A look at the top games and prospect matchups this week...
NO. 6 MICHIGAN AT NO. 8 MICHIGAN STATE, NOON on FOX
It‘s the first time these teams have faced each other while ranked in the top 10 in almost 60 years. Both are good, physical teams that are strong along the line of scrimmage. In short, MSU must win along the defensive line. MSU doesn’t have high-end talent this year, but they are effective. Same with Michigan’s offensive line.
Here’s who I am watching:
Michigan State
Kenneth Walker (RB) #9: Walker is in the Heisman conversation, 2nd in the country in rushing with almost 997 yards. Decent size (5-foot-10, 220 pounds) and some all-around skills. He does a good job making defenders miss but also breaks his share of tackles due to his running strength. Not elite speed but enough. He’s a top 5 RB which puts him in the first 100 picks.
Jayden Reed (WR) #1: He was high school teammates with Spartans QB Payton Thorne, so he gets his fair share of targets. He’s likely to be the best future pro for the Spartans and I expect him to be a solid possession receiver at the next level. At the collegiate level he’s a difference-maker when he gets the ball in his hands, and he has good agility and speed. He can win 1v1. He is one of the better returners in college football which provides value to teams like the Patriots. Late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick.
Jalen Nailor (WR) #8: This guy is the speed option for the Spartans. He’s having a good season, but he has had injury issues in the past which will be a concern for NFL GMs. Word is he’ll run fast at the combine.
Jacub Panasiuk (DE) #96: The 3-year starter is a tough player who uses his lunch pail mentality to create production. He is good against the run and effective in the pass because of his consistent effort. He may not have high-end athleticism but he’s productive (5.5 sacks, 1 FF, FR). His brother, Mike Panasiuk, played for the Carolina Panthers. Day 3 prospect.
Xavier Henderson (S) #3: One of the most experienced players on the Spartan defense. He leads the team in tackles with 60, 2nd in TFL, and 2 forced turnovers. He’s best when he is playing in the box. I think he’s repetitive to what the Patriots currently have but they will focus on the safety position. Early Day 3 prospect.
Michigan
Aidan Hutchinson (DL) #97: One of the best players in the country and someone we would love in New England. He has a really good mix of bend, strength, and athleticism. He reminds me a lot of former NFL star Ryan Kerrigan. I don’t expect him to be available for the Pats by the time they pick (assuming they don’t pick in the top 12).
Dax Hill (S) #30: He could potentially be a Patriots target and he reminds me of Devin McCourty. He lines up at both corner (primarily slot) and free safety. Good in coverage, very athletic and his versatility is attractive. He’s second on the team in tackles (35), 2 INT, & 4 PBU.
Hassan Haskins (RB) #25: Both Wolverine RB’s run hard (the other one is Blake Corum) and are productive over 600 yards rushing. Haskins will be the one that is drafted this year as a late-round candidate. He’ll offer special teams value and a team would use him the way the Patriots have used Brandon Bolden.
Andrew Stueber (RT) #71: Very good at pass protection and battles. He's quick and has good athleticism. He could improve as a run blocker and needs to be a better technician at the next level. He’s a captain, has some position versatility and has good playing experience. He has the size/athleticism the Patriots traditionally draft for in their offensive tackles. Day 3 pick.
Brad Hawkins (S) #2: Patriots will likely look for a safety in the draft. Hawkins will be an option in the later rounds. He’s having a good year, is a team captain, and has good size. It will be important how he tests and plays in the pre-draft circuit. He played his high school football at Suffield Academy in CT.
Future Stars
RG #65 Zak Zinter: The North Andover, MA native is a good one. He’s big, he’s tough, and he’s been a big factor in Michigan’s improved running game.
DE #55 David Ojabo: The junior has flashed each time Michigan is on the screen. He has 5 sacks so far this year. Good size and often shows his athleticism with a strong first step. He’s getting better as the season progresses.
NO. 10 OLE MISS AT NO. 18 AUBURN, 7 PM on ESPN
This game is important because if Alabama has a slip up then these teams will potentially win the SEC West. Plus, Ole Miss QB, Matt Corral is a top prospect and Heisman Trophy candidate playing against an Auburn defense that is getting healthy.
Here’s who I am watching:
Ole Miss
Matt Corral (QB) #2: His size isn’t ideal but that’s consistent across this draft class. He leads the team in rushing with almost 500 yards and 9 TD’s. Completing 68% of passes, 15 TD’s and 1 INT. The elimination of INT’s has been key. Historically, he has great stats but will mix in “blow up” games (think Ryan Fitzpatrick). He’s been much more consistent this year and he’s known inside the program as a great competitor. He doesn’t have a big arm and may be challenged by more difficult, longer sideline throws in the NFL. But given the QB class, I believe he’s the top prospect this year.
