The offseason has barely begun, and there's still nearly three months before players report for spring training. A lot can happen between now and then -- or not happen, should the owners carry through on their perceived threat to lockout the players in two weeks' time.
One thing, however, is already clear: the Red Sox, like virtually every other team in the game, need starting pitching. That was true when their season ended, and it's particularly true now that they've lost free agent Eduardo Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers.
That defection leaves the Red Sox with three established starters -- Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta --- and ... a lot of question marks. Not that they lack for potential candidates. Both Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck are possibilities, having each delivered strong performances in 2021.
Whitlock made 46 appearances and pitched to a 1.96 ERA, working a variety of relief roles. Initially, he served as a long man before earning the trust of Alex Cora and the coaching staff and graduating to more high-leverage spots. By the end of the year, it was no stretch to suggest that he had grown into their most trusted bullpen weapon.
Houck, who had made his major league debut in September of 2020, split time between being a spot starter (13 starts) and a multi-inning reliever. He also missed considerable time in the first half of the season with a forearm strain.
Each is now poised to shift to the rotation full-time -- depending, of course, on what else the Sox do in free agency and via trades over the winter. If Boston obtains an established starter -- which is almost certain to happen -- then it's conceivable that one of the two will graduate to the rotation while the other remains a relief option.
But that's a call the Sox don't have to make yet. There's still plenty of time for the two right-handers to get ready for whatever role is carved out for them.
"At this point, where we are right now in mid-November, it doesn't make a difference (to their offseason programs),'' Red Sox pitching coach Dave Bush said. "Their workouts are going to be the same. Some guys continue throwing virtually the whole year; some guys take some time off. This year's a little bit different with the postseason run where the offseason gets compressed a little bit. But no matter where guys are with their throwing program, at this point in the winter, everyone's at about the same place.
"When it changes is after the first of the year, when the throwing sessions become a little longer or more intensive. Reliever might crunch them together a little bit more. But for guys that are in the middle -- like those two, where we're not sure what their roles are going to be -- almost always they prepare as a starter, because inevitably, it's easier to cut the workload down and increase the frequency than it is to try to increase the workload quickly. So if they come in (to spring training) thinking they're going to throw more pitches and more innings, then their bodies are going to be prepared for it. And if we decide to go a different route, then we can cut down the number of innings and increase their frequency of their appearances. I would rather do that than go the other way.
"For those two -- and this goes for other guys on the 40-man who have not been in the big leagues -- they're probably going to prepare as starters because once you lay that foundation, that gives us the option. And really, even the first 10 days of spring training, pretty much every (pitcher) is on the same schedule. They're all going to throw a couple of times off the mound, they're all going to throw live BP and they're all going to throw one, at most, two innings in their first appearance.''
Already, Whitlock and Houck have been told to come into camp prepared to compete for a starting spot.
"And if that opportunity presents itself,'' said Bush, "you'll be ready for it. And if it doesn't right away, then we'll shift to whatever else we need. But that's the way we approach it with those swing guys -- be prepared to start, be ready to compete to start, and we'll see how camp and the rest of the offseason shakes out.''
There's been some speculation that the Sox would have to carefully manage Whitlock, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, missed all of 2020 because there was no minor league season and pitched just 73.1 innings in 2021. But Bush maintains that Whitlock is out of the woods when it comes to his health and he's won't necessarily be behind Houck.
"He's not at any disadvantage,'' said Bush. "The number of innings that we think that he's capable of throwing, that's one thing to look at. But that in and of itself would not determine what role we put him in. Because ultimately, we're going to put the guys who have the best chance to start and be effective; they're the ones who are going to start. If that means we get 115 innings out of one guy and 130 out of another, we're going to (select) the best guy out there and we're going to put together the pitching staff that gives us the best chance overall. So with Whit, I don't see an artificial number we're going to place on him.
"This year, we were cautious with his workload early on, knowing that he pitched zero innings the year before. He didn't pitch back-to-back much at all until closer to the end of the year. But at the end of the year when games mattered and we thought he was our best option, we weren't afraid to put him out there and use him a lot. I guess what I'm saying, as a matter of practice, we don't like putting numbers on guys that we have to stick to because the situation may say otherwise -- up or down.
