After watching some Chargers film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the Patriots (3-4) against 4-2 Los Angeles (favored by 4.5 on BetUS.com), three factors I'm worried about along with some video analysis, and my game pick.
CONFIDENT LIST
1. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will have big games.
I don't see any issue with the Patriots moving the ball on the ground, and then with playaction — as long as they take care of DE Joey Bosa, which they will. The Chargers are bad and small — they are still playing the same nickel base they did in 2018 when the Patriots ran over them at Gillette! — in the front seven, and the Patriots will be able to run the ball and they need both physical backs (enough of Brandon Bolden, please). Chargers are 32nd in rushing defense DVOA at FootballOutsiders.com and they have allowed at least 186 yards rushing in four of the previous five games. The Chargers are also worst in the league in allowing rushes of 4+ yards on first down, and 32nd on all first down plays.
2. Patriots will get Justin Herbert a few times.
Especially in their most recent game, a 34-6 loss to the Ravens, Herbert had issues with pre- and post-snap reads. Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale called a great game and his looks had Herbert confused at times, and all of it was very similar to what the Patriots do. Provided Devin McCourty plays in this game, the Patriots should be able to throw some tough looks at Herbert and then coverage will take over. If McCourty does not play ... well, we'll get to that.
3. Patriots should go small and fast on defense.
The Chargers' two losses came to the Cowboys and the Ravens. Both of those defenses are fast — much faster than the Patriots — and it gave Justin Herbert some issues. The Patriots should go with nickel as their base, and big dime (three safeties) in passing situations. You want the Chargers to run (they only do it 35 percent of snaps), and they are not scary in the blocking department — even when they put multiple tight ends on the field. Dare the Chargers to run, help shorten the game, rally to the ball and tackle better than you did last week against the Jets.
Other tidbits:
- Look for the wraparound score for New England if it wins the toss and defers. Chargers are 31st in the league in points allowed on the opening drive of second half.
- Chargers are not great in the low red area. They are 27th scoring TDs in goal-to-go scenarios. Also 27th in red zone scoring.
- Chargers' special teams are still terrible, and might be worse than the run defense. Patriots special teams were the reason for the blowout last year, and they might be again. Bill Belichick's annual "See, special teams matter, you idiot" game.
- Chargers are 30th in 2nd down defense. That matches perfectly with the Patriots, who don't want to get to third down on offense.
- Chargers defense is best in the league at 3rd and long. Patriots needs to stay ahead of the chains and cut the stupid penalties.
- Chargers have yet to hold a team to a FG in goal-to-go situations this year.
- The right side of the Chargers line should be targeted. Center to left tackle is very good.
- There are going to be A LOT of Patriots fans there.
WORRIED LIST
1. Justin Herbert getting in a groove late.
You might be able to fool the second-year quarterback for a while — and his receivers might be a bit inconsistent (average 2 more drops than league average per game) — but at some point, Herbert is going to catch fire. He's one of the best fourth-quarter QBs in the league — his passer rating is right around Tom Brady and Josh Allen, and Herbert's yards per attempt are much better. Like other great QBs, he seems to be at his best when it counts, and in tough positions. Chargers coach Brandon Staley goes for a lot of fourth downs (they convert 66.7 percent), even in his own end (which is why the Ravens game got away from them) so Herbert is used to it. It would be wise for the Patriots to build a lead into the fourth quarter, because Herbert is coming at some point. Look at some of the up and down against the Browns.
Also, do not relax on 3rd and long yardage. The Chargers are tied for second in 3rd and 10+ situations (38.1 percent; 19.7 league average) and third over 7 yards. The Chargers are average (16th) at 3rd and medium (4-6 yards).
2. No more coverage busts.
Even with McCourty against the lowly Jets, the Patriots still had two fairly bad coverage busts in the secondary. If McCourty can't go, lookout. The easiest way for the Patriots to lose control of this game is for them to give the Chargers a few, easy big plays. That's how they beat the Browns, who had serious issues at safety in that game. Herbert will kill you with the flick of the wrist if you give him an opening.
To that end, last year the Patriots had Jason and Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore (owning Keenan Allen), Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, JC Jackson and Myles Bryant playing at least 33 snaps in the secondary (Jonathan Jones only played 19 snaps and Jason McCourty took over). That's a lot of experience outside Dugger and Bryant. Now the Patriots will have:
Jackson
Jalen Mills
D'Angelo Ross (possibly if McCourty can't go)
Phillips
Dugger
Bryant (if McCourty can't go).
Some pieces there, but definitely a step down in experience.
3. Know where Derwin James is.
The Patriots have to continue what they did last week in terms of not turning the ball over. James, the excellent safety who missed last season due to injury, is back and they use him all over the place. While he's not a ballhawk, he's the type of player that will blow things up at any time with a big hit or jumping a route. Mac Jones should stay away from No. 33.
BETUS GAME PICK
Chargers -4.5; O/U 49
I bet this game early on Sunday night and I probably should have taken the money line. I think the Patriots are a perfect matchup for the Chargers, even if the secondary makes me queasy. Pound the run, make a few plays in the air, don't turn the ball over and don't let Herbert make any easy big plays. I think the Patriots win this game outright.
Patriots 27, Chargers 24.