots' meetings remaining.
But it's not all good news for the Patriots.
For one, they have one of the toughest schedules remaining among the AFC contenders. Our buddy Aaron Schatz over at FootballOutsiders.com gave us a sneak peek at his DVOA numbers for this week and the Chiefs, Titans and Chargers have much easier roads than New England the rest of the way:
First number is team rank this week, then past schedule, future schedule.
And don't look now, but the Colts and Chiefs have joined the Patriots in being considered "the team you don't want to play right now."
Indianapolis (6-5) has won three straight and five of six since a 1-4 start to the season. They shellacked the 49ers and, of course, Bills in Buffalo, along the way. The Colts feel a bit like the Buccaneers last year in that after adding just a veteran quarterback, it took everyone until about midseason to learn how to play together.
Still, how many people not employed by the Colts trust Carson Wentz in a big spot? And in addition to the Patriots, the Colts still have the Bucs, Cardinals and Raiders on the schedule.
The Chiefs (7-4) have won four straight and five of six since starting 2-3. Patrick Mahomes still isn't in prime form, but if he gets there, KC could be back on top because the defense has definitely turned a corner — yielding 30 points total in the previous three games. They might have the easiest schedule left with the Chargers, Raiders, Bengals and Steelers the toughest games. But nothing has been easy for the Chiefs this year and they've fortunately ducked some talented players (Aaron Rodgers) to this point.
We know what's ahead on the Patriots' schedule. Titans, Colts and Bills twice along with the AFC Florida swing. None of that is going to be easy, especially the finale in Miami where weird things always happen to the Patriots. And we know there are so many questions left unanswered about this team should they find themselves trailing or in a dogfight late, and how Jones is going to play when things get colder and messier.
They appeared to be in a great spot and back for good. They definitely have momentum. But the Patriots are not the only team in the AFC that can say that.
It's now a six-game sprint. The team that stays focused on the task in front of them will be the last team standing. It could very well be the Patriots. But it might not be. There is still much left to learn about them and the other contenders.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. We'll have more on the Titans, obviously, but on first blush, this seems to be a defensive affair between two worthy adversaries. If the Titans don't get a running game to aid Ryan Tannehill, he turns into Dolphins Tannehill. He was awful on Sunday.
“We got beat today,” Vrabel said following the game. “We turned the ball over five times. If you don’t play well in this league, I don’t care who [the opponent] is, you’re going to lose when you turn the ball over. Nobody wants to hear that, but when you do that, it doesn’t matter what their [opponent] record is. We had five turnovers and they had zero. You’re going to lose that game 99% of the time.”
Tannehill took the blame.
“At the end of the day, it falls squarely on me,” Tannehill said. I have to be better. We moved the ball, but we kept shooting ourselves in the foot. We had multiple turnovers and turnovers on downs. We had some penalties. We shot ourselves in the foot all day long. We have to be better, and that starts with me.”
2. I might be more worried about the Colts. Strong defense and a really good running game. Plus, Frank Reich knows how to play against the Patriots. But I have zero faith in Wentz.
3. After playing the 32nd-ranked offensive schedule to that point, Josh Allen melted down at home again going against the first real defense he's seen. Hmmm, who could have seen that coming? Also, yeah, the first month of the season really meant something. The three most dangerous teams in the AFC right now, the Patriots, Colts and Chiefs, started a combined 5-13. #bleh
4. Jerod Mayo on Kyle Van Noy's recent string of playmaking: "I would say it's definitely getting better. You know, all these guys are getting better the more we play, the more we play together. And I would say those guys in front are doing a good job allowing the linebackers, whether we're talking inside or outside linebackers, those guys are doing a great job -- Carl (Davis) and (Davon) Godchaux and (Christian) Barmore -- all those guys are sometimes taking two to three (blockers) to free our guys up. Kyle's our Swiss Army knife, a guy that can play on the line -- you know, all these guys can do it. But I would say Kyle can do a little bit of everything at a very high level, and the plays come in bunches. He's doing well."
5. Will be interested to see how Tom Brady and the Bucs respond to two-straight losses tonight against the Giants. Brady was mighty ticked off after the Washington loss. The Patriots are surging, Belichick's being talked about all over the place and no one really cares about Brady and Bucs at this moment. Feels like Brady is getting a little cranky about everything. Of course, people felt similar about the Bucs at this point last year and they caught fire.