We have two games worth of data to go along with 12 real practices, so things are starting to come into better focus. But we have to admit, the Eagles' decision with their personnel on Thursday night was a blown opportunity to see many players in real combat against good players. With Joe Judge and the Giants coming to town this week, we are buoyed that both Judge and Bill Belichick are going to work together to give themselves good looks at several players.
First up, the Patriots and every NFL team have to go from 85 players to 80 by 4 p.m. on Tuesday. Early cuts often come down to numbers at certain positions to get through a game considering injuries, but this is the time Belichick would let go of respected veterans to give them a chance to catch on before a flood of players are available. Our guess (we were 1 for 5 last week), if players like N'Keal Harry aren't moved to IR: WR Devin Ross, OL RJ Prince, DT Bill Murray, OL Marcus Martin and CB Dee Virgin.
On with the new roster projection, before we get into our discussion that will center around receivers and tight ends:
The big changes:
- Going back down to 4 receivers, with Kristian Wilkerson being released and N'Keal Harry to IR
- Keeping 5 tight ends and fullbacks when the norm is 4
- No changes on defense
RECEIVER
I have no inside information on Harry's physical status, so don't read too much into me placing him on IR. Reports have him out anywhere two weeks to a month. Those estimates are often on the short side in my experience. I have a hard time seeing the Patriots carrying him through the 53-man cutdown, but stranger things have happened. I don't think Harry has earned a spot on this team, so why would they lose out on a player they want on the 53 to possibly bring back an underwhelming player in the middle of the season?
In any event, a trade or release is also possible. I just don't see Harry on this roster this season.
That leads into ... do you keep a fifth receiver?
I do not, simply because I think Kristian Wilkerson won't be claimed by anyone. Wilkerson has really fallen off in the past week with multiple drops. I don't see another receiver on this team worthy of a roster spot. If a trade should develop later — Chris Gasper's favorite trade: Sony Michel for Cardinals WR Christian Kirk; I dig it — great. But at full strength, the Patriots are only going to play three receivers max. So a fifth is kind of a waste unless there's serious upside and term.
Until that time ...
TIGHT ENDS
... I'm putting more resources into tight end after this week in Philly.
Simply put, the Patriots can't rely on Devin Asiasi for anything should he be forced into an emergency situation. He had a chance to show out this week in Philly as the only healthy tight end, and he didn't do anything.
For this reason, I'm keeping Matt LaCosse. The Patriots can't feel confident about Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith lasting the season. They are going to need a replacement.
Who's going to do that ...
Not Lt. Asiasi, at least not anytime soon.
The Patriots are going to feature a two TE system. They need a reliable backup in case of the worst. The only person I trust is LaCosse.
Other roster thoughts...
- If he wasn't the person he is and the leader he is, I would still let go of James White. If the coaches think JJ Taylor can do the job, they should move on. The Patriots got into this personnel mess by hanging onto to too much experience and leadership on defense, and not developing young talent. Don't make the mistake on offense. If it's close, the Patriots need to chose youth and rely on their coaching to make up the difference.
- I'm only trading Sony Michel if I get a lot for him. He's been too good this camp, and I am not going to trust a rookie RB, even one as promising as Rhamondre Stevenson, to be the every-down back should Damien Harris go down.
- With Yodny Cajuste's development, I feel really good about the offensive line. Justin Herron is the top tackle backup, he's earned that, but Cajuste is coming on.
- I have a feeling the Patriots are going to keep DT Montravius Adams — Christian Barmore is really the only interior rusher if you don't count Deatrich Wise in sub — but I couldn't find another roster spot. Maybe Michael Jackson is released? Myles Bryant and Jalen Mills give cover at safety and corner.
NICKEL PACKAGE WITH SOME PATRIOTS ASSISTANTS
We were able to speak to the assistants today, so here are some good talking points:
1. Josh McDaniels says Cam Newton is the starter right now, but he's just echoing Bill Belichick.
“I know this is going to sound silly, but I haven’t really worried about (who is going to be the opening day starter)," McDaniels said. "I think that decision from Bill will be made when the time is right to make it. Cam certainly is the starter now, and he has done a good job. He has gone in there, he played well the other night. He’s practiced well. But, I know those guys are really competing hard and we’re giving them an opportunity to compete and play a lot of football.
