We have one game of data to go along with 10 real practices, so things are starting to clear up a little bit. There will be much more data after the trip to Philly and the visit by the Giants but for now, here's what we are thinking, and some of the changes that have gone on at quarterback, running back, receiver, the offensive line and up front on defense.
First up, the Patriots and every NFL team have to go from 90 players to 85 by 4 p.m. Early cuts often come down to numbers at certain positions to get through a game considering injuries. Our guess: WR Devin Ross, TE Troy Fumagalli, OL RJ Prince, DT Bill Murray, a transactional move with Jarrett Stidham's PUP status.
On with the new roster projection, before we get into our discussion:
CHANGES
Brian Hoyer released
I'm in favor of having Hoyer on the roster forever, especially in terms of Mac Jones' development. And that may indeed happen. But without any major injuries — and those are sure to change things in the next month — we're looking for roster spots.
This is the way I looked at it. If Cam Newton is the opening-day starter, Jones is the backup. The Patriots have gone with less there in previous years.
If Jones is the starter and Bill Belichick decides, after consultation with Newton, that it's better for Newton to be released, then Hoyer is the backup.
Either way, the Patriots only need two quarterbacks on the roster. We'll see with Stidham down the road.
James White on the roster
The beneficiary of the QB roster spot? James White. I'm certainly not thrilled with taking six running backs, but tolerated since Brandon Bolden and JJ Taylor have special teams value. I'm just not sold on Taylor yet. I figured he would have flashed more at this point. He was good the other night, but he hasn't leapt off the screen. White had a good week this week in practice. Let's see if he continues this little upswing. I doubt Taylor would make it to the practice squad, so you have to keep both.
N'Keal Harry back on the trading block
Ok, I've seen enough. Harry's good practices were fool's gold. He can't get open in games, or at least he's not a good fit for this offense. Time to get whatever you can and move on.
Keeping Kristian Wilkerson instead. He's no great prospect, but least he can get open a little bit. Have a feeling they are eyeing him as a future replacement for Matthew Slater. For now, he also helps at receiver.
Sixth-round pick Will Sherman released
Like him in his stance and how he fills out a uniform, but Sherman has not been good to this point and needs a lot of work. He should have no issues getting to the practice squad, and continue his development. The Patriots struck gold with Mike Onwenu in the same spot last year. Let's call it even now.
Cajuste or Cunningham for last OT spot?
Yodny Cajuste got the first call at RT the other night in a bit of a surprise. He's overdue for playing time, so I think the Patriots wanted to get a good look — they know what they have in Korey Cunningham.
I think one of those players is traded, and it comes down to who has the most trade value. There's more film on Cunningham, so I'm guessing it's him. But some team might have like Cajuste coming out, think he just had bad injury luck, and he's a distressed asset. That's why I don't think the Patriots give him up. Needs work, but there's something to work with there.
Carl Davis in, Montravius Adams out
Look, none of the interior defensive linemen covered themselves in glory the other night, so you can take some of them and leave some of them. But Davis has been the better player and more consistent player in camp to this point.
They are different players — Davis is big nose tackle type with some penetration potential — while Adams is more of an interior rusher, but the Patriots don't really have a backup for Davon Godchaux. If Christian Barmore is right, Adams is never seeing the field. Plus, he did not look good at the point of attack on Thursday night.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. I do not have time to watch other teams during the preseason with the Patriots so busy, but for kicks, ProFootballFocus.com ranked the rookie QB debuts like this: 6. Mac Jones, 8. Zach Wilson, 25. Justin Fields, 34. Trevor Lawrence (Trey Lance not yet rated). Cam Newton was 23rd.
2. Sorry, Tua. This can't happen.
#Bears deny Tua and the #Dolphins and come away with the interceptionpic.twitter.com/we1qlI7ezl
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 14, 2021
3. After I grade the film, I like to look at other opinions. Think PFF and I were fairly close.
Top 5 defense: Matthew Judon, Myles Bryant, Joejuan Williams (gift), Tashawn Bower, Dee Virgin. Ronnie Perkins deserved to be higher.
Bottom 5 defense: Cassh Maluia, Rashod Berry, Lawrence Guy, Akeem Spence, Jalen Mills, Harvey Langhi.
4. Top 5 offense: Shaq Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers, Brian Hoyer, Mac Jones.
Bottom 5 offense: Will Sherman, Marcus Martin, Matt LaCosse, Devin Asiasi, Isaiah Wynn.
5. Ok, I'll say it: Lawrence Guy is not lighting the world on fire so far this camp. But he's my Guy ... he's just pacing himself. Vet move.