After watching some Falcons film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the 6-4 Patriots (favored by 6.5) against the Atlanta Falcons (4-5), three factors I'm worried about along with some video analysis, and my game pick.
CONFIDENT LIST
1. Mac Jones will be well-protected for the second game in a row.
Everyone saw how good Jones can be when, basically for the first time all season, he received good protection in the 45-7 beatdown of the Browns. Given a little more time to survey the field, Jones was basically flawless.
The Patriots could have even better protection against the Falcons.
In what has been an issue for Atlanta going back several years, it barely has a pass rush and often has to resort to creative pressures to get home. The Falcons, according to PFF, have 11 sacks and 111 total QB pressure this season. The Patriots, by contrast, have 28 and 172 — and no one would mistake them for Blitzburgh. As long as they take care of DT Grady Jarrett and ILB Deion Jones — two players that I love and have no help around them — Jones will basically be in a La-Z-Boy in the pocket and picking apart the Falcons secondary. Dante Fowler is OK on the edge, but he won't require much help. CB AJ Terrell is one of the most underrated players in the league.
The Falcons are 30th in FootballOutsiders.com's pass defense DVOA. Zero pass rush and only one corner are not a good combination. Just don't ask Dean Pees about bringing more pressure.
Dean Pees did not come to play today👀 pic.twitter.com/ZxBwW57iYX
— Luke Carr (TD4LC) (@LukeCarrNFL) October 28, 2021
2. The Patriots will run the ball reasonably well.
The Falcons are 22nd against the run in DVOA. They do have some speed, rally really well to the ball and are well-coached. In losing 43-3 to the Cowboys last week, Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard only combined for 83 yards on 25 carries (3.32 average). Pollard's 15-yard run was the biggest running play of the game. Of Dallas' 10 longest plays, nine came via the pass.
But, again, they just don't have much talent. Double team Jarrett to get to Jones and the Patriots should be able to run the ball just fine in this game. It's not going to be fancy or hugely productive, but 4-5 yard runs will do the job and keep the offense balanced. I suspect Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson easy best the Dallas duo against this defense.
3. Patriots will pressure Matt Ryan — especially Christian Barmore.
The Falcons' offensive line is not very good in most spots. LT Jake Matthews is OK, but the Patriots have done a number on him in the past. Rookie LG Jalen Mayfield is the weak link. C Matt Hennessy is solid, and Boston College product Chris Lindstrom is very good at RG — should be a great matchup with Lawrence Guy. RT Kaleb McCary is below average and will have a tough time with Matthew Judon.
I look for Barmore to have his national coming out party in this game. After doing good work last week against the great Browns' interior, Barmore will feel like a freed man in this game and I expect him to have a huge game.
Ryan is still a really good QB, but he has no weapons outside TE Kyle Pitts and WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson (game-time decision/ankle). You know the Patriots will shut down Pitts, and Ryan won't have much else to work with. Ryan gets into trouble when he faces pressure and he'll see that in this game. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if activated DE Chase Winovich (Josh Uche to IR) gets loose in garbage time.
Bonus: Atlanta also has the worst special teams in the league.
WORRIED LIST
1. Falcons' institutional knowledge.
Everyone knows Falcons DC Dean Pees was with the Patriots and fired, and he's done well in his opportunities against them, most notably with the Titans and Ravens. He knows what the Patriots are trying to do and will give them some issues.
Falcons coach Arthur Smith beat the Patriots as OC of the Titans in the 2019 playoffs and was given the keys to hurting the Patriots' defense by Mike Vrabel.
Normally this would give me a lot of pause, and I do expect the Falcons to give the Patriots a few issues more than most teams, but the compressed time schedule and the Falcons' lack of talent make that a tough proposition.
2. Matt Ryan.
As opposed to some of the quarterbacks the Patriots have gone against of late (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Justin Herbert with no running game, Zach Wilson), Ryan is not going to be fooled by some of the Patriots' rudimentary disguises. So I expect him to hit the Patriots on a few plays, especially if they keep relying on zone coverage. Ryan's issues come against pressure. Get someone in his face, and he rushes and guesses. Patriots will win out, but Ryan will make some plays as well.
3. Falcons' best players.
Atlanta is not totally bereft of talent. Ryan, Pitts, Patterson, RB Mike Davis (a favorite of mine due to his hard-running style), and Lindstrom are all top-notch for their position in the league. Defensively, Jarrett, Jones and Terrell are outstanding. Top 5 at their spots. Those are all guys who can make plays. I always worry about them, especially since Thursday night football levels the playing field, especially for the road teams.
GAME PICK
Patriots -6.5; 47 o/u
This game opened at 3.5 and quickly shot up, for good reason. Patriots are feeling themselves and Mac Jones is back in a groove, coming off his best game — by far — of the season. That should continue in this game. The short turnaround is the only thing that can keep the Patriots down in this game. But for the first time in a long time, the Patriots have some young arms and legs that should be able to bounce back quickly.
I look for big games from their young emerging talent — Jones, Harris, Stevenson, Kendrick Bourne, Barmore. I will be interested to see how Judon does in this game. He's played a lot of snaps and his legs could feel it in the second half. That's why they need Barmore to have a big game and I think he will.
Patriots 35, Falcons 10