It might be nice to imagine Carlos Correa signing a long-term deal with the Red Sox. And while we're at it, maybe Max Scherzer, too.
They're among the top names in a strong free agent class this winter, with Correa arguably representing the cream of the position player class and Scherzer, his age notwithstanding, probably the top-ranked starter.
Correa would improve the Red Sox' infield defense, an aspect that could use an upgrade. Xander Bogaerts could then shift to second base and solve another issue. Meanwhile, Scherzer would deepen the Sox' pitching and provide them with another top-of-the-rotation piece to go with Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi.
But let's face it: these two signings are almost certainly not going to happen, for a variety of reasons.
Signing Correa to a deal of at least $200 million would create issues for the Sox going forward, and could potentially push Bogaerts to opt-out after 2022, or at the very least, demand a contract of equal or greater value to in order to stay. Then there's the matter of having to extend Rafael Devers this winter or next. Adding Correa to that mix and retaining both Bogaerts and Devers would mean upwards of $750 million committed to three players, a kind of financial straight-jacket the Sox would prefer to avoid.
As for Scherzer, all indications are that he would prefer to pitch on the West Coast, and he'll have strong interest from both the Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels -- to say nothing of potential bids from the Padres and maybe Giants.
So, if those are two are, for various reasons, out of reach, what are some reasonable free agent targets for the Sox to pursue?
Glad you asked.
Let's remember that the best free agent signings of last winter were relatively modest in terms of salary (Kiké Hernández, Hunter Renfroe) and that, for the most part, Chaim Bloom views free agency as a means of augmenting a roster rather than seeing it as a mean of obtaining top-of-the-market talent.
With that said, some possibilities:
STARTING PITCHERS:
Steven Matz: Matz would give the Red Sox a solid mid-rotation starter, who has already proven the ability to compete and succeed in the AL East. Assuming the Sox extend a qualifying offer to Eduardo Rodriguez and further assuming Rodriguez accepts, returning to the Sox for at least the 2022 season, Matz would give the Sox three lefties in the rotation. But that shouldn't be an issue, since depth and quality arms are far more important than being too lefthanded. The Red Sox have some pitching coming through the system, but it will take another year before Jay Groome or Brayan Bello are ready, and perhaps, for Thaddeus Ward and Bryan Mata to fully recover from Tommy John surgery. In the meantime, Matz is a solid option who can give the Sox another established major league starter, one who's durable (29 or more starts in each of the last three full seasons) and could provide a bridge between the current crop and the next class of pitchers expected from within.
Rich Hill: At 42, Hill might not be someone who can be counted on for 30 starts, but that's OK. He would represent more of a depth piece to complement what they have on hand. If the Sox could get 20 starts out of Hill, that would be welcome. He could, in the first half of the season, provide additional development time for Connor Seabold or Kutter Crawford at Triple A. Moreover, Hill would be a relative bargain, and as a Massachusetts native, would probably take less to be able to stay home in Boston, where he and his family have a home. And it never helps to have one more veteran voice, someone who share his experience of 17 seasons in the big leagues.
RELIEVERS
Collin McHugh: Like Hill, this would be a return engagement, though McHugh never actually pitched an inning for the Sox. He signed with them in spring training 2020, coming off an elbow procedure, but had some setbacks and when the pandemic struck, decided to opt-out of pitching for the season. He returned to full health last year for the Rays, and serving as both an opener and a bulk reliever, enjoyed a terrific season, going 6-1 with a 1.55 ERA over 37 games and 64 innings. If the Sox are going to transition both Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock into the rotation, they could use someone to piggyback both. When Houck and Whitlock give the Sox four or five innings, McHugh could serve as a bridge from the starter to some high-leverage relievers in the later innings.
Kendall Graveman: In essence, Graveman would replace Adam Ottavino, as a hard-throwing, late-inning matchup nightmare against righthanders, who had just a .348 OPS against him last year between Seattle and Houston. Also, if the Sox can't get Matt Barnes back on track, Graveman has some closing experience and could provide an alternative in the ninth inning.
