After watching some Panthers film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the 5-4 Patriots (favored by 2.5) against the Cleveland Browns (5-4), three factors I'm worried about along with some video analysis, and my game pick.
CONFIDENT LIST
1. Patriots will be able to run vs. Browns' aggressiveness.
On paper, it looks like a mismatch. The Browns have the No. 5 rush defense according FootballOutsiders.com's DVOA metric. Patriots rush offense is 17th. As a group, the Browns have some nice pieces up front with players like DLs Myles Garrett, Malik Jackson, Andrew Billings, Jadeveon Clowney and LB Anthony Walker.
But there will definitely be some opportunities for the Patriots, and I expect them to take advantage of them, and they need to. The Patriots can't get into a game where Mac Jones is dropping back to pass 40-plus times against these pass rushers and the cover men the Browns have in the back end.
The Patriots will definitely take care of Garrett, if he can go (he's missed practice this week). I expect the Patriots to take advantage of how Clowney and Jackson freelance and shoot gaps up front, especially Clowney. Always immensely talented, but he will do what he wants and leave teammates hung out to dry. Patriots need to have a specific blocking plan for Walker on the second level. He fills gaps exceedingly well and cleans up a lot of messes.
2. Get Baker Mayfield out of structure with different looks.
Mayfield is also talented, if short, and is at his best when he fights his hero persona and plays within the structure of the offense. Unfortunately for the Browns, that is few and far between. Mayfield seems wedded to his pre-snap looks. If he gets something different after the snap, that's when he starts to run around and frenetic is not good for Mayfield.
Expect this to be a big pre-snap/post-snap look game for the Patriots. Get Mayfield thinking one thing for the snap, confuse him after the snap and that's when he becomes Bad Baker. But the rush has to be there as well. I'm not sure it will be. More on that in a minute.
3. Patriots will limit the Browns' rushing attack.
Whether or not Nick Chubb (Covid) plays on Sunday (D'Ernest Johnson was pretty good against the Broncos a few weeks back), I expect the Patriots to make Job 1 shutting down the Browns' running game. The Browns will get a few big plays with their backs, but the key is limiting them consistently on early downs, so the Patriots can use designer looks, coverages and pressure against Mayfield on third down.
If the Browns rush for 150 yards, the Patriots are going to have a hard time winning this game. I don't see that happening.
WORRIED LIST
1. Not enough pass rush.
The Browns have arguably the league's best interior linemen in LG Joe Bitonio, C JC Tretter (has missed practice this week) and RG Wyatt Teller. LT Jedrick Wills is solid. RT Blake Hance is a huge weak spot that Matthew Judon or Josh Uche has to absolutely dominate in passing situations.
We'll get a pretty good barometer on exactly how good Christian Barmore is this week against that interior. If Barmore is shut down, will the Patriots be able to hurry Mayfield enough to get him frenetic and throwing balls to the defense? It's a legit concern. Very interested to see Barmore in this game.
2. Can the Patriots play their CFL offense?
The Patriots have gone out of their way to stay out of third downs with Mac Jones, especially long yardage, for good reason. Third down in the NFL is a tough place to make a living series after series. For that reason, the Patriots have been more aggressive on first and second downs.
One of the issues I take with the Browns is why DC Joe Woods does not play more man coverage. CBs Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Greedy Williams, and safeties John Johnson and Ronnie Harrison are all really, really good at man coverage. But the Browns play a lot of zone coverage until third downs. If the Patriots get into a situation where they are facing the Browns' man coverage on every third down, I'm not sure they can get open without scheme and busts.
The Patriots need to be very aggressive on first downs in this game to neutralize the Browns' obvious talent.
3. Myles Garrett against the Patriots' tackles.
Yes, the Patriots have eliminated ends in the past like JJ Watt and Joey Bosa, more recently. But those guys are 3-4 ends and play inside. They're easier to target and dedicate resources to.
Garrett plays on the end, almost always over the left tackle so that means a lot of Isaiah Wynn. Yes, the Patriots will continue to give him a lot of help with tight ends and backs chipping. But that still might not be enough. Garrett could wreck this game with one hit that keeps Mac Jones sped up. Patriots can't let that happen.
GAME PICK
Patriots -2.5, 45.5 o/u
The Patriots are dealing with running back availability, but the Browns have much more talent possibly sidelined this week. If Chubb doesn't play, that is a huge swing in this game. Forget it if Garrett doesn't play. In any event, I don't trust Mayfield against this defense and Bill Belichick. And Josh McDaniels will have a good plan. This is not a complicated defensive scheme.
Patriots 23, Browns 20.