The first major signing of offseason took a chunk out of the Red Sox' starting rotation.
Lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez, who fashioned a 64-39 record over parts of six seasons with the Red Sox, Monday agreed to a five-year, $77-million deal with the Detroit Tigers. According to multiple media reports, Rodriguez will have an opt-out following the second year of the deal and limited no-trade protection. The contract is also said to include an additional $3 million in performance bonuses.
The Tigers, who showed big improvement in the second half of last season, are intent on contending in the AL Central and landing Rodriguez to help anchor their rotation represents a big step forward. Rodriguez greatly admires Tigers sluggers Miguel Cabrera, a fellow Venezuelan.
The Red Sox had given Rodriguez a qualifying offer two weeks ago, which he rejected at some point last week. The Red Sox had also made Rodriguez a multi-year deal offer in the middle of last season, then upgraded their offer last week.
As a result of Rodriguez signing elsewhere, the Red Sox will get a compensation draft pick next summer after the second round.
The loss of Rodriguez leaves the Red Sox with a sizable hole in their starting rotation. Rodriguez, who missed all of the 2020 season with COVID and a resulting case of myocarditis, had averaged slightly more than 180 innings in his last two full seasons. In 2021, he was 13-8 with a 4.74, though that ERA was inflated because of bad luck (a BABIP of .364, compared to the league average of .297) and poor defensive support. His FIP was 3.32.
Acquired at the trade deadline in 2013 from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Andrew Miller, Rodriguez enjoyed his best season in 2019 when he went 19-6 with a 3.84 ERA. His .621 career winning percentage is good for 11th-best among active pitchers.
Even before the loss of Rodriguez, the Red Sox were in the market to bolster their starting pitching depth, and Rodriguez's departure ups that ante.
The Sox will have Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi to head their rotation, with Nick Pivetta slotted in the middle and both Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck as candidates to join the rotation full-time.
The Sox have some payroll flexibility moving forward, with no multi-year commitments on the books other than Sale (three years, $85 million with some of that money deferred) and Xander Bogaerts (signed through 2025 at $20 million annually, though Bogaerts has an opt-out after the 2022 season) and the ability to offer a multi-year deal for a proven starter.
The Sox have already expressed interest in free agent Steven Matz, who profiles similarly to Rodriguez. Matz is a year older -- Rodriguez will turn 30 in April; Matz will be 31 in May -- but has performed as a mid-rotation option.
It's unlikely that the Sox will dabble in the deep end of the free agent starter pool. Max Scherzer is said to prefer pitching for a West Coast team and has both the Dodgers and Angels among his suitors. The Red Sox were represented last week at Justin Verlander's workout in Florida, though it remains unclear whether they were just doing their due diligence or are actually in on the two-time Cy Young Award winner, currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Lefty Robby Ray is arguably the best starter on the market. He would cost the Red Sox a draft pick, but with Rodriguez's departure, the Red Sox now have three picks in the second round (their own, a compensation pick for not signing their second-round pick in last July's draft, and a pick for losing Rodriguez) which would, theoretically, make it less painful to sign a player who turned down a qualifying offer. Still, Ray is likely looking for a giant deal of at least five years, for perhaps as much as $30 million AAV.
There's also the trade front. Among the options available are Luis Castillo (Cincinnati), Pablo Lopez (Miami) and several members of the Oakland A's rotation -- Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas -- as the A's go through another cycle of rebuilding.
