Barring some epic, once-in-a-lifetime collapse by the front-runners, the Red Sox aren't about to catch the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.
In their heart of hearts, they've probably known for this for a while. If they weren't privately convinced of that when the Rays came in to Fenway and took two-of-three, then surely the thought dawned on them last week when, in the midst of a full-blown COVID outbreak for the team, they dropped the first two games of a four-game series at Tropicana Field.
That the Red Sox were able to come back and win the final two games and gain a split of the set was admirable and all, and a nice display of resilience on their part. But really, by then, the Sox were relegated to playing for the wild card.
Two more losses this week surely hammered that point home, capped by the disastrous Labor Day exhibition in which the Sox spit up a 7-1 run lead, mostly by playing defense like a Little League squad. Another one-sided blowout followed Tuesday, pushing the Sox to the brink of at-home sweep, something they hadn't been subject to since -- gulp -- the infamous opening series swan dive against the lowly Baltimore Orioles.
That's why their thrilling 2-1 win Wednesday night was not inconsequential. Not because it made first-place any more attainable -- the Sox trail by 9 with just 20 games remaining -- but because it reminded the Sox that they're capable of winning taut, low-scoring games against the Rays, the kind that you have to win to be successful in the postseason.
And why is that an important lesson? Simple. Because of the Red Sox hang on to one of the two wild card spots in the American League -- thanks in part to the slumping Yankees, losers of five straight, the Red Sox now have the lead in the wild scramble that has five teams separated by a mere 3.5 games -- and then win the one-game playoff, they would go on to face ... drum roll please ... the Rays in the Division Series.
So it helps that in the final head-to-head meeting between the clubs until then that the Sox got a win and reminded themselves that the Rays aren't invincible after all. After the Red Sox won the first four meetings of the season, the Rays ran off 11 of the next 14.
But recency bias counts for something here, and the Sox had the last laugh -- for which they owe a former Ray a debt of immense gratitude.
Hunter Renfroe looked like he was conducting a one-man revenge tour for nine innings Wednesday. First, he fired a pea from the near Canvas Alley to cut down Manuel Margot at second in fourth inning. Then, with the Sox trailing 1-0 in the eighth, Renfroe clobbered a slider on the outer half of the plate and drove it over everything in left for a two-run homer that put the Sox ahead for the first time. And finally, with one more stake to the heart of the team that walked away from him after last season, he alertly backed up Danny Santana in center, sprinting after a ball rolling toward the warning track and unleashed a throw of better than 300 feet to third, cutting down an overly ambitious Joey Wendle at third for the final out of the night.
Talk about a One-Man Show.
"Does it feel good to go against those guys? No,'' said Renfroe. "I think it's great to have a win like that against anybody. It just happened to be against the first place team, the Rays.''
In actuality, there are no unimportant games remaining on the Red Sox' schedule. If the Sox can win, say, a minimum of a dozen of their final 20, they'll likely have one of the two wild-card spots. It doesn't matter against whom those wins come. If they're won versus Seattle and the Yankees, they'll count for more, because they, too, are in the wild card race, and each win will have the additional benefit of pushing them back further in the standings.
But the point is to win as many as they can, and, in a best-case scenario, win enough to have that wild-card game played at Fenway instead of New York, or Seattle or Toronto or Oakland. And by virtue, in part, of their win over the Rays Wednesday, the Red Sox now lead that pack, however slightly.
It's down the road where a win like Wednesday's could mean the most. If a Division Series date with Rays materializes, the Red Sox will most assuredly go in as underdogs. But they won't go in without hope or even some confidence. And that's the real value of what took place at Fenway when the two teams wrapped up their regular season series.