Jerrion Ealy (RB) #9: He plays mostly out of the backfield but think of him as similar to recent NY Giants first-rounder (WR Kadarius Toney). His stats haven’t reflected his talent but that’s because he’s been injured. Ealy is an explosive player who can make a play on anyone in the country. His size, especially at RB, will limit him at the next level. The Patriots may look at a 3rd down back in this draft, and they could use game-breaking skills, but the Patriots value consistency and pass protection for that role. That’s how we’ll evaluate Ealy for the rest of the year.
Dontario Drummond (WR) #11: His matchup with Auburn CB, Roger McCreary, is key. Ole Miss looks to spread the ball around but when they are at their best, they are moving the chains and then popping an explosive play - that’s Drummond. He’s built like a RB and good after the catch. He’s the Rebels best WR. Not quite Deebo Samuel but similar mold, I think he’s an early Day 3 pick.
Ben Brown (G) #55: He has position versatility, having played both guard and center. He has started every game since his freshman season and he’s a smart player. He does a good job when he does need to make line adjustments. The Patriots will look at an interior depth piece and Brown will be a late-round evaluation.
Sam Williams (DE) #13: He looks the part and has sack production (7.5 this year). Someone will take him in the draft because of his physical profile but I’d like to see him continue to be more consistent this year. This is a good edge class for prospects, and he’s bunched in the middle (with some reported character concerns), so it’s difficult to project. However, he’s somewhere between late Round 2 to early Round 5. Not a fit for the Patriots.
Auburn
Roger McCreary (CB) #23: We talked about McCreary at the beginning of the year, “He’s a scrappy player and does a good job mixing it up in both pass and run defense. Where he thrives, but needs to be careful, is anticipating routes or breaking off a route to go for an interception. He doesn’t have the CB length desired by some teams of their top outside corners, but he’ll have plenty of SEC tape for scouts. He’s a top 60 pick and could play himself into Day 1.” He is someone the Patriots will absolutely evaluate as they think about replacing Stephon Gilmore; but if they like him, they’ll have to snag him in Round 1. He’s having a very good season.
Zakoby McClain (LB) #9: He racks up the tackles and generally does a good job getting through the trash but pass coverage isn’t as good as you’d hope given his size (bit of a tweener for the NFL). Day 3 pick with early upside on special teams.
Owen Pappoe (LB) #0: The team captain got hurt in the Penn State game and should return this weekend. He was a top 100 player going into the season.
Smoke Monday (S) #21: He came into the season as a top 5 safety. He doesn’t have top end speed but traditionally has found a way to the football. Smoke isn’t rolling this year and he’s having an average season, which is hurting his draft stock. Day 3 pick.
Future Stars
Colby Wooden (DE) #25: Really good player that can disrupt the game. He leads the team in sacks & TFL.
Tank Bigsby (RB) #4: He has a good frame, good balance, and can be shifty at the second level but he’s also not afraid to lower the shoulder. Fun player to watch. He was the best player on the field in the Auburn game we covered earlier this year.
NO. 20 PENN STATE AT NO. 5 OHIO STATE, 7:30 PM on ABC
Ohio State has been starting to put the collection of their talent together over the last month. Penn State has really been hampered by the injury to QB Sean Clifford, losing to both Iowa & Illinois. Clifford is expected to play, albeit probably not at 100%. There will be a lot of talent on the field Saturday night, there’s over 10 players who will be drafted this year from this game (not to mention future stars).
Here’s who I am watching:
Ohio State
Nicholas Petit-Frere (T) #78: Not a household name (yet) but he’s going to be a really good one. I would be happy (and so would Mac Jones) if the Patriots drafted him to be the starting LT for the next 10 years.
Chris Olave (WR) #2: Best route runner in the country. Olave is savvy and gets open. He is a smooth player and a stud in college. He’s likely a first-rounder and while I don’t know if he’ll be a WR1 at the next level, he’s a very safe pick. He leads the Buckeyes with 6 receiving TD’s.
Garrett Wilson (WR) #5: It will be a fascinating evaluation by GMs in deciding which receiver they prefer. I think Williams may be a better future pro than Olave. His ability to separate is elite and he’s a three-level threat (quick on short routes, good route runner on intermediate routes, and plenty of speed for deep routes). He needs to be careful with the drops. He’s leading the Buckeyes in catches and yards. Potential first-rounder.
