It’s early, but it’s important to look at some of what’s happening right now with the Boston Celtics to see if it’s the beginning of a trend, or just a slow start. The following five statistics are of some concern, much like finding a mole that looks a little funny. If some of these continue unchecked and become trends, the Celtics are in trouble. But if they are fixed now, they could be no big deal.
1. Jayson Tatum: 45% shooting on 14.5 drives per game
The number of drives is good. He’s 15th in the NBA in that category and it’s up two drives per game from last season. However, the 45% shooting is down 2.8%, meaning he’s getting the exact number of points per game on drives (8) now.
The added drives are also not leading to an uptick in free throw attempts. Tatum could simply be feeling the sting of the NBA’s new officiating emphasis on fewer foul calls on certain plays this season.
It stands to reason that Tatum will figure out how to finish a little bit better. We’ve seen him do it before. The bigger concern is that he’s not getting the foul calls and it’s obviously frustrating him on the floor. The field goal percentage less represents trouble finishing at the rim and more Tatum not drawing the whistle. If he’d get a few calls, a bunch of those misses would be wiped out and the percentage would be better ... and Tatum might be a bit calmer.
“That’s something we stressed is don’t take it personal with the referees and do the right thing no matter what,” Ime Udoka said over the weekend. “Complaining about calls is not going to make it any better for you or the team in the long run.”
2. Opponent offensive rebounds: 11.7 (tied, 24th NBA)
Giving up offensive rebounds isn’t directly tied to losing. The Utah Jazz (5-1) are worse than Boston and they’re doing alright. In fact, only one team below Boston in this category has a losing record.
But it’s not doing Boston any favors, either.
“That’s definitely one that hurt us,” Udoka said, admitting that a big part of it is the switching defense that brings bigs out to the perimeter at times. “The rebounds behind it is an area that we can be hurt ... But it's an effort thing and there are some things that go behind it and we do have some schemes behind it as well.”
The Celtics have to figure out how to switch effectively and keep opponents off the glass if this is going to work. They’re already trying to push the pace and play uptempo basketball, they can’t spend 20 seconds defending and then watch the other team tip in a miss or kick it back out to restart the offense. That’s deflating and it takes away the legs needed to hit shots.
3. Opponent free throw attempts: 27.5 (last)
Giving up that many free throw attempts per game means a lot of shooting fouls. This isn’t just because teams get into the bonus against the Celtics. Some of this could be padded by the Celtics playing five overtimes so far.
This could simply be a function of being out of position as the team tries to figure out where to be in Udoka’s defensive schemes. Players foul when they’re out of position and they end up reaching or make a last ditch effort to challenge a shot. Theoretically, once they really start humming on defense, they can cut down on the fouls.
However, if this is a consistent problem, it’s just free money for the other team. Between this and the offensive rebounding, Boston is really making it hard on themselves to win games.
4. Paint touch points per game: 18 (19th)
The Celtics simply don’t generate enough paint touches, and the ones they do can end up in tough floaters.
My obsession with cutters is seen in this stat, because the Celtics are missing a ton of opportunities to get points off paint touches by simply hitting cutters when they’re there. They need to take cutting opportunities when they present themselves and make those plays.
Paint touches aren’t just about blowing by guys and getting into the lane. It’s about softening up a defense and getting into the teeth of it so it overreacts. Often, it’s with passing instead of dribbling.
5. Minutes per game: Jaylen Brown, 39.4 (1st), Jayson Tatum, 39.1 (2nd)
This is certainly impacted by the overtimes, but this is not a number the Celtics can sustain. Any injuries to one of these guys and this team is toast. Brown’s number is especially concerning since he’s coming off of COVID and clearly impacted by it.
There are players on the bench looking for opportunities. These guys are being worked really hard, really quickly, and it’s where I’m most concerned about this team. The slow start has made this worse because Udoka clearly doesn’t want the losses to pile up the way they have, so he’s riding his best players a bit too hard.
There are minutes to be saved earlier in games to make these guys available at the end. At the same time, the players themselves need to execute better and maybe they can get a couple of blowout wins under their belts to reduce their minutes.
The good stat: 96.3 FGA per game (1st)
They lead the league in field goal attempts, which, again, is boosted by the overtimes. But the Celtics are hoping to play faster and playing faster yields more shot attempts. This is a good thing.
Getting up a ton of shots (assuming they’re mostly good ones) is a great way to get through some shooting lulls without being knocked out of games. They can withstand cold shooting nights like they did in Washington and still have a chance to win the game.
If they stay at or near the top of field goal attempts, their offense will really start to look good once their percentages even out.
