A look at the top games and prospect matchups this week...
NO. 8 OKLAHOMA AT NO. 13 BAYLOR, NOON on FOX
We’ve covered Oklahoma a couple of times and we will go deeper with updates later this year but with it being a top 15 match-up let’s drill into the Baylor Bears. Baylor has a good offensive line, albeit no top picks, but they’ll need to win against Oklahoma’s talented defensive line.
Here’s who I am watching:
Baylor
DB #8 Jalen Pitre: If I could list his position as football player, I would. He lines up in the slot, has played safety and can even play in the box as a dime linebacker. Wherever he lines up, he makes plays (50 tackles, 12.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 5 turnovers) The knock on him is that he’s a tweener; not big enough for the NFL box and not athletic enough to be primarily a nickel corner. But he’s a team captain and All-Big 12 Academic performer. He’s the type of well-rounded player the Patriots evaluate with special teams and a specific role in mind. He should in the top 100 picks (and he’s rising).
DT #62 Siaki Ika: The LSU transfer is a big nose tackle (6-foot-4, 350 pounds) at the next level. His ceiling would be a player like former Bengal, Domata Peko. Given the snaps would be limited, albeit important plays, he’s a Day 3 pick at this point unless he were to stay in school (he has more eligibility).
LB #2 Terrel Bernard: This guy has had a productive career for Baylor. He’s undersized for a LB but really excels at track and trace tackling. He’ll need to answer injury questions but he’s likely a 3rd or 4th rounder.
RB #7 Abram Smith: He’s a Patriots sleeper to watch because of his versatility. He is the very definition of a 3-way player. He was a starter at LB last year before moving to RB this year and winning the starting role. He already has almost 1,100 yards this season. He’s not a top RB prospect, nor a top LB prospect, and that will scare some teams. However, teams that value versatility and special teams, like the Patriots, will pick him.
Oklahoma (from previous breakdown)
Spencer Rattler (QB) #7: The presumed top QB/top pick in most mock drafts. I am going against the grain and saying he won’t be the top QB. He’s not big (listed as 6’1) and there are questions about him being a leader/culture builder that you’d want as a QB (especially as a top pick).
The arm talent and production (he’s going to put up big numbers) for the Sooners will lead to someone taking a chance. He’s extremely accurate when he sets himself and can pick a defense apart on short and medium routes. He doesn’t always square himself to throw on platform. It’s exacerbated when he takes chances downfield (which he does because of his arm strength and above-average accuracy). The comparison is that he's a combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. He’s not as good as either, at least not yet. Likely Round 1.
Nik Bonitto (LB) #11: One of the best pass rushers in the country and I expect him to be a first-team All-American by the end of the season. His top trait is the speed off the LOS, displaying his elite twitch. Bonitto finds ways to make plays in every game and he’s really efficient against the pass. Better prospect than current Patriot Ronnie Perkins. To get on the field, beyond sub-packages, he’ll need to get bigger and play more off the ball. Someone will draft him for his upside, likely 1st round.
Isaiah Thomas (DL) #95: Moves along the line for the Sooners but his position at the next level is as a DE. He’s got a pro-frame and great length with the ability to pack on more “good” weight. He’s a bit of a late bloomer, not really playing much until last season and he’s also a smart kid. If he has a good season his draft stock will skyrocket. Even so, I could see an organization betting on his potential and frame (like the Vikings did with Danielle Hunter) to pick him within the first 100 selections.
Kennedy Brooks (RB): Underrated RB that should be a well-known name by the end of the season. I like Kennedy because of his size and elite production. He averages over 7 YAC and if he stays healthy this year he'll have 3 years over 1,000 yards rushing. He’s very patient, trusts his vision and is smooth in his cuts (think former Steeler Le'veon Bell). His battery mate RB Eric Gray is also a good draftable player. Brooks will be a top 75 player.
Perrion Winfrey (DT) #8: Good defensive line prospect who is more of a penetrator than occupier at the DT position. He’s a threat as a pass rusher but would start as a sub package player at the next level. Think of a slightly bigger version of former Patriot Adam Butler. He’s a round 3 or round 4 prospect.
MIAMI AT FLORIDA STATE, 3:30 PM on ESPN
These two proud programs are working to build a better foundation. That foundation used to be laid in high-level NFL prospects from Florida which made this game “must-watch” for both the intensity and the talent. The current talent gap is a long way from the glory years of 1990’s and early 2000’s for both these programs but hopefully there’s intensity since this game matters to both the Seminoles and Hurricanes.
Here’s who I am watching:
Florida State
DE #11 Jermaine Johnson II: He has the capability to be a 3-down player at the NFL level. He has 54 tackles & 11 TFL including 8 sacks. He needs to improve technique, but he has all the physical traits and measurables you’d want in an edge player. For those Netflix fans, you may recall Johnson from the show Last Chance U. He wasn’t heavily featured even though he was their top recruit. He went to Georgia and played well in a reserve role but couldn’t get on the field because of their ridiculous defensive depth. He’s likely a second-rounder and some cycles.