Zach Harrison (DE) #9: He has all the physical tools and physical size but is not consistent. His profile would get him drafted Rounds 3-4 but he’s a boom or bust selection. At his best, the comparable is Viking Danielle Hunter.
Jeremy Ruckert (TE) #88: He doesn’t get much attention given the WR talent at Ohio State but expect him to be a solid pro (strong hands, solid routes, and good blocker). He should finish the year with 35 catches and 5-6 TDs.
Thayer Munford (G) #75: He has played over 40 career games for the Buckeyes (largely at tackle) but with Ohio State’s talent (and his future in mind) he moved to guard. He’s big, experienced, and consistent. Good pick late Day 2 or early Day 3.
Haskell Garrett (DT) #92: Calling him out because he gets a lot of publicity on the telecast and has had some big games in his career. I see him as a good college player, and he’ll probably go higher than he should in the draft. Not consistent or big enough for DT at the NFL level.
Ohio State has some elite underclassmen - including G Paris Johnson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, RB TreVeyon Henderson, DT Tyleik Williams, and QB C.J. Stroud.
Penn State
JaQuan Brisker (S) #1: He continues to make plays in coverage, and he has good instincts and trusts them. Physical safety and the leader of the Penn State defense. He’s the best “box” safety in the draft. He will be picked somewhere between 20-50.
Johan Dotson (WR) #5: He’s a really good WR that is dynamic with the football. He’s not a very big guy but he seems to have a bigger catch radius than his size would indicate. Great body control and competitiveness in contested coverage. The Nittany Lions find ways to get him the football (screens, runs, motion, punt returns, etc.). He’s a second-round pick with upside. He has almost 50 catches and 6 TD’s so far this year.
Rasheed Walker (T) #53: He is one of the top tackle prospects in the country coming into this season. He has the size and length that’s coveted for the blind side position. He hasn’t played as well as you’d want in a first or second-rounder. Definite draft pick but needs to play better (good game to do it).
Brandon Smith (LB) #12: Linebackers aren’t as valued as they were years ago, but the Patriots could use his athleticism and Brandon Smith has some serious athleticism. He’s been a little more hit or miss than I’d like in a top prospect. I’d like the Patriots to target him (or Ellis) but not as high as when the season started. Day 3.
Tariq Castro-Fields (CB) #5: He has all the physical traits for a top corner but hasn’t played to that level this year. Disappointing season and Joey Porter Jr. (son of Steeler Joey Porter) has played much better. This is where the game will be dictated (against OSU’s WR talent) and so this is his shot for redemption. He was a Day 2 pick to start the season. Going into the game he’s a clear Day 3.
Ellis Brooks (OLB) #13: He leads the team in tackles and is a good athletic player. Will need to be excellent in stacking & shedding the Buckeye lineman.
Arnold Ebiketie (DE) #17: He’s quick and explosive at times getting to the QB. He needs to do a better job diversifying moves if the athletic first move doesn’t work. However, he does lead the team in sacks and has over 25 QB pressures. Crowded defensive edge class but he’s in the mix on the 2nd tier.
Recapping Last Week’s Matchups
Oregon DE #5 Kayvon Thibodeaux vs. UCLA OT #74 Sean Rhyan
9 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2 sacks, & 1 FF. If Thibodeaux had played more than 30 snaps in September his numbers would be massive and he’d be in the discussion for the famous bronze trophy. Not just an athlete, he can hit and his run instincts have improved from last year.
Rhyan wasn’t bad in this game. Most of Thibodeaux’s plays came against others. He did have a false start. Strong in the running game and battles in the passing game. As we said last week, likely best at the guard position.
Oregon LB #1 Noah Sewell vs. UCLA TE #85 Grant Dulcich & RB #24 Zach Charbonnet
Sewell won this match-up. He had a really good day, finishing with 9 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 pass break-up. UCLA has leaned heavily on the run game this year to open up their offense but Sewell led the Ducks to hold the UCLA offense to just 2.4 YPC. Sewell does a very good job taking on blockers head-on, stacking, and shedding them. He was also effective as a blitzer - he had a number of pressures.
Charbonnet was held in check most of the day. Finished with 56 total yards across 18 touches. At times he looked slow (by NFL standards). Dulcich was more productive and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked for him consistently. He finished with 4 catches for 51 yards and almost had a TD, but the defender made an outstanding play on the ball. He was isolated to block Kayvon Thibodeaux on a pass play and got demolished. As we talked about last week, he needs to improve his blocking but that was on the coaching more than the player.
Oregon C #78 Alex Forsyth vs. UCLA DT #91 Otito Ogbonnia
Forsyth, who was expected to play, had back spasms pre-game and had to sit this one out. The Duck running backs were held in check all day. Watching the tape, I did notice Oregon Duck OL, T.J. Bass, who played well.
