Obviously, the first 35 percent of the 2021 season hasn't gone according to plan for the Patriots.
Instead of sitting at 4-2 or possibly 5-1 with their best ball ahead of them with all the new pieces, the Patriots now will have to fight the entire season for the playoff lives.
Yes, they had opportunities to win late in all four of their losses, but that shouldn't be a sign of hope — it's a telling pattern: a team that is not good enough when it counts.
FootballOutsiders.com, which had New England for 9.8 wins in their mean projections before the season, now has them at 7.8. It has the Patriots for a 30.1 percent chance to make the playoffs.
FiveThirtyEight.com has New England headed for a 7-10 season with a 21 percent chance to make the postseason.
The rest of the AFC postseason competition for the three wild-card spots:
Chargers/Chiefs (divisional loser) 62.5 percent
Bengals 53.7
Browns 52.4
Raiders 51.4
Colts 39.0
Steelers 32.4
Broncos 31.0
Patriots 30.1
FiveThirtyEight.com
Chargers/Chiefs loser 72 percent
Browns 55 percent
Raiders 54 percent
Bengals 49 percent
Colts 37 percent
Steelers 23 percent
Patriots 21 percent
Broncos 17 percent
The truth of the matter is, New England's best shot to make the playoffs may be to hang close enough to Buffalo so that a two-game sweep in the final month pulls them into a divisional tie and the sweep gives them the tiebreaker for the division title. But the Bills, as crunched by FO's numbers, have the easiest remaining schedule in the entire league (Patriots are 26th). So for the Patriots, already trailing by two games, to stay at the same place by the Dec. 6th first meeting is likely a pipe dream.
The good news for the Patriots is that everything is in front of them in the division (unlikely) but also in regards to one of three wild-card berths. Let's just say for the sake of argument that the AFC West loser, Chargers or Chiefs, are off the table due to their anticipated record (scary saying the Chargers aren't going to Charger this season too). Even if the Patriots beat them next Sunday, LA's record will likely be too good to bring the head-to-head tiebreaker into consideration (that's why that game, and the Carolina matchup aren't really all that huge).
Not so with the other two spots.
The Patriots play the Browns, Titans and Colts. If New England does see its parts continue to gel and improve on offense, and if the defense can ever get a stop when it counts in the fourth quarter, and the Patriots go on a run in the second half of the season, then you could very well see chaos for the final wild-card spots.
And in that case, you're looking for the Patriots to finish tied with the Browns and the AFC South second-place team — and for New England to have put things together to sweep them. Because the top three-team wild-card tiebreaker for teams not in the same division is:
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Say the Patriots finish 9-8. That could very well happen considering FO has the Browns at 9.2 wins, the Titans at 9.3 and the Colts at 7.8. As long as the Patriots, already ahead of Cleveland and Indy in conference record (2-1 to 2-2), make hay against AFC teams on their schedule (conference record is the second tiebreaker), they still have a decent shot.
That would mean 7-4 down the stretch. Wins over the Jets, Browns, Falcons, Bills (one), Colts, Jaguars and Dolphins gets them there with both tiebreakers. Lose any of those, then they need a win from their losses: Chargers, Panthers, Titans, Bills.
If the Patriots get their act together — and I KNOW it's a big 'if' considering what we've seen to this point — it's not out of the realm of possibility. But I make this point to lead to a more pressing point: the next six games will largely determine, for the second-straight season, if the Patriots are even contenders after Thanksgiving.
They, at the very least, have to go 3-2 over the next five games.
A look at what's at stake, the matchups and by far biggest game of the stretch:
First, for comparison's sake, New England's standings in FO's DVOA metric that compares each play to the league average based on situations.
Overall DVOA: 19th
Offensive: 23rd
Defensive: 11th
TODAY VS. NEW YORK JETS
Overall: 30th
Offensive: 32nd
Defensive: 21st
Obviously a must-win. The Patriots, since they've only beaten the Texans and Jets, are tied for the worst strength of victory (.167) in the league, and this game won't help them improve that much.
NEXT SUNDAY AT LA CHARGERS
Overall: 17th
Offensive: 11th
Defensive: 19th
Yes, Justin Herbert feels like the second coming of Dan Marino but LA is far from formidable, especially with many Patriots fans expected to be in attendance. The Chargers, based on DVOA, are not out of the Patriots' class. In fact, they're very similar.