''So, if we think Whit is one of our best starters, and that's where he fits best, then he'll get a chance to start and he'll go out and pitch. We're not going to have a hard limit on him. If we think it's Tanner, the same thing applies to him. If we think it's both of them, then it applies to both of them, And if we think at any point over the course of the year, the workload is affecting their performance, then we'll have to make adjustments -- either in more time off or changing their role or whatever adjustments we have to make.''
While it might seem logical to graduate both pitchers to the rotation, the Sox have to be mindful of replacing the valuable innings Whitlock and Houck supplied in relief -- a total of 83.2 innings combined. Those won't easily be duplicated, and especially in an era when teams are reluctant to have young starters go more than five innings -- and face a lineup a third time -- it's essential that they have someone to bridge the treacherous gap between starter and high-leverage relievers in the late innings.
Much will depend on what other moves get made, but it may be that shifting both to the rotation would mean improving the rotation at the expense of the bullpen, and it may make more sense to keep one of the two in a multi-inning relief role.
"Having a guy that you feel confident in throwing five, six outs, a couple or three times a week....there's a big spot for a guy like that,'' Bush said. "If you know you can get from your starter to your close with maybe one guy, there's a lot of value there. It's not easy to do and there's not a lot of guys who have the stuff and the stamina to do it. But as you saw with us, it was very valuable for us. A little bit depends on the makeup of the rest of your staff, but I do think there's a lot of value in relievers who can effectively throw multiple innings.
"And when you find one, you realize how important and how valuable they really are.''
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Another potential pitching issue facing the Sox will be how to treat their veteran starters in spring training.
The 2021 postseason carried the Red Sox into late October. The journey wasn't as arduous as it was in 2018, when the Sox won the World Series and were competing until the end of the month. But it's still something they have to take into account, especially considering how much it impacted the team in 2019.
If you'll recall, Alex Cora and then-pitching coach Dana LeVangie made the decision to lighten the Grapefruit League workload for Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Rodriguez. That strategy backfired big-time in the first two months of 2019, as it became obvious that the starters hadn't pitched enough in spring training to ready themselves for regular-season competition: Result: the starters were shelled, the bullpen was overworked, the Sox began slowly, and never recovered.
Lesson learned.
"Across the big picture, we're going to treat spring training like normal,'' Bush said. "We're going to go into with guys getting into their regular five-day cycle right away. The adjustments we'll make will be more individualized. There's a lot of variation -- we have Nate, who made all his starts and threw a lot of innings. And we have Chris Sale, coming off an injury, who made 10 or so starts and didn't throw that many innings. And we have Nick, who was somewhere in between -- he threw a lot of innings, certainly a lot more than he did in 2020, but he's also had a couple of years in the past as a starter where he threw, I think, more (innings) or just about the same as he did this year.
"So each guy is going to be a little bit on his own program. For the time being, I'm going to build out a spring training schedule that will be a typical one, where they slide right into their cycle and they make their starts, on schedule, as the way through. If at any point, one of those guys or more need a little bit extra time or need to do a minor league game or a back field game to reduce their workload a little bit, then we'll make that adjustment as we go.
"It's not going to be an across-the-board change in their plan. But I always go into it with the flexibility of 'Hey, if we need to get you an extra day here during spring training, then we're going to do it.' We did it with Eduardo last year, where I think for his first appearance we kind of did a glorified scrimmage on a back field instead of pitching one of the first (Grapefruit League) games because he wasn't quite ready yet. And that was fine.''
Later, when Rodriguez was diagnosed with a dead arm and removed from his Opening Day assignment, the team called a similar audible -- moving the rest of the starters around to accommodate the shift.
"Everyone ended up one less start in spring training than they had planned on,'' said Bush, "because we had to shuffle them to get them lined up for the regular season. Let's say they were originally going to make six starts in spring training, they all only made five. And that was fine because that's what we needed to do. But I like going into camp with a full schedule and then be willing to adjust off of it as needed.''