Otitio was effective inside and finished with 4 tackles from his nose tackle position. He’s athletic and does a good job consistently hustling beyond his gaps. On one play he had a tackle 10 yards downfield on a screen pass. He also had two pressures. Ogbonnia doesn't have elite power to walk a lineman back, something Vince Wilfork used to excel at, but Otito gets by using his athleticism to beat defenders.
Oklahoma St LB #20 Malcolm Rodriquez vs. Iowa St RB #28 Breece Hall
The edge went to Rodriquez in this match-up. He was outstanding and the biggest reason Breece Hall didn’t have any big plays all game (including a key goal line stop). He’s a smart player and made the right read on virtually every play. If you follow the ball on the telecast you’ll find Rodriquez - he finished with 13 tackles and 1 TFL. I came away very impressed by the Cowboys linebacker.
Hall had a productive day but everything was earned. He finished with 70 yards rushing (21 carries) and TD along with a pair of catches 37 yards. He’s a patient runner, has good feet and his balance has him leaning forward as he runs which helps with YAC (think Cowboys Ezekial Elliott). Breece needs to improve his pass protection, he got beat badly for a sack, and that’s important to teams like the Patriots.
Oklahoma St. G #72 Josh Sills vs. Iowa St. DE #9 Will McDonald IV
Will McDonald had a really good day and won this match-up. He was dominating at times; he uses his 6-foot-10 wingspan so effectively. He finished with 5 tackles, 2 sacks, another 2 hurries, and a pass deflected. Both his sacks were late in the 4th quarter during critical moments in the game (Patriots could use that right now). He shows really good play awareness. He doesn’t always
play on running downs but he was much better than I expected against the run. Iowa State doesn’t hide him, and he doesn’t need to be because he’s generally pretty physical. I came away impressed. He’s a Day 2 prospect with a shot to go Day 1.
Sills’ physicality shines through. He had a number of pancakes (including one on McDonald IV). He's great at run-blocking and he has pop when he delivers a hit. His challenge in the pros will be against athletic pass rushers. He gave up a sack and a really athletic player could give him problems. I kept thinking “Richie Incognito” as I was watching him. Sills is bigger but may not be the athlete that Incognito is. Definitely worth a late round pick, especially for a running offense or a new regime focused on culture change.
USC WR #15 Drake London vs. Notre Dame S #14 Kyle Hamilton, CB #5 Cam Hart
What could have been? On the broadcast they called out that ND’s plan was to have Kyle Hamilton cover London on key third downs. Unfortunately, Hamilton got hurt in the first quarter while making a tackle on Drake London. The good news for Hamilton is the knee injury isn’t serious, according to reports.
Drake London was effective against everyone and was a huge bright spot for the USC Trojans. He finished the night with 15 catches for 171 yards. USC spent a lot of time getting him the ball on screens and with space to run. Because he is so big he’s really effective after the catch. He is super physical for a WR - runs hard and rarely goes down with light contact. London uses his body well to shield defenders on short routes. Had a good double move for a 46 yd catch. Also, very good downfield blocker. I was impressed with London - he’s in contention for being the top WR off the board in April.
Cam Hart gave up 3 catches for 32 yards and 3 tackles overall. The Notre Dame defense called for the #2 corner to cover Drake London with safety help on most plays. Similar to how the Patriots have game-planned when having Darelle Revis or Gilmore. Let those guys take away the number two WR and double the stud. That said, Cam Hart wasn’t great on the day (albeit he didn’t need to be because USC kept getting the ball to London). I think he likely stays at ND for another year and gets more seasoning but is a big-name next year.
USC DE #99 Drake Jackson vs. Notre Dame DE #7 Isaiah Foskey
Slight edge to Foskey but both these edge rushers played well. Jackson had 6 tackles, 2 TFL, including 1 sack. He also had 1 hurry on QB Jack Coan. Jackson did make a key error, not pinching a running lane which resulted in a score. The film shows how good of an athlete Jackson is. On most downs he lines up as DE but has the athleticism to drop into coverage.
Foskey was also really good - finishing with 5 tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles (both recovered by USC). Isaiah is a strong player; on one of the sacks he was able to protect his outside shoulder (leverage) and move the tackle back using his inside arm. USC directed extra attention his way on many passing plays. Like Jackson, he did make an error by not closing a running gap which resulted in a TD. Worth calling out, Foskey plays special teams which will endear him to the shot callers in Foxboro. He’s a bit underrated right now but that won’t last long - he’s a really good player.
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