The NBA draft is here, and while the Boston Celtics currently only have a second round pick (45th overall), there are a lot of intriguing storylines tonight that will reshape the league around Boston, and possibly change the level of competition Ime Udoka faces in his first taste of head coaching.
Here’s what you need to know:
TRADE FOR CADE?
Cade Cunningham is the consensus top pick for a long time, and to many he’s been a no-brainer. But not everyone is sold on just how much better he is than the rest of the top prospects.
There are a few analysts who have wondered out loud if Detroit could pull the same move Danny Ainge did with Jayson Tatum, trade down, and get another asset while still getting a franchise player. Cunningham is the best player in the draft but it’s no lock that we’ll be saying that five years from now.
Oklahoma City is rumored to be offering Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the sixth pick for Cunningham. How enticing is that offer? Will Detroit bite, or will they just do what the consensus says and take Cunningham?
TRADE FOR... ANYONE?
If OKC whiffs on the Cunningham pursuit how far down the board do they go with their offer? Do they offer it to Houston or Cleveland for Evan Mobley or Jalen Green? Do they take it all the way down to 4 and the Toronto Raptors?
The Raptors are one of the most intriguing teams in this draft because they could take back talent from a team looking to trade up to the fourth pick or they can package it with Pascal Siakam and make a bid for one of the potentially available superstars like Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal.
Trades might be the biggest story of the night. The Golden State Warriors, who are obviously in win-now mode with Klay Thompson on his way back to join Steph Curry and Draymond Green. They can try to package 7, 14, and James Wiseman for a star, moving a suddenly rebuilding team into the lottery.
The Memphis Grizzlies have already traded up after a trade with New Orleans, but they’re rumored to be looking to move up even higher than 10. Orlando has picks 5 and 8, which could make them a trade partner for someone.
We just spent months pouring over mock drafts and trying to figure out what each team needs, and it can all get blown up in a matter of minutes tonight. We could be sitting on a powder keg of trades.
AGE IS JUST A NUMBER
Teams don’t usually draft guys a few years into their 20’s but we’re looking at three guys who could go in the lottery that fit that description, headlined by 24-year-old Oregon senior Chris Duarte. He, Davion Mitchell, who is nearly 23, and Corey Kispert, who will turn 23 during the season, are all seen as plug-and-play guys who can more immediately help their teams.
The question is whether those guys will actually help. Players as old as Duarte don’t generally pan out, but he has the talent to have been a top-10 pick if he was younger.
Mitchell is considered one, if not the best, defenders in the draft. A team needing to boost its backcourt defense could look to Mitchell in a smaller Matisse Thybulle sort of way (Mitchell is 6’1”).
Kispert has been compared to Joe Harris in a lot of places, so teams just won’t turn that kind of player down regardless of age. The question here is where the line is between potential and reality. All three of these guys can buck the age trend in the draft, and how high they go could depend on whether some of the win-now teams looking to make a trade are forced to make picks for themselves.
THE WILDCARDS
Alperen Sengun is a big man out of Turkey that has gone from off some analyst big boards to the top 10 in some mock drafts.
Sengun is a non-shooting, slow-footed, undersized center, which is what analysts saw initially. Then he went out and won the Turkish league MVP at 18 because he’s a low post maestro who scores with either hand, finishes through contact, and draws a ton of free throws.
So which will shine through in the NBA? Will he be an offensive wizard whose passing skills make him the second coming of Nikola Jokic, or will he be a liability whose inability to guard anyone make him the second coming of Darko Milicic?
Guys just don’t win MVP in a league as good as Turkey’s and flame out... right? A team is either overlooking some of the rough edges hoping to hit on a future star or a team is ignoring obvious flaws trying to be a copycat.
Another wildcard here is Ziaire Williams. Coming out of high school, Williams was in the discussion with the Jalen Suggs and Scottie Barnes of the world in the second half of the top 10. Then he went to Stanford and had a disaster of a season.
How much of that was his fault? COVID-19 turned Stanford’s season into a permanent road trip. He suffered deaths in his family. Everything that could work against a 19-year-old kid, did. And now the question is how much of his college season was due to circumstance, and how much was reality.
He easily can be a high-upside play who fizzles out or who becomes an All-Star.
Both Williams and Sengun have the potential to trigger conversations about whether GM’s should lose their jobs over the pick. The question is whether it’s the GM’s who took them, or who passed on them.
WHERE DOES BOSTON FIT?
There is absolutely ZERO buzz about the Celtics looking to move up in the second round or into the first round. That’s not to say they won’t, but we would have heard by now from a rival GM that Boston is making calls and is interested in a trade.
Nothing. Radio silence.
So the Celtics appear ready to stick at 45 and either find themselves a two-way project or a draft-and-stash player, either of which could keep money off this year’s books and potentially add a useful player a year or two from now.
There are some intriguing names who fit this. Guys like Daishen Nix, Austin Reaves, or JT Thor have all been mentioned as picks Boston would be interested in making.
We’ll see if Brad Stevens has any tricks up his sleeve, but right now there’s just nothing to indicate he might.
If you’re looking for an alternative to the conventional draft coverage, I invite you to join me, Chad Ford, and Rafael Barlow for a live draft show beginning at 7 PM on the Locked On NBA YouTube channel. It’s also streaming on Roku and Amazon Fire devices.
Here's a quick preview