NBA training camps open in the final week of September, and between now and then, we’ll be trying to answer 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at if, and how, Jayson Tatum can jump into the MVP conversation.
A skinny kid to start his NBA career, by his fourth year, the 22-year-old was an All-Star having shown significant growth, literally and figuratively, as an NBA player. He’d spent years adding muscle to his lanky frame, and now it seemed he was on the verge of something big.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s transformation has been one of the more incredible in the NBA. The 196-pound rookie has grown to a 242-pound behemoth who is practically unstoppable. And while Jayson Tatum isn’t quite the athletic marvel Antetokounmpo is, he’s hoping to follow in similar footsteps.
Yooo Jay Smooth has not been chillin‼️‼️💪💪💪💪💪 @jaytatum0 pic.twitter.com/RXplb8L1vU
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) September 1, 2021
Some players, like LeBron James or Kevin Durant, step right into the NBA and show obvious top-shelf talent. Some, like Antetokounmpo, build to it more slowly. The 2016-17 season, Antetokounmpo’s fourth, was his first All-Star selection. The following year, he averaged 26.9 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.8 assists to leap into superstardom. The two years after that, he was MVP.
Tatum averaged 26.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in his fourth season, which was his second All-Star campaign. So by comparison, at least offensively, Tatum seems to be on the right track.
But just because Tatum is statistically tracking with what Giannis used to be, we can’t assume he’s going to become what Giannis currently is.
However, that’s what the Boston Celtics are hoping for. The 23-year-old Tatum probably wouldn’t mind accelerating the process a bit. Antetokoumpo’s first MVP came in his sixth season. Tatum is entering his fifth.
Whether Tatum can enter this conversation is one of the biggest questions of this team’s future. If Tatum’s head is scraping his NBA ceiling right now, then the Celtics are likely to need more high-end help. If he can climb another rung or two on the ladder, then maybe Brad Stevens’ approach to team-building can switch to finding more of a supporting cast.
NBA champions aren’t usually led by people outside the top five in the MVP conversation. Here’s a list of the last 10 champions, their best players, and where that player finished in the voting.
2021: Milwaukee/Antetokounmpo (4th)
2020: Los Angeles Lakers/James (2nd)
2019: Toronto/Kawhi Leonard (9th)
2018: Golden State/Durant (7th), Steph Curry (10th)
2017: Golden State/Curry (6th), Durant (9th)
2016: Cleveland/James (3rd)
2015: Golden State/Curry (1st)
2014: San Antonio/Tim Duncan, Tony Parker (T-12th)
2013: Miami/James (1st)
2012: Miami/James (1st)
Those years where the champion didn't have an MVP in the top 5 were Leonard on load management and taking advantage of two catastrophic Warriors injuries to Durant (Achilles tear) and Klay Thompson (ACL tear). Curry and Durant were 5th and 8th in the voting that season. They also split votes in 2017 and 18, to fall on the list. And then there are the 2014 Spurs, the pinnacle of modern-era ball movement and unselfishness.
So the lesson is this: Either have a top-5 MVP candidate or two guys so good that they split MVP votes. Otherwise, be the 2014 Spurs or hope the other loses two star players.
Maybe Jaylen Brown can make a big leap (more on him on another day), and we all know Stevens’ obsession with the ‘14 Spurs (maybe that’s part of why he brought in Ime Udoka, who was an assistant coach on that team), but Tatum making a jump is the road Boston’s GPS seems to be mapping out.
Tatum is really good right now. It’s hard to even guess what his career trajectory can be because he’s so young and, despite him already being in the top 15 or 20 NBA players, there are obvious things he can do better. A tighter handle to hold onto the ball better on drives and a reduction of inefficient mid-range shots alone could add points to his stats, fouls to the other teams bonus count, and create opportunities for teammates against an overreacting defense.
Scoring is the most obvious way for Tatum to enter the MVP conversation. The last 10 NBA MVPs have averaged just under 29 points per game, and so some minor improvements can get Tatum to that level. But it’s more than that. It’s about being so great that your mere presence on the floor makes everyone else better.
And this is where Tatum really needs to make his leap. We can debate tweaks to his game and increasing the raw numbers, but that just becomes mechanical; Average x, y, and z and become an MVP.
What will make him truly valuable is becoming a force of nature.
A lot of guys can score points and grab rebounds. Russell Westbrook keeps racking up triple-double seasons and no one seems to care much anymore because they feel empty. Yeah, they’re a tremendous accomplishment, but where has that gotten his teams?
The best of the best can manipulate the game; either bend it to their will so the opposition ends up doing their bidding, or be such a physical force that is simply impossible to stop.
In the short term, Tatum can certainly build up the numbers to make his case. He can become one of the league’s toughest covers and it will help keep the Celtics fighting for deep playoff runs.
But can he truly become an MVP? Can he put together seasons where opposing defenses just shrug and his teammates see bumps in their own games just by swimming in his wake? Can he take a franchise and throw it on his increasingly broad shoulders?
If he’s just a stats machine, Boston will need more help. If he’s an MVP, then Boston will need more room in the rafters.
The 20 questions series: