The Patriots have won three straight and over .500 for the first time in over a year and stand only a half-game out of first in the AFC East.
Certainly the defense has stepped up, allowing an average of 14.3 points per game during the winning streak. On offense, the rushing game has averaged 147 yards per game.
The passing game, however, has not kept pace.
After hitting a high-water mark in the Week 6 35-29 loss to the Cowboys, Mac Jones and the rest of the passing offense has hit a lull. Jones' passer rating, yards per attempt and completion percentage have all taken a tumble during the winning streak.
"I know we hit some stretches periodically in games where we've... you know, we went through a little dry spell there in LA, where we had a few incompletions that we would like to have hit," Josh McDaniels told reporters this week. "But I think Mac is working really hard to try to master and improve in all levels of quarterback play.
"I wouldn't say it's one thing or another. Our whole entire offense, it starts with me. It's my responsibility. We've had flashes and stretches where we've been very productive and consistent with our play. Then we've had some other stretches in games where maybe we didn't do the right things or we weren't able to produce as much as we would like to help our team win. ... When I look at the stretches we've had when we didn't necessarily produce as much as we wanted to, like the first quarter in Carolina, we had a lot of uncharacteristic penalties. We haven't had a lot of pre-snap penalties all year and all of a sudden we kind of had a few there. We have to be mentally ready to go. We have to be focused on our assignments. We have to do a good job of communicating with each other. Start every play with all 11 guys connected to one another, so that we're working off the same Mike call, the front, whatever it might be, and then try to go out there and do our job as well as we can do it while playing fast and aggressive. There's not one thing. Mac has a lot of responsibilities on every play. So does every other player on our offense. It takes 11 guys doing the right thing to produce a good play on offense. Our consistency has improved some but we gotta work toward a higher level of consistency for four quarters of the game."
Jones' ... let's call it a lull ... shows up in his advanced stats, and also my own charting. NFL NextGen Stats has a tool called Completion Percentage Above Expectation: "A passer’s actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage." It's not the end-all, be-all, but it's one of the tools in the toolbelt to evaluate play across the league.
For the first six weeks, Jones was always on the positive side, even if the Saints loss was a modest number, and he was in the top half of the league all but that one week. Since having his two best weeks against the Texans and Dallas, Jones has put up three negative numbers in a row.
That mostly meshes out with my own numbers (on right in chart), which had Jones strong in four games (Miami, Tampa, Houston, Dallas), and struggling against New Orleans and in the previous two games at LA and Carolina.
If the rushing game has been going strong, what's the issue, is there concern this could linger, and what will the team do to adjust? Before we get into the unit grades, film analysis and 3 up/3 down, let's tackle those questions.
To these eyes, I simply think this is a case of Jones getting sped up in the pocket. Outside of the Houston game (24.4 percent), Jones has felt pressure on at least 30 percent of his dropbacks. For a pocket QB who doesn't create a lot of pressure by scrambling to make plays out of structure, that's a high percentage. That takes a toll.
Even in the blowout win over the Jets, Jones was pressured 32.6 percent (eight hits). In the Chargers win, it was 30 percent (seven hits). And on Sunday, when the offense barely had to do anything, Jones was pressured 32 percent and hit five times, including this vicious blindside hit.
Those kinds of hits take a toll. Oftentimes, they cause the quarterback to speed up and feel pressure that isn't there. That looked to be the case on these two incompletions (after a Jonnu Smith drop) that fizzled a promising red zone drive. Jones wasn't close on either of these passes, and they were thrown early before he felt pressure:
There is also the issue that Jones could be experiencing a little physical and mental fatigue.
When he was at Alabama last year — his only starting season — Jones had 406 dropbacks in a system he knew like the back of his hand over a 13-game schedule. It also included back-to-back bye weeks the first two weeks of November, and nearly two weeks off from the SEC Championship to the Rose Bowl. So Jones basically played 13 games in 17 weeks.
Since joining the Patriots, Jones has had to learn a new system, compete for the starting job with Cam Newton day in and day out (and two joint practices), played in three exhibitions, and nine regular-season games basically nonstop since Aug. 12 with only the 13 days off before the season opener. If you combine preseason and regular season, Jones is already at 391 dropbacks — nearly the same number he had all last year at Alabama, and the Patriots still play four games before their bye week.
And consider this: Jones had zero games with more than 32 attempts before the playoffs his final season at Alabama. Through nine pro games, Jones has already exceeded that in six out of nine games.