“My focus really is on our offense improving and specific to your question, that position in general, I have said it before, like that position to me is obviously extremely valuable to our team. We need to be able to play consistently well. We need to communicate well. We need to make good decisions. We need to throw the ball accurately. We need to protect the football and not give it away. To me, I look at those guys in the same light in regards to what we’re trying to accomplish. Ultimately, when any decision is made based on who is going to play more or less on our team, those decisions will be made when the time is right and we’re going to go forward and try and play the best we can.
“I am very pleased with the effort that we’re putting in at the quarterback position, the improvements we’re making and the way that we’re attempting to run the offense. Everything isn’t perfect. We still have a long way to go and things we can work on and improve and make better, but I think the desire to do it, the way we want to do it to the standard that we’re trying to hold them to I think is right where we want it to be.”
2. Patriots are "throwing everything" they can at Mac Jones.
"Mac’s improving," McDaniels said. "He’s improving in a lot of areas weekly. One of the things we’ve tried to do is get a two-minute situation at the end of the second quarter, and unfortunately, just based on the way the game kind of fell the last couple of weeks, we didn’t get to do that. So we started both third quarters, I believe – Washington and Philly – trying to kind of; let’s call it mimic or simulate a two-minute drive so that we could get a little bit of work in there in that situation. I think he’s improving in his communication and improving in his tempo. The offense has been able to get into a decent rhythm. There are still little things we have to fix and tweak as we move forward, but you know, generally speaking there were very few, if any, pre-snap errors. Which is really the goal for a quarterback in our system, is ‘let’s get out there and set the table right and do it as quickly as we can, so that we give the other 10 guys an opportunity to play fast and be aggressive.’ I think he’s improving at that skill weekly.
"We’re throwing everything we can at him right now, putting him in those situations. I was glad those came up. First time throwing from your end zone in the NFL, and have to stand in there and continue to read the coverage out and try to distribute the ball properly.”
3. Ivan Fears said RB Rahmondre Stevenson failed his conditioning test, but has made progress.
"Yes, he’s definitely taken to the coaching points, and he’s improved his status tremendously from where he was," Fears said. "If you remember, he couldn’t even get started on the right day. He couldn’t quite finish the conditioning test. So he started out definitely in the tank, and he has made great improvement, and has climbed out of there. So he’s definitely listened, and tried to do the right thing.
“Hard to say what they did at his school, but it sure seemed like he wasn’t ready for the NFL at that time when he got in here. So, I don’t know what they did there, but he needed to do a lot more work when we got him here. That’s what we’ve done with him, tried to get him right. The good news is the kid has taken it to heart, and worked his butt off.”
4. DeMarcus Covington continues to rave about Christian Barmore.
"A lot of growth," Covington said. "... He's done a really good job of embracing his role as a rookie defensive lineman coming into our defense and our team. So he's definitely got some room for improvement but he's been doing good so far."
5. Patriots still evaluating JJ Taylor.
"I think that’s the thing that J.J.’s got to answer for us," Fears said about Taylor being a two-way back like Rex Burkhead. "That’s what he’s trying to give us. He’s trying to give us that look, whether he can do it or not. And, I wouldn’t say he’s miles away. I definitely wouldn’t say that. I would say he’s closer than further away. He’s done a hell of a job trying to close that gap. He’s worked his butt off. That’s first preseason game, he got into some situations which he needed to show us he could handle.
"The big thing for J.J. in my opinion, J.J.’s got to do it consistently, and that also means in practice. Practice is very important to us and what they do in practice is important. And he’s got to develop consistency straight through, and I think he can . . . the kid is talented. He’s definitely talented, but young. He’s got to be consistent at what he’s doing. He really does.”