LB #33 Amari Gainer: He’s been productive but never game changing at Florida State. He’s a team leader, has some good traits, and plays hard. However, he sometimes gets lost in Florida State’s poor play and poor coaching. He should return to school next year (the Noles should get better) and continue to build his resume. If he does declare, I don’t think he’ll be a Patriots target unless they think he’s undervalued at the end of the draft.
Future Stars
S #10 Jammie Robinson: He’ll be a household name next year. He’s a good football player who has plus football instincts. He’s leading the Noles with 64 tackles and has 4 forced turnovers.
RB #0 Jashaun Corbin: He has ideal NFL size, (6-foot, 221 pounds) with breakaway speed. He’s averaging almost 7 YPC and has 747 yards on the season. He can also catch it out of the backfield. Right now, he’s more of a home run threat than an every-down NFL back.
Miami
WR #11 Charleston Rambo: He’s coming off a huge 3 game stretch of 23 catches, 438 yards, and 3 TDs. He’s been the Hurricanes' best player this season and I’d compare him to former LA Ram, Josh Reynolds.
TE #85 Will Mallory: He was billed as the next player from TE U, but Mallory gets extra credit because of his helmet. He’s athletic and will likely show up in this game but he needs to improve his consistency and blocking. I expect he’d get drafted (he split snaps last year with 5th-round Houston selection, Brevin Jordan) but he should utilize his remaining eligibility.
Future Star
T #60 Zion Nelson: He started at LT as a true freshman. He had a very difficult game against Alabama but his play has improved as the season has progressed. He needs to improve technique to match his outstanding traits. This is a good match-up against Seminole DE, Jermaine Johnson. Comparable would-be current Miami Dolphin, Austin Jackson.
NO. 1 GEORGIA at TENNESSEE, 3:30 PM on CBS
We’ve covered Georgia a couple of times and will go deeper with updates later this year. We are including this game because of strength-on-strength matchups and we haven’t covered the Tennessee Vols. Georgia's defense is well documented and rightfully so (no one has scored 14 points yet). They are dominating. The Vols score as fast as anyone in the country and they’re having a solid season given all the talent that transferred away from the program with the recent coaching change & threat of NCAA sanctions.
Here’s who I am watching:
Tennessee
CB #2 Alontae Taylor: He’s a Round 3 (top end) or Round 4 or 5 pick on the low end. Taylor is regarded as a team leader, especially since he didn't transfer when many of the top players did. He has only 1 TD so far this season and had a pick-6 INT last week in a close game against Kentucky. Some teams may view him more as a safety because of his size, others may view him as a zone corner. He’s a potential Patriots target.
QB #5 Hendon Hooker: He’s a transfer from Virginia Tech who didn’t take over the starting role until a couple games into the season. However, the game he entered (against Pitt and current QB prospect Kenny Pickett) got scouts attention. He’s gone from a free agent to a player that requires deeper evaluation.
He has good accuracy stats, he definitely has arm talent, and he can run the football by design or when the play breaks down. His top target is former USC WR, and Day 3 prospect, Velus Jones Jr. I am looking forward to seeing Hooker attack Georgia’s top defense. If he has a good day, he’ll start skyrocketing draft boards, otherwise he’s a Day 3 selection (smartest move may be to take an extra year of eligibility).
G #68 Cade Mays: He can play every position on the line and started his career at Georgia. He’ll finish his career with almost 40 starts within the SEC. He’s played well this year, he hasn’t given up a sack and only 3 pressures. The Patriots will add at least one selection along the offensive line and this game tape (against Georgia’s elite defensive line) will be great “tape”.
NO. 16 NORTH CAROLINA STATE AT NO. 12 WAKE FOREST, 7:30 PM on ACC Network
We covered UNC at Wake Forest in detail last week and recap the performances below. We’re covering this one because it will likely decide the ACC Atlantic division. NCST has several NFL prospects that are under the radar but potential targets for the Patriots.
Here’s who I am watching:
NC State
LT #79 Ikem Ekwonu: He’s a first-rounder and Patriots will be looking for tackle help in the draft. Ekwonu is a really physical player who has the ability to bully players with his strength and his strike. He may end up at guard at the next-level, but he could stay at tackle and be just fine - like the LA Chargers first-rounder, Rashawn Slater.
C #50 Grant Gibson: He started his career as a defensive tackle before moving to center. He’s started over 30 straight games and can get under pads to drive blocks. I have concerns about his arm length, especially in pass protection at the next level. His official measurables will be important. He could be a top 5 center.
DT #48 Cory Durden: He’s a transfer from FSU and does a good job getting pressure, often relying on a bull rush. Good athlete for his size, 6-foot-4, 310 pounds. He doesn’t play to his level of talent often enough but there’s only so many guys with his size and athleticism which means he gets his name called.
