Bill Belichick faced two crucial fourth-down decisions in Sunday night's 19-17 loss to the Buccaneers and, much like his team so far this season, the head coach was half good.
Belichick was, mostly, right before halftime to punt the ball away to Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Belichick, however, made the wrong decision at the end of the game to kick the 56-yard field goal with Nick Folk — and for multiple reasons.
And, by the way, I don't use any win probability charts because they don't take many factors into account. Quite frankly, they're stupid. You don't need some formula to gauge risk/reward when you're dealing with human beings playing a team sport.
A look at both situations:
SECOND QUARTER
4-2-TB 44 (2:00) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TB 44 - No Play.
After two negative plays (minus-1 run by Damien Harris, and a 6-yard sack of Mac Jones), the Patriots did well on 3rd and 17 to gain 15 yards on a Jakobi Meyers throw back to Brandon Bolden.
That left the Patriots facing 4th and 2 at the Tampa 44 after the two-minute warning. The Patriots had all three timeouts left. The Bucs had two. The Patriots were leading 7-3.
Underlying factor: Bucs will receive the ball to start the second half.
The reason to go for it: It's 2 yards, you're in Bucs territory and by punting you're handing Tom Brady three points. If the Patriots can convert, they need about 15 yards to grab at least a seven-point lead at halftime and possibly run out the clock.
The reason to punt the ball: To protect against the Bucs possibly scoring 14 points with the halftime wraparound and ruining the 30 minutes of good football the Patriots had played to that point.
Bottom line: Basically, if you go for it, you're at reasonable risk of allowing 14 points before your offense can touch the ball again. The Patriots would be losing by two scores, 17-7, in that worst-case scenario.
If you punt the ball, at worst you're allowing 10 points and trailing 13-7 and are within a score.
It's a four-point play. The way this game was going, those four points were going to be huge.
Aftermath: Belichick correctly gauged how the game was going to play out, being a one-score game, so that justifies the decision.
What we didn't like: You couldn't come up with something better than running receivers on the field before the 2-minute warning, and then doing the offense/punt team switch after it? It's the freaking Buccaneers on the other side. Not exactly the most disciplined group. No dummy snap counts or tricky motion to get the Bucs to jump? No fake punt on special teams. The Patriots, with all that time and resources they put into special teams, couldn't come up with something better than that (and later?) They had all three timeouts left. Try to run something, and in the worst-case scenario, call timeout and then punt.
The Patriots just ... punted.
VERDICT: Good decision. The Patriots yielded the 3 points, and held the Bucs to start the second half. That was the best outcome they reasonably could have hoped for. Going for it, with the offensive unit that can't go three plays without blowing something, did not bring enough reward for the risk.
FOURTH QUARTER
4-3-TB 37 (:59) N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-J.Bailey.
The Patriots had gone 38 yards in five plays before Mac Jones' third-down pass to Meyers was batted down at the line by Lavonte David, setting up 4th and 3 at the Tampa 37 with :59 seconds left.
At this point, the Patriots have one timeout left, and the Bucs have two.
Underlying factor: Even if you make the field goal to take the lead, Brady is going to do what he had done to so many other teams over the years — come right back and win it. It's what he does, and it would be only fitting for him to do it against Belichick and the Patriots.
Reasons to go for it
1. Your team had played its ass off to that point to be in a position to win the game. Reward that. Tell them that you believe in them, and that they can finish the game off right here and now.
2. Nick Folk hadn't made a kick of this distance in a game since 2010. The longest field goal he attempted as a Patriot was 51 yards (twice), and Belichick has allowed him to attempt kicks over 50 just four previous times. His long this season was 49, and none of his makes in setting the franchise record of 36 consecutive made field goals was of 50 yards or more. Plus, he's 36, it had started pouring rain, and he's been dealing with an injury on and off since training camp. And who cares what he kicked in pre-game, the conditions were completely different and were deteriorating rapidly.
3. Tom Freaking Brady is on the other sideline. Even if you make the kick, Brady is still going to beat you and twist the dagger even more. You think the defense was playing well? Brady had gotten points on his three previous possessions, and the Patriots' defense had already been on the field for 70-plus plays and more than 32 minutes. You know who kicks a field goal with a minute left and thinks it's the right thing to do against Brady at Gillette? Jason Garrett, Norv Turner and Mike McCarthy, among others.
The reason to kick the field goal
No, it has nothing do with Mac Jones and keeping him from failing in a big spot. Seriously? You're probably the same people who thought Belichick would never name Jones the starter for this season specifically because of this game. BELICHICK DIDN'T THINK THAT WAY.
The decision to kick the field goal was 100 percent about Belichick not trusting his entire offensive operation — protection, QB, receivers running routes, etc. — to properly execute a play in a big spot. With all the pass pro issues, penalties, ball security issues, Belichick probably had more faith in his precious special teams, and I don't blame him for feeling that way.
Aftermath: Folk had the leg but hit the left upright.
What we didn't like: Again, with a timeout in the pocket, the Patriots couldn't run up and hard count to try to get the first down? Any other year, the Patriots get the other team to jump, the Patriots celebrate and run out the clock. Yes, I'm sure Brady schooled them on that, but the Bucs are not a smart team.
VERDICT: Poor decision.
To all the Belichick truthers out there, even if you make the kick, Brady is winning the game. So what's the upshot of kicking an absurdly long field goal with a kicker who last made one from that distance when the Patriots had only three Super Bowl titles? There is none. Evidently, Belichick thought Brady was turning into Blake Bortles.