After watching some Panthers film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the 4-4 Patriots (favored by 3.5 on the road at BetUS.com) against the Carolina Panthers (4-4), three factors I'm worried about along with some video analysis, and my game pick.
CONFIDENT LIST
1. Patriots pass defense will have a strong game.
Even if Sam Darnold is ready to go from concussion protocol, the Patriots do not have much to fear from the Panthers' passing game.
For one thing, the pass blocking on the line is borderline awful. LT Cam Erving has never been a good LT. LG Pat Elflein is not good (he and Greg Van Roten of the Jets may be the worst guards I've seen this year). Matt Paradis at center is good but has been dragged down by the unit. RG Trent Scott is awful. Taylor Moton at RT is good but slow (Matthew Judon should still have a day, again, but decent matchup this week).
The line has caused most of Darnold's problems, but not all of them. The team showed what they think of his ability to carry the team last week when they basically put him in a straightjacket — lot of runs, checkdowns and just run with the ball if you have nothing. Love WRs DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrance Marshall and Shi Smith but the passing offense is ready to go yet. Plus, this is the worst unit in the league at dropping balls. The passing game is so inconsistent.
2. Patriots will shut down TE Tommy Tremble.
It doesn't take much film viewing to know that the Panthers' QBs love going to Tremble in a big spot and the Patriots will eliminate Tremble on third down and in the red zone like they did Dallas TE Dalton Schultz. Take Tremble out, and Darnold may start to see ghosts again.
Speaking of shutting a player down ... expect the Patriots to have a good plan against Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield and I'm guessing it will include Kyle Dugger. Get ready for those, "Dugger is now elite" stories even though he was not good last week.
3. Patriots will have some success running the ball.
I really like this Panthers defense but they do have some issues with discipline and overaggressiveness against the run. I would expect the Patriots to use a lot of their trap and counter game against the Panthers to try to get some flow going one way (Mike Davis from Atlanta had a few big runs going back against the grain). I would also put a big target on the back of LB Jermaine Carter Jr. (#4). He's below average against the run and the pass, and you want to stay the hell away from Shaq Thompson because he is a big play waiting to happen if you tussle with him too many times.
WORRIED LIST
1. Panthers' defensive speed against passing game of the Patriots.
Simply put, this is the fastest defense they have seen, and probably will see this season. The Cowboys and Chargers were fast — which gave Mac Jones issues in LA — and this unit is faster. When the ball is around the tackle box, these guys swarm like a school of piranhas. They are fast, physical, strong and will dislodge the ball. I'll be very interested to see how the Patriots' offensive line, which is on the unathletic side of the spectrum, and Jones (who has quickened of late) deal with these guys buzzing around. I don't think New England scores many points without some busts.
2. Stephon Gilmore.
When Gilmore is dialed in, like he does when he has a tough assignment or it's a big game, there aren't many better in the league. He will pull, push and prod at the top of routes. His film-watching makes him well-informed. He will undercut routes. Gilmore is coming for the Patriots and it will be interesting to see which player he requests. I would see him wanting Hunter Henry on third down and in the red zone, and possibly Jakobi Meyers to take some comfort away from Jones.
Of course, the Patriots know Gilmore as well. So look for Jones to audible to get Gilmore in space, and then go to a double move. Can the Patriots protect Jones long enough? That might be the question.
3. Take care of Thompson, Burns and Reddick.
The Panthers have two edge rushers in Brian Burns and Haason Reddick who fly around the edge, so expect the Patriots to chip them as they have every edge rusher this season (their tackles have been getting A LOT of help this season).
Shaq Thompson is one of the best pound-for-pound defenders in the league at linebacker. He will attack the running game and QB with speed and ferocity. He will read the QB's eyes in zone coverage. Jones better know where he is at all times or else he will ruin a gameplan. Ask Matt Ryan.
BETUS GAME PICK
Patriots favored by 3.5. O/U is 41.
Obviously we don't yet know if Darnold and McCaffrey are playing. Both make a huge difference. If they are a go, as opposed to last week, I do not like this matchup for the Patriots. Their defense will do fine, but I think both offenses are going to have a very rough time. It's basically going to come down to which defense creates the most turnovers. It's a coinflip for me. I'm going off history and Darnold against the Patriots, but Jones could have his worst game on Sunday. The only thing I feel confident in for Sunday is the under.
Patriots 20, Panthers 17