ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- As the Red Sox prepare for their American League Division Series against the A.L. East champion Tampa Bay Rays, we spoke with a veteran scout for his thoughts on the Rays -- their strengths and weaknesses -- and what the Sox have to do to beat them in this best-of-five series.
Here are his takeaways and his advice to the Red Sox:
1. Work the young starters.
"The Red Sox need to run the (Rays) starters' pitch counts up quick. They're inexperienced in this arena. The Red Sox hitters need to exploit that -- make them work for every strike they throw and just remain patient. Swing at strikes. The thing I like about Tampa Bay is they're diverse; they'll give you a bunch of different looks. The key is to be as patient as possible. And I think Boston can do that; they've proved that the other night (against the Yankees). I think you can get to them early personally. They've been impressive in the looks I've had of them. (Game 3 starter Drew) Rasmussen has been powerful and very much in control and he looks like he's got the most polish, most experience, but it's a young rotation. Show patience and make them throw strikes. If they're throwing quality strikes, it will be tough to beat any of them, honestly. I don't think any of them have thrown games that are going to be close to this magnitude, so it's hard to quantify. But it's going to come down to how well those kids keep themselves under control, with the adrenaline and all of that. (Game 1 starter Shane) McClannahan is a guy Boston can be patient with. He has his innings where he loses the strike zone and goes to his breaking stuff too quickly. I don't think he's aggressive enough with his fastball. He's one where I could see it getting away from him early in the game -- easier than a couple of the other guys. And (Shane) Baz too, with his inexperience (three games).
2. Beware of the running game.
"Back in July, Tampa Bay was running randomly, really aggressively, and playing that old-style (1980s) Cardinals type of game, but I haven't seen it since. I think they're going to break that out, personally. I would be shocked if they don't. I could see them attack the Red Sox with their running game. They didn't do it much in September, but they haven't had to, honestly. They'll put guys in motion that you wouldn't expect -- all of them. They'll steal and do some things creatively on the bases. And I think they can especially run on (Kevin) Plawecki (who's thrown out just three of 40 baserunners attempting to steal).''
3. Expect a balanced approach from the lineup.
"They don't have a guy in the order you really have to focus on, They've got the two guys with 30-plus home runs (Brandon Lowe and Nelson Cruz). If you throw Lowe a first-pitch fastball from the belt up, forget it. But they have a top-to-bottom approach with their lineup, all focused on the same thing - getting on base. They're a very unselfish team. They'll take their walks, they try to go the other way, beat shifts. They've got a couple of guys who will even bunt. But they score runs in a variety of ways. I think it's going to be up to Kevin (Cash) to sense how they match up early in the game to determine which offensive approach they're going to take. Is he going to turn guys loose at the plate?
4. The Rays have some defensive weaknesses.
"You can exploit some areas in the field. Second base (with Lowe) and first base (mostly handled by Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz) has been a work in progress. And you can run on their catchers. They're sitting on that one knee and it hasn't been pretty at times, believe me.
5. Play fundamentally sound.
"The Rays won't beat themselves and you can't make your own mistakes because they'll pounce. Even over the course of the season, (the Rays) are out there working on fundamentals -- every day. When do you see teams working on PFP (pitcher's fielding practice) during the summer? And I've seen (Kevin) Kiermaier out there, 10 o'clock Sunday morning, taking line drives, live, off a bat. They've got a coach hitting line drives from a flip drill, giving you everything possible -- line drive, fly ball, hard ground ball -- for their fielders to work on. They do those kinds of things every single day.''
6. Andrew Kittredge key to back end of bullpen.
"He's going to be the guy they go to (in big spots). That's my strong guess. They want to use J.T. Chargois, too, but the thing with him, both he and Kittredge are basically sinkerball guys and I don't think you'll see them come in back-to-back because the look is too similar. I think Kittredge is going to be the guy who's going to come in and shut it down. His confidence is right up where it needs to be, but he's got to work from the belt and below. He's not a guy who elevates a whole lot, but he's got a power sinker that creates a lot of misery and he's got a wipeout slider. It will be interesting to see how he controls his emotions. That will be a factor for me.''
7. Attack the Rays lineup.
"They're vulnerable to the finesse guys, the guys who mix speeds. I think if you pitch them backwards (throwing breaking pitches on fastball counts and vice versa), you can be successful. Chris Sale's slider could give them fits, and his changeup, too. The problem the Rays have had all year is facing lefthanded pitchers and guys who can mix speeds on fastball counts, because they are a patient hitting team. They'll attack early in the count with certain guys, but for the most part, they're looking for their pitch and they're very disciplined about it. I think the Sox will have that in the back of their minds -- use more off-speed than they traditionally would, because Tampa Bay is vulnerable there.
8. Don't let them get ahead.
"When the Rays get an early lead, they're really tough, for whatever reason. They hold it together and it's their comfort level. But if the Red Sox can keep games close in the early innings, I think you have a better-than-average chance of taking a game or two out of (Tropicana Field).''
9. Sox defense has to be up to the task.
"That's a tricky turf at the Trop -- you never know what way the ball's going to spin or bounce. And how well prepared defensively they are, I'd have some concerns, but not many, The Boston infield, Tampa will look to exploit that somehow. They may try bunting this series, to some extent. Tampa can play some small ball and scratch out some runs. You've got some guys they can exploit -- Rafael Devers is going to have to play his ass off defensively and have a good series.''