WR # 86 Emeka Emezie: Good, productive player who’s a possession receiver that uses his size (think former Patriot Mohammed Sanu as a ceiling). Some teams may ask him to put on more size to be used as more of a move tight end. However, this is a deep WR class which will hurt his draft stock - likely end of Day 3.
Future Star
RB #7 Zonovan Knight: He goes by “Bam”, which is a great nickname for a running back. He had offseason shoulder surgery, which is a concern but he’s a strong, patient runner that would fit any scheme. He has good size (5-foot-11, 210 pounds) with room to add more weight. Under-the-radar player (different style but like former Wolfpack Nyheim Hines) who will be a productive player in the pros.
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Recapping Last Week’s Matchups
NO. 12 WAKE FOREST: WR #5 Jaquarii Roberson is a good player and came up big in some key moments. He finished with 7 catches for 111 yards, 2 TD’s...QB Sam Hartman had a mixed bag game. In one regard, he had 7 total TD’s and almost 480 yards of offense. On the other, he wasn’t accurate enough (below 50% & had two INT’s). The reality is that he's a great competitor but not a great QB. I still think he should get drafted next year but he’s a roster QB...T Zach Tom was good in the game. He did get dinged up pulling on a running play...WR A.T. Perry was one of the future stars we referenced last week, and he showed up big. He had 6 catches, 129 yards & 2 TDs. His size makes him difficult to cover.
UNC: QB #7 Sam Howell is very impressive as a competitor, but his arm did not impress me. I am not sure how he goes as a Top 10 pick (or even first-rounder) unless teams get more comfortable with his arm strength & accuracy. He finished the day with 16/26 for 216 yards & 1 TD throwing. He also had 104 yards rushing (and he’s tough as a runner) ...G Joshua Ezeudu had a bully game. The Tar Heels ran behind him pretty effectively most of the day...RB Ty Chandler had his best game of the year. He had 243 yards of total offense, including 4 TD’s and almost 10 yards per carry...WR Josh Downs was limited by the attention given to him by the Demon Deacons. They focused on stopping him (and Howell) and UNC took the yards on the ground. He finished with 4 catches for 35 yards.
LIBERTY: QB Malik Willis (and Ole Miss QB Matt Corral) had 16 scouts in attendance for this game (including the Patriots and the Bills) This game was billed as an opportunity to see some top QB prospects. Candidly, I wasn’t that impressed with Willis but as I said last week, someone is going to fall for his traits and believe in their ability to coach him to his potential. The hope is that he’s a future Steve McNair (ball jumps out of his hand and he’s very athletic, talented). Especially with how the NFL game has evolved towards more of a passing league with better athletes, I see him entering the league more like former Viking, Tarvaris Jackson.
Liberty was overmatched by Ole Miss. Willis’ stat line was 16-25, 173 yards but 3 INT’s. He did rush for 71 yards and 1 TD. One thing I called out last week, he doesn’t get the ball out fast enough, especially with a weak offensive line, and that was evident right away. He took 9 sacks...
Corral is better, I liked his short and intermediate ball. I would worry about his deep ball in the league, especially if he had to play in a division that has weather.
NO. 19 PURDUE: WR David Bell had himself a day in the upset of Michigan State. He finished the day with 11 catches for 217 yards and 1 TD. In games against top 3 teams this year, Bell had produced 22 catches for 457 yards and 2 TD’s. He’s a big game player...DE George Karlaftis was effective early, with a TFL and then forcing and recovering a fumble on the first drive. He had a couple of other pressures, (he can be good with his hands) but otherwise held to 3 tackles.
LSU: RB Tyrion Davis-Price finished the night with 104 yards on 23 carries. He was a really important part of the LSU game plan in keeping the Alabama offense off the field and controlling as much clock as possible. He showed good speed on a long run but did put a ball on the ground...DT Neil Farrell Jr. was really effective inside against the Alabama offensive line. The Tide ran the ball well and their lead RB (Brian Robinson) is an NFL player. They were held to a season-low 6 yards rushing. Farrell Jr. finished with 7 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, & 2 pressures. It was his best game of the year...Cordale Flott was an injury scratch. The Bama WR’s that he was slated to cover (Jameson Williams, John Metchie) finished with 19 catches for 223 yards...G Ed Ingram played well; I was impressed given the level of competition on the inside. Best lineman for the Tigers...RT Austin Deculus was better than the other tackle but did give up a number of pressures to Bama LB Will Anderson (one of the best players in the country) ...LB Damone Clark showed off his improved playmaking ability with nice sideline to sideline coverage. Finished with 8 tackles, 2 TFL & 1 sack. I was more impressed with him than last year’s LSU LB (and current Dallas Cowboy) Jabril Cox.
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