PLYMOUTH – Everything seems to be falling into place for Brandon Carlo these days.
The 24-year-old defenseman — a key cog on Boston's blue line for the past five seasons — now enters a new campaign with some fiscal security, having inked a six-year, $24.6 million contract extension back in July.
With the final four years of his deal anchored by modified no-trade clauses, Carlo can now take a deep breath and continue to set his roots in the only town he’s played for in his pro career.
That’s great news for the now growing Carlo clan, as Brandon and his fiancé, Mayson Corbett, welcomed their first child, Wren, into the world back on September 2.
It’s been a whirlwind of a summer for Carlo, who had no complaints about the frantic schedule that he’s been on as of late when catching up with media at the Boston Bruins Foundation’s annual golf tournament at Pinehills Golf Club on Wednesday.
“Sleep hasn't been going great. But other than that, it's been fantastic,” Carlo said. “What an amazing blessing it is to be a first-time dad. And, man, I can't even explain how full my heart is.
“And I feel like that's a great thing going into the season — just kind of gives you a different perspective on gratitude and the situation of life. So I think it'll really ground me in a lot of ways and help me in life and as a hockey player.”
Off the ice, everything seems to be coming up roses for Carlo — even with the lack of a defined sleep schedule.
But on the ice, things aren’t quite set in stone for the stay-at-home blueliner, at least when it comes to carving out a regular partner for Carlo on Boston’s second pairing.
For as much as the top question mark regarding personnel on Boston’s blue line this season will likely revolve around who gets to log regular reps with Charlie McAvoy on Boston’s top pair — the domino effect of who Bruce Cassidy opts for on that left-side spot will reverberate throughout the rest of the lineup, especially for a guy in Carlo who will likely have a puck-moving ace alongside him in either Mike Reilly or Matt Grzelcyk.
Carlo’s size and knack for negating scoring chances would make him as an intriguing candidate to pair with a guy like Derek Forbort as part of a hefty shutdown pairing — but Carlo has noted time and time again that his preference is to team up with a D with a different skillset, believing that his shifts spent alongside a player like Torey Krug achieves the best of both worlds when it comes to their talents as a unit.
So if Forbort does indeed stick to the top pair with McAvoy, who is the best fit next to Carlo between Grzelcyk or Reilly?
One has to think that Boston will want to give that Reilly-Carlo pairing a longer look, especially considering their reps were rather limited in 2021 due to Carlo’s string of bad luck in regards to the injury bug.
In total, the Reilly-Carlo pair only logged 58:34 of 5v5 ice time during the regular season — which ranked 17th out of B’s D pairs in terms of TOI last year. Granted, all it takes is a peek at their underlying numbers to see why Boston is probably excited to give that duo an extended look once again in 2021-22, as Boston held pretty commanding leads in ...
Shot attempts: 80-24
Shots on goal: 40-14
Scoring chance: 33-11
… during that 58:34 of ice time.
If Carlo is able to remain healthy (which frankly might be the primary concern as far as Boston’s defense goes) and continue to play his trademark stay-at-home game — and Reilly continues to build off of a breakthrough 2021 season and develop into one of the more impactful 5v5 playdrivers from the offensive blue line — Boston could indeed have a very effective tandem following McAvoy and Co. on this D corps.
And the prospect of logging more games next to Reilly sure seems to be an exciting proposition for Carlo.
"For me, I've always loved playing with the puck-moving defenseman. I feel like (Reilly’s) passing ability is amazing," Carlo said. "He sees the ice very well, I feel like we communicated very well, right from the get go. So I really love playing with Mikey, it's a great pairing. I feel like our skating ability enables us to get up the ice a little bit more. And I feel like he gives me the luxury to try and do that as well, getting up the ice.
"And I would say I'm probably the more defensive minded one on the pair. But overall, I feel like he does a good job of trying to implement me in certain things along the blue line, he'll pass me the puck D to D a couple times. And he's not afraid to share it with me. So that's fantastic. And I think that helped me grow my game.”
Still, there are a few concerns that do sprout up when looking at the sample size that Reilly-Carlo presented last season — and could open the door for perhaps Grzelcyk to earn more reps on the second pair if Cassidy does lock in a Forbort-McAvoy duo on the top group.
For as much as the shot shares and scoring chances are well in Boston’s favor during that 58:34 of ice time, it’s important to note that the Reilly-Carlo pairing were handed some outrageously favorable ice during that stretch — with 75.00% of their faceoffs at 5v5 play set in the offensive zone.
As such, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that both blueliners were on the ice when the Bruins were regularly peppering the opposing net, but despite all those O-zone reps, Boston only managed to score two 5v5 goals during that 58:34 of ice time, while relinquishing two goals down the other end of the ice.
Given that they’re both puck-moving defensemen that are perhaps a bit undersized, it’d be easy to label Reilly and Grzelcyk as being cut from the same cloth, but Boston used a Grzelcyk-Carlo pairing much differently when compared to Reilly-Carlo — especially when it comes to O-zone deployment.
Perhaps Reilly’s even-strength playmaking prowess is what prompted Cassidy to hand so many O-zone reps to him and Carlo, but a Grzelcyk-Carlo pairing was almost used more as a shutdown duo when they were rolled out together on the same shift.
During the 98:13 of 5v5 ice time that Grzelcyk-Carlo logged in 2021, that pair spent just 44.26% of their 5v5 faceoffs in the offensive zone. That ranked as the third-lowest O-zone faceoff% among B’s D pairs with at least 50 minutes of 5v5 ice time this season, freeing up other blueliners like McAvoy to earn more favorable looks down the other end of the ice.
If Boston wants to make life easier for Forbort-McAvoy and give them more O-zone looks, keeping that Grzelcyk-Carlo pairing intact on the second pairing might be the move, with Reilly slotted down to the third pair and given easier matchups as more of an offensive conduit.
Even though it’s to be expected that D pairs with O-zone faceoff percentages under 50 percent will have less-than-stellar underlying metrics such as shot share (after all, more reps spent in your own zone means that the opposition is going to land punches against you), the Grzelcyk-Carlo pair was actually pretty solid in their defense-first role, with Boston still holding the edge in …
Shot attempts: 102-76
Shots on goal: 57-41
Goals scored: 5-4
… despite the multiple of neutral-zone or D-zone starts.
Like a number of other looming lineup decisions (determining the rotation in net, for example), choosing between Reilly/Grzelcyk as a regular D partner for Carlo is a good problem to have if you're the Bruins.
Because frankly, so long as Carlo can remain healthy, you’re likely going to have a pretty effective D pairing regardless of which left-shot D you slot next to him. But how Boston wants to deploy that pairing — and how their on-ice starts can potentially make life easier for the rest of a reshuffled D corps — might be the top determinant as far as plugging in the right pieces on Boston’s blue line.