POSITION PLAYERS
Cesar Hernandez: Maybe prospect Jeter Downs will be the Red Sox' second baseman of the future. Maybe that job will go, in a season or two, to Bogaerts. But for now, the Sox need someone to man the position for 2022. It's clear that the Sox are better suited with Hernandez in center rather than at second base. Hernandez, 31, is a nice short-term solution. He provides some pop (21 homers) and while his defensive metrics slipped a year ago, he was still well-above average at the position as recently as 2020. He wouldn't cost much and he'd provide more offensive sock than Jose Iglesias, who wouldn't be a bad fit to return as a utility man, capable of filling in at three infield spots.
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The Arizona Fall League has been underway for a few weeks now, and we checked in with a major league scout and asked him for his impressions of some Red Sox prospects.
1B Triston Casas: "I like him. He's going to be a pretty good major league player. And he did a pretty good job at first base, as well. He's not just a guy you stick over there. It looked like he handles the glove pretty well. I saw him take BP a few times and I liked his approach. Obviously, he's a big strong kid who can hit the ball out of the park. But in BP, he wasn't just trying to just kill balls. I see the Freddie Freeman comparisons; that would be a good one. I saw him drive the ball that way. He's got that leverage, being as big as he is and he's not just a guy who will try to 'turn and burn' on the ball, trying to hit homers all the time.''
INF Jeter Downs: "I saw him hit a long homer to left-center. I know he didn't have a great year (at Triple A Worcester). He handled himself well at shortstop. It looked like he was a little bit pull-oriented in his approach, but he definitely has the tools. He's got power in the bat, good strength and agility, and he's athletic. He looks the part.
RHP Josh Winckowski: "I liked him a lot. He's got a chance. He's a big strong kid. He's not real smooth in all of his actions, but it somehow works. He repeats his delivery well, which is a big thing. He had good life and good sink, with a good downward plane to his fastball. I know in this era, everyone wants to elevate (the fastball), and he can certainly do that. But he also showed me a good downward plane when he wanted to change eye levels, primarily with the fastball. With his secondary stuff, I like his slider. His fastball sat at 94 mph and got up to 96 mph. He was a little bit wild that day -- he walked three in a couple of innings I saw him, but what I liked was, he kept his poise and composure and just continued to compete when he didn't have a great outing. I'd say he's a back-end starter. I think I'd put him at No. 5, but I could see him developing into a No. 4. I think he could also be a quality high-leverage guy, a really good reliever in the seventh inning, or possibly eighth inning guy. But for a guy like this, you've got to continue to start him. I see a big league pitcher, for sure.''
RHP A.J. Politi: "Good overall stuff. I saw him touch 97 mph when I saw him, but he sat at 93 mph. I only saw him one time. I see him more as a relief option. His slider is more of a slider-cutter combination. It doesn't have great depth, but it can be effective. He was also able to throw his curveball for strikes and when he gets to two strikes, he can add some velocity and late-break, so it's got swing and chase to it.''
LHP Brendan Celluci: "He's fastball, curveball and slider. Nothing really stood out, but he had some pitchability with the fastball/slider. He has some struggle with command and has some rotational issues with his delivery where he gets side-to-side trying to stay through his delivery. But when you have a lefty who gets the ball up to 95-96 mph, touching 97 mph, you pay a little attention. He's kind of an undervalued guy who isn't on any top prospect lists, but he's only 23 so he's got time to works out the kinks in his delivery. Lefties with that kind of velocity pitch in the big leagues and some of them do it for a number of years.''
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I noted earlier this week that the two most consistent franchises over the last five years had been the Houston Astros (five straight trips to the ALCS) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (five trips to the NLCS in the last six years, five division titles), but together, they had combined to win just two World Series titles (one each).
Given that Bloom is aiming for sustainability -- the ability to compete for a championship on an annual basis -- I asked him whether winning just one championship in that stretch was at all reason to re-think his strategy. After all, when you're perennially good enough to be among the last four teams standings in October, shouldn't you expect to win more than once in five years?
"I think it just highlights the nature of our sport,'' Bloom said. "It's very difficult to repeat and it's very difficult to win a championship. In that time that those teams have been elite, no one else has won more than once, either. They've given themselves a chance every year to do it. And when you look at some teams who've won World Series -- I think you could say it about Atlanta this year, I think you could say it about Washington two years ago -- these are teams that have been in the postseason a lot, but they didn't necessarily win it all the year, on paper, when they had their best team.
"There's a lot of different things that happen in the postseason. You have to outplay everybody in October to win it all. But in order to do that, you have to be playing in October.''