Taking a look at the top prospect matchups this week in college football:
NO. 10 OREGON AT UCLA, 3:30 PM on ABC
Oregon DE #5 Kayvon Thibodeaux vs. UCLA OT #74 Sean Rhyan
Thibodeaux is an elite pass rusher. He has ideal NFL size (6-foot-5, 258 pounds) and the desired bend that is common among top NFL edge players. He’s up there with Myles Garrett, Bradley Chubb, Aldon Smith and the Bosa brothers as an NFL draft prospect. He will not get past the first 5 picks and will be in contention to be the top overall player selected. He’s been somewhat limited this year but he’s starting to hit his stride with almost a dozen QB pressures in the second half of last week’s game. The expectation is that he’ll be a Pro-Bowler.
Rhyan is a top 100 pick with some upside as he continues to play well. Some believe he will be a guard at the next level because he’s more of a power blocker that can struggle in space. This will be the ultimate test for him. He has played very well this year, no sacks allowed. While he’s not the biggest guy he gets the job done. Rhyan reminds me a little bit of former Patriot, Matt Light.
Oregon LB #1 Noah Sewell vs. UCLA TE #85 Grant Dulcich & RB #24 Zach Charbonnet
Sewell is excellent as a blitzer and good against the run. He’s leading the team in tackles, TFL, and sacks. Sewell is the younger brother of Lions top pick, Penei Sewell. Similar comp would be Buffalo Bills LB Tremaine Edwards. Expect Sewell to be a potential first-rounder in 2023.
Dulcich is a good TE prospect who leads the Bruins in receiving yards and is a red zone threat. He does a good job beating college linebackers (stopping him will be key for Oregon) and Dulcich can create yards after the catch. Willing blocker but really needs to get better and stronger to compete in the NFL. He started his career as a walk-on who has played his way into contention for the Mackey Award. He is known as a smart player and has a high GPA. Patriots should target as a Day 3 selection (although they may be hesitant based on their ongoing experience with former UCLA Bruin Devin Asiasi).
I love the way Charbonnet runs. He has good vision and when he sees the hole, he gasses through it with power. He’s difficult to tackle, he has a heavyweight stiff arm to match his physical style and size. NFL evaluators will want to see more pass-catching ability and I question his NFL speed to break long runs. He’s a serviceable NFL player but for the Patriots he’s repetitive to Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. That’s where he’ll fall in the draft, between Rounds 3 and 4.
DT #91 Otito Ogbonnia vs. C #78 Alex Forsyth
The Patriots need to draft a backup to David Andrews. While he signed a long-term deal last year, their line suffered the impact when he was out for the season in 2019. Forsyth's game is all about technique, much like Andrews. He does a good job with hand placement, recovery, and getting to the second level when on the move. Forsyth was excellent against the talented Ohio State defensive line. He’s an under-the-radar prospect that would provide good value as a Day 3 pick.
Ogbonnia is an under-the-radar prospect who is a good combination of decent size and athletic ability. The Patriots need to draft a replacement for Lawrence Guy (especially with how Davon Godchaux is playing) and Ogbonnia is a target. He’s not a stat guy and his role would be early downs because of play strength and initial burst. This is a good tape game for him because Oregon has a strong interior offensive line and runs the ball well. Late Round Target.
NO. 8 OKLAHOMA STATE AT IOWA STATE, 3:30 PM on FOX
Oklahoma St LB #20 Malcolm Rodriquez vs. Iowa St RB #28 Breece Hall
Rodriquez is a 5th year senior who is a tackling machine. He’s also the leader of the Cowboys defense that has carried the team so far this year. He’s having a great senior season and is a candidate for All-Conference DPOY. He’s not the biggest linebacker. He started in Stillwater as a lightly recruited safety, but that athleticism helps in coverage. He’s a potential late-round candidate, special teams & roster depth piece for the Patriots.
Hall started the year slow but has picked up the pace (he’s now top 10 in the country in rushing). He has good balance, decent size, and is a decisive runner. Hall needs carries to get going but he’ll punish a college defense in the second half. Although not a gamebreaker, he does have speed at the second level. Day 2 pick – late second or more likely third round.
Oklahoma St. G #72 Josh Sills vs. Iowa St. DE #9 Will McDonald IV
Sills is the best lineman for the Cowboys and will likely be First-Team All-Big-12 this year. He has over 40 career starts. He’s dominant at the point of attack, wins with toughness, and plays to the whistle. However, he’s limited as an athlete and that’s part of why he plays guard. Medicals will need to be checked out given his injury history. Good depth piece for an NFL team, think Ted Karras.
McDonald is the best (re: high-level) prospect on the Cyclone defense. He led the country in sacks last year with 10.5 and has 5.5 through 6 games this year. His length is outstanding (6-foot-10 wingspan) and shows suddenness at the snap. He'll really need to add bulk for the next level. The good news is that he does have the frame to support it. He’s going to be an “eye of the beholder” type pick. He’ll be a sub rusher and needs time to develop at the next level, but he gets home to the QB. I compare him a little bit to recent Buffalo Bills selection, Greg Rousseau.
USC AT NO. 13 NOTRE DAME, 7:30 PM on NBC
USC WR #15 Drake London vs. Notre Dame S #14 Kyle Hamilton, CB #5 Cam Hart
London is a monster at WR. The 6-foot-5, 210-pound London is a former basketball player at USC, and it shows with his body control. He’s more of a possession receiver that uses his size and competitiveness to win. London is 4th in the country in receiving yards (832). He averages almost 11 catches a game (64 total, which is 2nd nationally. His floor is someone like former Patriot Brandon Lafell and his ceiling is someone like Chicago Bear Allen Robinson. He’s a first-round pick.