Remember, this is not a game New England vitally needs considering LA will likely be way ahead of New England due to ease of schedule. But this would be some really nice gravy, especially considering this is an AFC game.
NOV. 7 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
Overall: 25th
Offensive: 25th
Defensive: 8th
Even more than the Chargers game, the Patriots don't need this one because it's an NFC matchup. But after a hot start, Carolina has slumped and could be ripe for the taking with their weak DVOA. Another gravy game.
NOV. 14 VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Overall: 7th
Offensive: 8th
Defensive: 13th
No question about it: this is the biggest immediate game on the Patriots' schedule. Lose this, considering the wild-card tiebreaker scenarios, and the season could be over before Turkey Day. Browns are a DVOA darling but lost two straight before barely beating the Broncos on Thursday night. The Browns have tough, physical divisional games vs. Steelers and at Cincinnati (don't sleep on the Bengals) right before the Brownies visit Gillette. That could be helpful.
NOV. 18 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Overall: 32nd
Offensive: 29th
Defensive: 30th
Interconference, but a must-win on the road. Have to have it.
At this point, with six games remaining, we will know everything we need to about the Patriots and the other AFC playoff contenders.
If the Patriots are 3-2 with losses to the Chargers and the Panthers, they will be 5-6 and everything should still be in front of them. They, hopefully, will know which of the Titans/Colts they have to beat for a tiebreaker. They will know if they still have a chance for the division with the Bills games still ahead.
Beat either or both the Chargers and Panthers, and New England should definitely be right in the AFC wild-card picture heading into the final third of the season.
9-8 is the absolute baseline to be in the mix. 10-7 should get them a spot.
Of course, that means the Patriots have to start playing and winning right now. That, in itself, is a big projection.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. There is no magic elixir for what ails the Patriots, other than Bill Belichick taking over the defense completely. The players have to simply execute at a higher level. Could the Patriots benefit from Mac Jones and the passing offense opening things up a bit more and winning games on that side instead of relying on a wheezing defense? Yes. But that can't just happen with the snap of a finger. You need an offensive line that blocks better for the run and the pass. You need Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to look dynamic for the second straight week. You need the defense to get off the field once in a while, and maybe generate a turnover or two. In short, the Patriots — all of them — need to play collectively better and make more plays. And that goes for Jones and Co. as well.
2. GillyLock Watch: Everyone will be keeping an eye on Stephon Gilmore's status in Carolina to grade Belichick's decision to trade him. While Gilmore began to practice this week, the Panthers decided not to activate him for Sunday's at the Giants — so a Memorial Tommy Point for Belichick this week. Of course, Jonathan Jones being placed on IR on Saturday (expect Myles Bryant to take his slot spot) — meaning he'll miss the next three weeks at a minimum — could negate that all together since trading Gilmore made the Patriots' cornerback position razor-thin. Of course, Gilmore might have just talked the Panthers into waiting a week or two with ... the Patriots visiting Charlotte on Nov. 7. Get your popcorn.
3. Patriots elevated DL Daniel Ekuale (Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise are all questionable) and C/G James Ferentz (Shaq Mason still iffy) from the practice squad. Give me Barmore, Lawrence Guy and Ekuale and I bet that group does better than with Wise and Godchaux against the run. Oh, and #FreeJoshUche
4. In case you missed it, former Patriots TE Martellus Bennett absolutely savaged Jimmy Garoppolo for basically punking out with a playable injury in 2017:
Martellus Bennett goodness GRACIOUS lmao pic.twitter.com/TlzkGV8Avr
— DJ Bean (@DJ_Bean) October 22, 2021
Of course, Bennett should know a thing or two about faking an injury that suddenly healed when he went from Green Bay to New England.
That being said, Belichick and the Patriots coaches still loved (and love) Garoppolo and wanted him back this offseason. Reminds me of an answer I got from a Patriots source when I asked them, "Is Garoppolo tough?"
"Not as much as you would like," was the response.
5. @BetUS_Official Patriots game pick:
Line: Patriots -7.5, o/u 42.5
Considering we have yet to see the Patriots play well in all three phases at the same time, that is way too big a number for me. Of course, they'll put it all together this week and win 42-10.
Patriots 27, Jets 23.