Is Derek Forbort the best option next to Charlie McAvoy on Bruins’ top D pair?

If underlying metrics were the lone determinant when it came to roster decisions, Bruce Cassidy wouldn’t have to fret that much over the personnel on Boston’s top defensive pairing this year. 

Granted, Charlie McAvoy is (and hopefully will be for the long haul) entrenched at the top of Boston’s depth chart on the right side — and his presence alone makes Boston’s go-to defensive unit a formidable force when it comes to shutdown ability, O-zone capabilities and transition prowess. 

But if you stick Matt Grzelcyk next to McAvoy on top of it? I mean, the numbers speak for themselves.

Despite not opening the 2021 season alongside his former collegiate teammate, Grzelcyk eventually found himself back on Boston’s top D pair due to an assortment of circumstances — be it injuries, situational adjustments on the ice …

… and the fact that Boston is more often than not pummeling opponents into submission when both McAvoy and Grzelcyk are patrolling the blue line together. 

They may not fit the mold of top D pairs of yesteryear — with the duo sacrificing size and edge for speed and skill — but it’s tough to ignore just how regularly Boston tends to tilt the ice in its favor when McAvoy and Grzelcyk are deployed as a unit.

Last season alone, the Bruins were regularly a 5v5 buzzsaw when Grzelcyk-McAvoy were on the ice together — with Boston outscoring opponents, 20-7, and holding a plus-126 shot differential during their 339:43 of 5v5 ice time.

Given those numbers that McAvoy and Grzelcyk put together — it sure seems like Boston’s top D pair might be on the few segments of the B’s roster that Cassidy won’t have to tinker with all that much in 2021-22, right? 

Well, not exactly. 

Because as dominant as Grzelcyk-McAvoy might be, the Bruins might opt for a different look on that grouping — one supplied by a big-bodied pick-up off the UFA market in Derek Forbort. 

Sure, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is a mantra we regularly toss out here when it comes to Bruins’ lineup shuffles and the benefits (and risks) that come with splitting up proven lines and dynamic D pairs. 

But even the stat geeks like yours truly have to relent at times and note that underlying metrics don’t (and shouldn’t) paint the entire picture when it comes to assessing the effectiveness of a player(s). 

Because for as dominant as Grzelcyk-McAvoy were for extended stretches last season, the sight of both blueliners getting knocked around against a heavy Islanders forecheck might be the image that sticks most with Cassidy from this past season — as opposed to the sequences in which both defensemen were regularly pantsing lesser opponents through the neutral zone and along the offensive blue line. 

And as such, it didn’t exactly come as a surprise that Cassidy expressed an interest in seeing just how effective a bigger defenseman like Forbort might be if paired alongside a 200-foot ace like McAvoy. 

"We know Grizz and Charlie can play together,” Cassidy said. “Didn't work out as well in the playoffs as we'd like. It's a lot of demands on Grizz so we brought in a guy like a Forbort that's ... a bigger defender, a different type of defender (than Grzelcyk). So we want to see how that would look with Charlie. Now whether we do that every night or not remains to be seen. That's a big ask. 

“We know Grizz can slot in there at times, so I think you'll see some toggling. We did not see Riley with Charlie. Probably won't. I think he was a good fit with Carlo and both Clifton so I think we're gonna see those guys move up and down a little bit — Forbort and Grizz with Charlie. See how it best works.”

Indeed, we know that Grzelcyk can thrive in a role further down the lineup, be it next to Brandon Carlo or Connor Clifton. 

But can Forbort hold his own in top-pairing minutes? He’s certainly had some experience in that regard. 

He sure wasn’t the headliner on the Kings’ top D unit, but Forbort was regularly conjoined at the hip with Drew Doughty during his tenure in California — logging a hefty 2,207:34 of 5v5 ice time with the Norris Trophy winner from 2017-2020. 

And even though he didn’t draw the same headlines as other UFA blueliners this past summer like Alec Martinez and Jamie Oleksiak — Forbort was a solid, shutdown option on an admittedly thin Winnipeg defense in 2021, averaging 20:45 of ice time per game and ranking fifth among all D in the league with 115 blocks. 

If Boston wants to get the best of both worlds with Forbort snuffing out scoring chances and McAvoy orchestrating them down the other end of ice, the rationale is sound for giving Forbort a shot, no doubt. 

Still, it’s no guarantee that Forbort is the missing piece when it comes to creating a top pair capable of both landing punches in the O-zone — and possessing an iron chin against the brawn that awaits in the postseason.

Even though Forbort was frequently penciled in next to Doughty during his time in L.A., the actual numbers themselves were less than stellar in that 2,207:34 — with the Kings trailing in …

Shots: 1,086-971
Goals: 78-72
Scoring chances: 910-823

… over that HEFTY sample size. 

Now, that’s not to say that all those less-than-stellar metrics are due to Forbort. After all, those Kings teams were pretty rough, while Doughty's game over the past few years has slipped a bit from the lofty reputation he still carries. 

Add in the fact that that that the Forbort-Doughty pair also had just 45.39% of their faceoffs in offensive zone over those three years, and you can see that perhaps Forbort can still function as a potential 20+ minutes guy, especially if he’s slotted in next to a perennial Norris Trophy candidate (at least he should be) in McAvoy. 

But for as much as sticking a more traditional stay-at-home option next to a player of McAvoy’s profile sure seems to make a whole bunch of sense — the jury might still be out a bit on whether or not that mix is the best way to maximize the talents of Boston’s best defenseman. 

While the production generated from Grzelcyk-McAvoy has been well-documented by this point, the numbers weren't exactly as kind when McAvoy was next to another stay-at-home option in Jeremy Lauzon to open last year. 

Even though slotting a promising youngster like Lauzon next to McAvoy seemed like an easy way to ease him into an elevated role, the numbers weren’t exactly so stellar, with Boston scoring 14 goals — and relinquishing 14 goals — over their 322:22 of 5v5 ice time together. 

Of course, Forbort should offer better value than Lauzon, and even though it’s important to note that Forbort isn’t exactly a bruiser despite his 6-foot-4 frame (think in a same vein as a Brandon Carlo), perhaps the Minnesota native can fulfill a similar role to the one he assumed in L.A. — except with a better team, more favorable O-zone deployment …

(whispers) and a better defenseman as his partner. 

Ultimately, it sure seems like we're going to see Forbort get every opportunity in camp to earn a spot next to McAvoy — with the B's hoping that their UFA pickup's strong D-zone numbers against tough competition in Winnipeg translates over to Boston as an effective complement to their franchise blueliner.

And if not? Well, Grzelcyk-McAvoy still seems like an awfully good contingency plan.