Dennis Schröder, improbably, is a member of the Boston Celtics. Something that seemed laughable just a few weeks ago has progressed quickly into a marriage of great convenience for both sides.
Schröder is a good basketball player, but the opinions of just how good tend to vary a bit. The bottom line is that he tends to compare pretty closely to Marcus Smart, despite what some people may think. Schröder had one outlier 3-point shooting season that people tend to remember, but last season he and Smart were fairly identical shooters.
Schröder’s 3-point percentage was 33.5%, just .5 better than Smart’s. His true shooting percentage, a measure that factors in free throws and is weighted to account for 3-pointers, was only .4% better. Their Player Efficiency Rating, or PER, was identical.
There are some things Schröder does better (mostly offensively), there are some things Smart does better (mostly defensively), but both players basically live in the same neighborhood.
So to that end, the Celtics got a Smart-level player (who should reasonably expect to make in the mid-teen million per year range on his next deal) at the $5.9 million taxpayer mid-level.
That’s a big score.
This is a low-risk move with a potentially high reward. If Schröder somehow becomes toxic, the team can just cut him. That would be the worst-case scenario. I can’t even fathom that happening considering how much he wants to get that next big contract. He has to play nice.
The biggest actual risk is that he takes away from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown by trying to pad his stats. There’s the chance that, given the choice between making the right play or the play for himself, Schröder chooses to try to make himself look better in the moment.
This is where Ime Udoka plays a huge role. It’s not just that he’s the coach and he has to put his foot down. It’s that Udoka spent his entire playing career chasing contracts, and if anyone knows the pull of trying to make himself look good on the floor versus making the team better, it’s him.
Of course, Schröder is more talented than Udoka was as a player, but Udoka has been through the constant contract search, and he’s also played with the stars who have earned them. The Celtics brought Udoka in, partly, because he can relate to the players on things like this. So when it comes to Schröder’s motivations, the Celtics will rely heavily on their new coach to help smooth over the bumps in the road.
Udoka might also try to convince Schröder to come off the bench, which sounds counterintuitive to what Schröder would want, but actually plays into his motivations a bit more. The Celtics could try to take advantage of Schröder’s precarious contractual situation to mold him into the player they want for the season.
By taking a sixth man role, Schröder demonstrates his value as a good soldier to other teams. If part of the reason that he sat in free agency was questions about his desired role, this could be something that eases teams’ fears about him. Also, coming off the bench would give him more opportunities with the rest of the bench, thus giving him time to shine as the primary scorer on the floor.
The Celtics can offer Schröder his chance to go get his and the chance to prove he can be a good teammate, all in one shot if he accepts a bench role.
This also allows Boston to keep their continuity in the starting lineup. Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Robert Williams can all still play together with Smart as the primary distributor. It’s a familiar feeling for that group, and it keeps Smart in the primary ball handler role, which is important to the Celtics.
“He’s kind of asked for that and I think he’ll be a great facilitator as well,” Udoka told reporters in Las Vegas. Putting the ball in Smart’s hands will help keep his shooting in check because the first thing Smart will have to do when he crosses halfcourt is give the ball up to start the offense. That will keep some of the shooting in check for Smart while accentuating his tremendous passing ability. If Boston is going to exceed expectations, Smart as the regular point guard and Schröder off the bench might be their best chance.
If things go well, the Celtics have a real chance of sending Schröder to a true contender at the trade deadline in exchange for valuable assets. It won’t be any kind of monster trade because the Celtics don’t have Schröder’s Bird rights, which would transfer to a new team and allow them to sign him to whatever contract they wanted. But the Celtics could still get something good in a bidding war.
They have a player who could be the most valuable asset on the market come the trade deadline. If multiple team are looking at holes at point guard, especially a team that might be a little desperate to move forward in the playoffs like the Los Angeles Clippers, for example, the Celtics might be able to pry a quality pick in exchange for a player who fell into their laps.
It might take some smoothing with the players, especially if Boston is in the middle of a tense playoff race and trading away a valuable sixth man. It would be up to Brad Stevens and Ime Udoka to convince the team that bigger things are coming and the return for Schröder is worth it. Tatum would likely have to join the management side of this argument if he’s convinced it means getting Bradley Beal.
If the Celtics can pry a decent pick, or even two second rounders, for Schröder, they’ll have picked up valuable trade chips that they didn’t have before. Even if those second rounders are used to move unwanted players into someone’s cap space, there is a strong chance the Celtics will get value for Schröder at the deadline.
Schröder’s salary is also an easy match for a young guy who might have fallen out of favor. Should the Celtics be in a position to get a player in return, the $5.9 million is easy to match without making the deal overly complicated. They could even maneuver it so they create another traded player exception for him, giving them a chance to acquire some bench help over the summer or next season.
And finally, on the off-chance that Schröder is such a perfect fit that Boston decides they want him back, his $7 million cap hold is manageable, even as the Celtics pursue max cap space. The trick here is that Schröder would have to want to return and the market for him would have dried up again, but this possibility, even if it’s remote, does exist.
The bottom line is that there is a ton of upside to this deal and very little downside. I’d say the Celtics managed to play free agency perfectly for Schröder, but really all they had was the right opportunity for him to rebuild his value. Stevens did a great job keeping the money to the taxpayer mid-level, keeping Boston from hard-capping themselves, just in case a mid-season blockbuster trade comes along.
From here, it’s up to Schröder and the Celtics to navigate what is probably one season, maybe less, to make the most of this situation for everyone. It has the potential to be a very strong win-win for everyone.
