Well, it's finally here. For the first time in 586 days, the Patriots will play a game in front of fans at Gillette Stadium tonight against the Washington Football Team (7:30 p.m., WBZ-Ch. 4/NFL Network). Delayed for a year by Covid, the Patriots will get real-time reaction to their quarterback plans post-Tom Brady and ... it could be interesting.
Cam Newton is expected to get the start and Mac Jones will also play, but how much? We'll have to see. If Newton doesn't get off to a good start, the reaction will be interesting. A subtext to all this is Bill Belichick hasn't been in this situation — with the fans able to make their collective voices heard about the QB situation — since he ousted Bernie Kosar as the Cleveland Browns' starter in 1993.
Obviously the quarterbacks will be the predominant storyline tonight and all season. What we're looking for there and at other spots during tonight's game:
1. Offensive operation.
Stats only tell you so much, even with quarterbacks. The potential for this offense will depend on many other factors. The first is operation of the offense. The No. 1 tenant of the Patriots offense, going back to the days of Brady, is "Don't run bad plays." Not every playcall is going to perfect coming from Josh McDaniels because you're not going to correctly guess the defense every time. In some offenses, that could mean bad things. In the Patriots' offense, the quarterback has mechanisms to get the team into a good play — or at least one that will gain yards. Newton, for whatever reason (and some of them were not his own doing), never came close to doing that last season. Has he made any progress there? He's going to need to, because Jones will get there if he's not there already. We aren't going to see complicated pressures in the preseason, but Newton needs to take what he's learned and apply it in these more basic scenarios.
I think the most important QB statistic tonight will be snap-to-throw time. Newton needs to show he's improved in his pre-snap reads to get the ball out quickly and to the right target. Jones has, at times, tried to be too perfect in practice so he'll also need to get the ball out quickly.
2. Mac vs. NFL speed
If there's one fear I have about Jones initially is that, due to the slow ramp-up in camp, he's not quite ready for the difference in speed to the pro game. He'll eventually get used to it, but could I envision him holding onto the ball too long or thinking he could outrun a defender tonight and look badly while getting hit? Yes. But he's going to need to experience that and adjust to keep ascending, so it's not necessarily a bad thing — if he does make the necessary corrections.
Helping both Newton and Jones tonight will be the fact that Washington was one of the most zone-heavy schemes (60 percent) last season. They are trying to play more man, but we'll believe it when we see it. Helping Newton is that Ron Rivera coached him for years in Carolina and coordinator Jack Del Rio runs a similar zone scheme to the old Panthers.
Still, both Newton and Jones will be chased by one of the fastest defenses in the league, led by edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat, DT Jonathan Allen and fast rookie MLB Jamin Davis. Speaking of which....
3. Patriots offensive line stating its case.
We are pretty sure the Patriots' offensive line will be a top 5 unit given complete health (get well soon, David Andrews!), and tonight is a chance to announce its presence with authority. Last season, Washington's pass rush was one of the most impactful in the league. If the Patriots can shut them down, and run the ball well ... things will be looking really good in Patriotsland.
Isaiah Wynn vs. Chase Young. Trent Brown vs. Montez Sweat. Jonathan Allen vs. Shaq Mason. Da'Ron Payne vs. Mike Onwenu.
Just lather me up right now.
4. N'Keal Harry and the receivers.
Harry having an impressive individual camp has been one of the highlights so far, but he has disappeared of late in team periods. Can his 1-on-1 success translate to the game and can he be more productive? Expect Harry to be given every opportunity to show out to the rest of the league. We think the odds are a little stronger that Harry gets dealt at some point, so Harry looking good to other teams is important.
It's also important for the other receivers to make Harry an afterthought. Can Jakobi Meyers keep getting better? Can Kristian Wilkerson translate his success from the practice field to the game field and make Harry an afterthought? Can Gunner Olszewski show he's more than a punt returner? Will Isaiah Zuber harness his speed for big plays?
5. Can the Patriots cover at cornerback?
We might not see much of this tonight because I expect the Patriots to absolutely wreck a revamped Washington offensive line in all areas, but one of the biggest question marks so far has been at cornerback in camp. The safeties are going to make plays and be involved, but is JC Jackson ready to be a No. 1 cornerback with a big contract? Is Jonathan Jones still a top slot? Can anyone step up — Jalen Mills, Michael Jackson, Dee Virgin, Myles Bryant, D'Angelo Ross — to show they are ready to play effectively should Stephon Gilmore miss regular season time with injury/contract issues? It's been a rocky training camp so far, and this is a good challenge with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries and DeAndre Carter.