Patriots will begin training camp on Wednesday morning, with this schedule likely to start:
A lot is expected of this team after, in the words of owner Robert Kraft, a "horrible" 2020 season that saw the Patriots go 7-9 and look up at the Bills and Dolphins in the AFC East — and after spending an NFL record $175 million in guaranteed money.
But with that kind of spending comes a lot of flux to the roster and positions. Usually the Patriots just have to worry about getting a few rookies and veterans up to speed. Now the Patriots have to get many young veterans — players who still have much to learn and prove — and youngsters ready, and not just rookies. Last year's draft class largely underwhelmed and were behind the 8-ball to start due to Covid. With a 53-man roster to meld, you're talking roughly half the players need to be brought up to speed quickly for the Patriots to be contenders just in their own division.
Remember, the Bucs last year basically just added a Hall of Fame quarterback to its talented roster and they meandered to 7-5 before catching fire and winning the Super Bowl.
The Patriots have much more to figure out.
It will all get sorted out on the back fields at Gillette over the next month.
Here's our best guess on how things will land at the end of the day — on QBs, N'Keal Harry, tight ends, Stephon Gilmore and Chase Winovich — before the inevitable injuries that make me look like an idiot.
1. The starting quarterback on opening day will be...
You didn't think I'd just come right out and state it, did you? Gotta make you work a little harder than that.
I keep going back and forth on this and anything can happen. I do think Cam Newton will get the nod early in camp, and Mac Jones may have some struggles ... part of being a rookie against a good defense.
But when all is said and done, I think it's going to be clear — from practices and the preseason games — that Jones clearly has a better grasp of the offense and throws in rhythm with the offense. And I think Newton is going to struggle at some point, that will give Jones his opening. He just needs to be ready for it.
I think he will, and I think Jones will be the starter on opening day and the competition won't be close once we look back at it. I expect Newton to be the consummate professional and his being the backup will be one of the biggest non-stories ever. As an added bonus, I expect Jones to struggle in a game and Newton to nearly bring the team back, leading to a little controversy. But Jones will retain the job and be better for it.
2. N'Keal Harry will show some promise ...
... which will be good for the Patriots because it will mean they will get decent compensation when they eventually trade him.
After a very slow start to camp, Harry starts to steadily come on and flourishes with Jones in two preseason games. But Bill Belichick has not forgotten about the public trade request or how Harry's agent basically called Belichick's coaching into question.
Belichick eventually trades Harry to the Cardinals in exchange for slot WR Andy Isabella and a sixth-round pick.
3. Both high-priced tight ends miss extended time due to injury ...
... before the season starts.
However, after Belichick's GM skills are once again called into question and he is skewered by 98.5 The SportsHub (WEEI wouldn't dare), Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are both active for the season opener against the Dolphins and contribute one touchdown each. That leads to a couple of days of extended BLEH-ing of Tony Massarotti, which we're all here for and support wholeheartedly.
4. Patriots eventually give Stephon Gilmore the Brady deal.
Gilmore plays the good soldier and eventually returns to the practice field in the third week of training camp. After a week of ramp-up time, Gilmore displays his skills in the closed practices and the Patriots have seen enough. There will be no long-term extension that makes Gilmore among the highest-paid cornerbacks in the league, but the two sides strike a deal that bumps up Gilmore's pay to $12.5 million plus incentives (will be billed as 'up to $16 million') but tacks on a voidable year. Gilmore is free to try free agency and eventually does find a contract with the Saints for 2022.
5. Chase Winovich is traded at cutdowns.
Once Kyle Van Noy is back and the defense is at full strength, it becomes apparent that Winovich is down the depth chart behind Matthew Judon and Josh Uche. Belichick picks up the phone and tells Mike Vrabel and Jon Robinson that Winovich is a good player, but he's a better fit for the Titans, who are low on edge rushers and are desperately seeking a shot at the title after investing in the Artist Formerly Known as Julio Jones.
Winovich makes one more trip to the White Mountains, laments the loss of the Granite State but vows to return. However, he becomes enamored with the Great Smoky Mountains and eventually declares that Tennessee has overtaken NH in his "God State" rankings while staring into cameras.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)