I expect Notre Dame to use their best corner, Hart, on him and then support with Kyle Hamilton over the top. The 6-foot-4, 220 safety is really a remarkable blend of skills in coverage and run support. Hamilton is elite - the best safety prospect in over 10 years (since Tennessee Vol Eric Berry was picked by the Chiefs in 2010). He’s an absolute weapon for the right defensive coordinator. USC QB Kedon Slovis (potential NFL prospect who has struggled this year) needs to find Hamilton on every play. Hamilton is scheme versatile, can play inside the box, and has the speed & smarts to play a centerfield role. He’s reliable; consistently making the routine play but offers the upside of the spectacular play. He can cover team mistakes. Top-10 pick.
Hart is a bigger corner (6-foot-2, 205 pounds) who’s played much better this year and is starting to come into his own. I don’t expect him to declare early, although he would be a late-round candidate, and next year he will be much more of a household name. I call him out because he will directly match London but more importantly the Patriots need help at CB so we’re keeping an eye on everyone.
USC DE #99 Drake Jackson vs. Notre Dame DE #7 Isaiah Foskey
While these two won’t match up directly, they will play important roles for their teams and are sure-fire draft picks when they declare.
Jackson should be the first guy off the bus this weekend in South Bend. He’s 6-foot-4, 250 pounds but carries it very well which means he’ll do well in an NFL strength program. He could use improvement against the run but he’ll get drafted high due to his elite athleticism and pass rush skills. Jackson hasn’t fully translated his traits into consistency but he’s still a likely first-rounder because of his upside.
Foskey may stick around next season; this is his first year starting and more playing time would help gain consistency and overall refinement. That said, he’s in the middle of a breakout season with 5.5 sacks and 2 turnovers. He has a plus frame (big guy with room for more size) and the physical traits are there to become a really productive player in the NFL. He’s a Day 2 pick right now.
Recapping Last Week’s Matchups
Pittsburgh QB #8 Kenny Pickett vs. Virginia Tech CB #1 Jermaine Waller
Win for Kenny Pickett by default. Waller exited the game in the 2nd quarter after suffering a foot injury. He was in a walking boot in the 2nd half.
We talked last week about how there might be a concern around Pickett’s hand size (he wears a glove). This was a really windy game and the All-22 tape will be a good assessment on his arm strength. A couple of key callouts. He had a great throw against excellent coverage that will make his highlight tape. He also had a great throw on a TD pass, on a throw that was released before the wide receiver was open and with a defensive player in his face. I saw one dangerous throw and 3 drops by his WR’s. Finally, he doesn’t look to run but is not afraid to either. He will put his shoulder down (reminded me of Joe Burrow while running).
Kentucky RT #70 Darian Kinnard & LT #51 Dare Rosenthal vs. Georgia OLB #19 Adam Anderson & OLB #4 Nolan Smith
What a physical match-up this was. Slight win for the Georgia edge linebackers. Anderson had 6 tackles, including a shared sack. He also had 1 pressure on Rosenthal, getting into his chest with a strong bull rush. Nolan Smith was matched up against Rosenthal a little more and had 4 tackles, 1 TFL. He did have a fumble recovery, but it was overturned as an incompletion on replay.
Rosenthal is an agile player, good on the move. He did struggle against Georgia DT, Jalen Carter, who we referenced a couple of weeks ago. That’s less of a knock-on Rosenthal and speaks more to Carter. Keep an eye for this sophomore - he’s a mini-Richard Seymour and I say that with the utmost respect. Kinnard was a bit up and down. He really plays mean (which is to be celebrated) and mauled some guys in the running game. But he also gave up one pressure and another time he got beat for a TFL.
Kentucky RB #24 Chris Rodriquez Jr. vs. Georgia LB # 17 Nakobe Dean
Win for Nakobe Dean. The leader of the Georgia defense had 7 tackles including 1 for a loss and even had a couple of pressures. He did a great job reading screens. On one play, he broke through 3 linemen to make a TFL that would have been a touchdown if he was blocked. Love this kid’s energy and physicality. He doesn’t fit the traditional mold of an interior LB for the Patriots but he's definitely a player and they could use his athleticism.
Rodriquez always had a tall task against this Georgia defense, but he was completely shut out. He had 10 yards on 7 carries. Kentucky also tried to get him involved using the screen game, but it wasn’t effective. As we alluded to last week, he’s very effective at running hard and getting what’s blocked plus some YAC because of his physical style. However, he doesn’t have much juice or wiggle to create from scratch.
Arizona State RB #3 Rachaad White vs. Utah LB #0 Devin Lloyd
Clear winner was Devin Lloyd in this match-up. White did have 9 carries for 62 yards (6.2 YPA) and 3 catches for 25 yards. However, Lloyd was dominant in this game. He did a great job going sideline to sideline and reading plays. He finished the game with 8 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks, & PBU. He’s a top 3 LB I’ve watched closely this year.
Finally, No. 15 Coastal Carolina’s last-minute loss on Wednesday to rival Appalachian State. QB Grayson McCall was effective (65 percent completions for 291 yds and 1 TD) but didn’t play lights out. Everett native, TE Isaiah Likely, has been playing at a very high level but he was held to only 2 catches for 32 yards. Fellow Everett alum, DE Josiah Stewart, was held in check. DE Jeffrey Gunter had 4 tackles and a pressure but no game-changing plays.
WR Jaivon Heiligh had a great game, 6 catches for over 100 yards. As I said last week, his combine testing will be important, but he feels like an underrated prospect. Not the fastest guy but kept getting open and making plays. Like Patriot Jakobi Meyers.
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