What’s wrong with Jayson Tatum?
This might be the most popular Celtics-related question there is at the moment. The Celtics are just floating along around the .500 mark right now, but it’s fair to say that some even average Tatum play would have turned at least a few of those losses into wins.
He is currently off to a 38.8% start from the field, and 32.1% from 3. According to NBA stats, he’s currently shooting 48% within 5 feet of the rim, while Cleaning The Glass has his rim number at about 52%.
There’s no other way to characterize his start other than to say it’s just horrible.
But also, it’s just 13 games. I find it hard to believe that Tatum has simply forgotten how to shoot. Also, we’ve seen this before.
He opened the 2019-20 season shooting 40.1% from the field, including 35.7% from 3. He shot 43.4% within 5 feet of the rim over that October/November stretch.
He was so bad at the rim that it was a big story at the time. We asked him about it.
“Oh, man, I wish I knew, because I am terrible on layups,” he said back in November of 2019. “I hope it's just an early season rough start, but I have to keep attacking, play off 2 feet more, just dunk it."
All he did in '19-20 was make his first All-Star team, shoot 48% from 3, 45% overall, and ultimately 55.4% within five feet of the rim. He shot 47% from the field, 46% from 3, and 57% within five feet after the All-Star break.
So we have, at least, some precedent that Tatum has started similarly slow with many of the same issues and overcome them to have a good season.
It’s still not entirely comforting to Celtics fans, who would like to see something more than the slow burn to Tatum’s season. As much as we like to say that games don’t really matter in November, these are still losses to conference opponents who will be fighting for seeding. Having a more Tatum-like Tatum would be helpful.
So what’s going on here?
The easiest answer to give is to shrug and say “he needs to hit more shots,” which is basically what he said when he was asked the question. The broadest, biggest-picture view is, simply, he’s in a funk.
That stands to reason. He had to carry a heavy load after Jaylen Brown went down with a wrist injury, and after a long-haul recovery from of COVID-19. He then played deep into July as part of Team USA’s gold medal run. Now he’s back with a new team, new coaching staff, and new rules for what’s a foul. His usage rate is way up, 31.2%, one of the top in the league, and his minutes per game now stands at 37.4. That’s second in the league and the most of his career.
Yeah, I can see how that leads to an immediate funk. He’s not alone either. Players like Damian Lillard (also on Team USA) and Bradley Beal (who left Team USA due to COVID) are also starting off the season unusually slow.
The rules are certainly part of the story for Tatum. Ime Udoka has repeatedly chastised his team and Tatum for letting officiating impact their game. On his worst nights, it seems Tatum not only gets caught up on looking for calls on the shots he misses, but also on the shots he makes.
The problem for Tatum is that he’s never been a big “and-1” one guy. According to Cleaning The Glass, Tatum has never been better than 44th percentile in drawing fouls on his made shots, and this year he’s getting fewer than ever.
If Tatum is too caught up in that, then he’s not focused enough on the other end, which makes the whole cold start even worse. It’s one thing to be more frozen than Elsa on the offensive end, it’s another to compound those misses with turnovers and less-than-stellar defense.
That’s Tatum at his worst, though, and being fair, Tatum has been doing (or trying to do) what he’s been asked to do. He’s been making some quicker decisions with the ball and giving it up when he’s drawn two defenders. He does seem to be processing the coaching requests and trying to deliver.
In the process, Tatum seems to be dipping back into some bad habits. Not only is he getting too bogged down in complaining to officials, he’s slipping back into too many midrange shots. HIs shots at the rim are at the lowest point of his career, with just 16.5% coming from that area. There’s a tiny uptick in the shots from 10-16 feet and a big 6% jump in shots between 16 feet and the 3-point line.
The problem is that Tatum is hitting more from there than anywhere on the floor, which sounds counterintuitive, but that’s the worst shot in basketball, and 45.9% from that area is peak inefficiency. It’s just high enough to want to keep shooting from there, but not high enough where launching from 3 just makes more sense.
The bottom line is every Celtics opponent would sign up for Tatum shooting all his shots from that range and being happy with 46%.
As bad as things are at the rim for Tatum right now, he simply has to fight through whatever lack of calls he’s getting and continue to attack and be more selective.
Take this shot from very early on last night:
On the surface, okay, not the worst shot in the world for Tatum. He got the shot blocker Jarrett Allen off his feet, it’s a shot he’s made plenty of times in his life, and he’s technically in the paint.
However, it’s still, basically, a short mid-range fadeaway with 16 seconds on the shot clock, two minutes into the game. This is what settling and relying on old habits looks like.
From Tatum’s perspective, it’s early and he’s trying to get a feel for the game. It is a shot he’s hit forever, he got a guy in the air so his look is fairly clean -- why not? Jayson Tatum is supposed to be able to hit that shot.
Except he’s drawn everyone’s attention with the paint touch and kicking it out to Marcus Smart for a swing over to Dennis Schröder, who would likely drive and get a second paint touch there is a much more sound play. Tatum, in fact, would probably be able to relocate in that situation and either get a very open look from 3 or a better driving opportunity.
Here’s how I see this all boiling down:
There are some real reasons for Tatum to come into this season a bit cold. The slow start is not surprising, but now Tatum is sort of feeding into it. He's not shooting well at the rim at all, and part of that is frustration over a lack of calls. So his response seems to be to just go back to the spots on the floor he's most comfortable with regardless of efficiency.
It’s sort of like the people of Springfield continuing to dig for the cat burglar’s non-existent treasure and then exclaiming they’ll dig their way out.
“No, no, ... dig UP, stupid.”
Tatum is too often trying to dig up, rather than settle down. He’s actually done a pretty good job with most of what Udoka has been asking. Now he has to stop searching for his offense and let it find him. Just like his coach is asking him to make the right plays, he just has to keep taking the right shots and know they will fall.