"I keep telling myself this, too, because I think it's important for us to keep perspective: These are his first nine games in the NFL," McDaniels said. "We ask a lot of the quarterback position, mentally. We ask a lot of the quarterback position after the ball has been snapped. Sometimes I see a lot of progress in things that don't necessarily show up in the stat sheet. I just feel like each day is an opportunity for him to grow and improve. And I think it's really important that we don't measure. I'm not worried about measuring him right now. I think every day and every week is an opportunity to make progress. Three years from now, you can start talking about enough of a sample size to look back and see where we've really grown and measured from his rookie year to some other year. But right now we're in the middle of his rookie year. I think daily progress is the goal. Mac's work ethic and attitude have been tremendous."
There is also the issue of commonality in the games Jones has struggle the most: Saints, Chargers and Panthers. Those happen to be the 4th (CAR), 9th (LAC) and 13th (NO) passing DVOA defenses, and they are all very fast. Everyone says the speed of the game is the area where NFL rookies have to get up to speed. Well, Jones has had a baptism by fire in his NFL education at the halfway point.
Do I think this is a big issue? No. If the Patriots can get through the next two games, there is a mini-bye after the Falcons Thursday night game before two of the toughest games remaining on the schedule: Titans and at Buffalo. Then the Patriots get their bye week. A good chance to take a beat and settle down.
Pocket passers getting sped for a stretch happens to the best of them, including you-know-who. This is probably Jones' first experience with this and he'll learn from it like he does anything else.
And it would really help if his linemen did a better job blocking early in games to allow Jones to get into the flow uninterrupted, and for his teammates to stop getting behind the sticks with mindless penalties.
Jones has hit a bit of a lull in his rookie season and that should be expected. There's nothing wrong with it. He's just going to need more help from his teammates to get going in the other direction, like he was against Houston and Dallas.
Here are the positional ratings against the Panthers:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2 out of 5)
Think we've covered this.
Running backs (5 out of 5)
Not sure I could love this group — all of them — more. Damien Harris is the bellcow, Brandon Bolden continues to show surprisingly quick feet and soft hands, and Rhamondre Stevenson was a revelation. His speed shows up big on film, and his strength ... the stiff arm below was lethal. By the way, this whole play from the blocking to finish was ... (chef's kiss).
Receivers (2 out of 5)
Speaking of reasons why the passing game is scuffling a bit, let's not leave out this group, which isn't exactly hitting on all cylinders. ... Jakobi Meyers had one of his worst game with the Patriots, and Jonnu Smith wasn't much better. Hunter Henry had the TD and a third-down catch, but he had a false start and his blocking caused the strip/sack. ... I wasn't sure if Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne played, but they didn't need to pass much.
Offensive line (4 out of 5)
Thought this group did a really nice job overall, even if Isaiah Wynn keeps getting blamed for sacks that aren't his fault. David Andrews and Shaq Mason were excellent to led the way, followed by Mike Onwenu, Wynn and Ted Karras.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Don't look now, but Davon Godchaux (nose to end) and Deatrich Wise (end to bench) were both demoted in base against the run (slow clap), and the results speak for themselves in the below clip. And wouldn't you know it? Wise had his best pass rush game in a long time, probably because his legs were fresher from not getting pummeled by double teams in the run game. ... Running out of superlatives for Christian Barmore, who had another team-leading nine impactful plays, including, ho-hum, stopping a TD and contributing heavily to a pick-six. .... Matthew Judon had five of his own.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Sometimes I watch Dont'a Hightower slam his shoulder into linemen and fullbacks in the trenches and I wonder if he has cement blocks in his shoulder pads — he destroys players with that shoulder. Looked good inside and outside. ... Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai both had coverage busts for a combined 74 yards allowed. ... Ridiculous Jamie Collins INT. I just kept chuckling watching it on video. It's really absurd.
Secondary (5 out of 5)
Really not much work for this group, but JC Jackson had his two gifts, I mean picks. ... Myles Bryant always shows up tough on at least two plays a game. Tough tackler that little bugger. I would not want to be tackled by him. ... Adrian Phillips with a forced fumble, hurry and half stuff.
THREE UP
Christian Barmore: His functional and visible football IQ on the field — since he started — is going to cause a lot of front offices to kick themselves if this continues in his career.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Patriots have a little Thunder & Lightning thing going on if the rookie hangs on to the ball, and keeps doing the right things to get on the field on Sundays.
Matthew Judon: Which team is going to be the first to try to shut him down. Anyone? Bueller?
THREE DOWN
Jakobi Meyers: It started with the bobbled third-down pass, and ended with a false start and some tough run blocks. A rough day at the office.
Jahlani Tavai: When you play five snaps in a game, you can't blow a 53-yard coverage. That will get you a lot of stares in film review for a unit that was basically pitching a shutout.
Jonnu Smith: Is still fighting it in many ways, including with the ball in his hands where he looks like the Brandin Cooks of TEs — looks like a beast, will make a few plays, that lacks the playmaking feel gene.