After watching some Cowboys film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the Patriots against 4-1 Dallas (favored by 4 on BetUS.com, three factors I'm worried about along with some video analysis, and my game pick.
CONFIDENT LIST
1. The Patriots scheming someone open against LB Leighton Vander Esch.
Dallas might be fast on defense (a lot more on that on the worry list), but its normal middle linebacker is not. Vander Esch is big and lumbering. Watch to see if the Patriots can use motion and checks (this is something the Patriots can do with Mac Jones that they wouldn't be able to with Cam Newton) to get a back or tight end schemed up against Vander Esch.
The thing with man coverage is, everyone has to play it. The Patriots have had years in the past where they couldn't play their preferred man coverage because their linebackers were too slow and they didn't want to get exploited. Well, Dallas is going to play man, so go after Vander Esch.
My dream: a J.J. Taylor wheel route, but doubt he'll be active.
2. Trevon Diggs will give up a big play, but he also might get a pick.
Diggs leads the league with six interceptions, he has ball skills similar to his brother, Stefon, and he's quick. But he's also a very big risk-taker and will give up some big plays. He's not quite boom or bust, but it's pretty close.
If the Patriots win this game, it's because either Nelson Agholor (my bet) or Kendrick Bourne have huge games, partly due to a Diggs big play or two.
3. Matthew Judon vs. RT Terence Steele.
Steele, an undrafted free agent in 2020, has been one of the surprises this season for the Cowboys. He's played very well this season, and was terrific last week against the Giants. He's especially dominating in the run game. He's a bit like a Little Trent Brown in that he's 6-6 and 310 pounds. Like I said, little compared to Brown.
If he has a weakness, it's in the pass rush. He's a little slow of foot and his handwork is a little sloppy. This is the perfect opportunity for a player like Judon, who has been terrific to this point, to dominate this game and make Prescott's life and evening a living hell.
WORRY LIST
1. Dallas' team speed
In many ways, these Cowboys are the Bizarro Patriots.
The Patriots have a limited pocket QB, the Cowboys have Dak Prescott.
The Patriots can't figure out which back isn't going to fumble, the Cowboys have two stud running backs (Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard).
The Patriots have an underachieving offensive line, the Cowboys are overachieving.
The Patriots have a lot at TE, not much at WR. Dallas has little at TE, and weapons galore at WR.
The Patriots traded their No. 1 corner (Stephon Gilmore). The Cowboys' No. 1 corner (Trevon Diggs) leads the league in INT.
The Patriots have become old and slow on defense outside of Matthew Judon. The Cowboys have speed all over the place, especially with Micah Parsons.
The last area is the biggest. Dallas is fast on offense, and it might be faster on defense. This matchup has the potential to make the Patriots look really deficient in those areas.
But does smarts, experience and brawn still matter? We might get our answer on Sunday.
2. This isn't your old brother's Dan Quinn defense.
For years, Quinn was known for the defense he coordinated for Pete Carroll's Seahawks — the Seattle Cover 3. He brought it with him to the Falcons. It's a very simple scheme, but the Patriots and Tom Brady exploited the flaws in it better than anyone, and you have to have really good players to run it. Think the Legion of Boom.
But now, with the Cowboys, Quinn has completely changed what he runs. It appears that variations of Cover 1 (one deep safety, four in man coverage) is the predominant scheme, and they probably run more Cover 4 (quarters coverage) than Cover 3. They also will walk a ton of guys around the line of scrimmage, then drop some. They even use a 1-Rat (Cover 1 with a rat or joker safety doubling a selected receiver or tight end; this is a main third down coverage for New England).
3. Dallas' first down offense.
It's simply the best in the NFL, by far. The Cowboys gain 4+ yards on first down 63.3 percent of the time, and the league average is 51.1 (the Patriots are at 50 percent, by the way). And everything sprouts off that. Because Dallas is so good on first down, it makes third downs easier — they are second in the league there at 51.6 percent (40.6 average).
What a headache.
Here's the thing that makes this really tough, it's not like Dallas just runs the ball on first down and you can shut that down. The Cowboys actually lead the league on first down throws that gain at least 4 yards at 70 percent of the time. League average is 55.2.
Here's where I really worry: if Belichick starts Deatrich Wise again at left end in the 3-4. Dallas RG Zack Martin is back to being one of the best in the league, and RT Terence Steele isn't great in pass protection, but he is a dominating downhill run blocker. There's no way Wise can hold the point of attack against those two.
If the Patriots can find a way to give Dallas problems on first down, that would help a lot, especially in the red zone. The Cowboys are only 28th in the league in redzone third-down conversions. That's where the Patriots are usually at their best on defense, and were against Brady and Tampa.
BETUS.COM (CODE BSJ) GAME PICK
Dallas -4/50.5 o/u
I think Belichick has a huge advantage over Mike McCarthy, but the coordinators are pretty close now that Quinn changed the way he operates. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has done a great job this year, and you'll see something cool and new in this game. (By the way, be still my heart with this Lombardi Era Packers sweep from last week ... “Seal here, seal here—and he runs in the alley. ...”) Quinn vs. Belichick is a lot closer than it used to be.
I think the Patriots defense will limit this Dallas offense a bit, between 27 and 30 points. I'm just not sure if the Patriots are ready to get there yet. This isn't the Texans.
Cowboys 27, Patriots 20