After initial resistance on their part, it now seems like the Washington Nationals would be willing to move starter Max Scherzer. That's a name that will get the attention of nearly every contending team -- the Red Sox included.
Whether they're intrigued enough to get into the bidding is another matter altogether. Teams routinely do their due diligence this time of year, expressing interest in most available players while not always serious about their intentions. You never know until you call.
Scherzer is easily the best available starter on an even-thinner-than-usual starter's market. Until the Nats decided to wave the white flag in the National League East, the two best starters to be had were Kyle Gibson of Texas and Jose Berrios of Minnesota.
Gibson is having a career year at age 33 with a 6-3 record and 2.87 ERA. The fact that Gibson is under control through 2022 at a reasonable salary ($9.6 million this year, $7.6 million next) makes him all the more attractive. But surely there is some uncertainty surrounding Gibson, who had sub-4.00 ERA just twice. Is this year's performance an aberration? Surely, there's some concern that while he has a tidy 1.77 ERA in the new pitcher-friendly ballpark in Arlington, his road ERA is more than twice that (3.95).
As for Berrios, there's little doubt that he's durable -- he's on pace to top 190 innings for the third consecutive full season. But because Berrios, too, is under control through the end of next year and the Twins are intent on contending for 2022, they've set their asking price absurdly high, almost daring interested teams to meet it.
Does that sound like the kind of deal Chaim Bloom would willingly make?
The remainder of the starting pitching market is so much flotsam and jetsam — primarily featuring the kind of arm that would fit fine into a No. 4 or No. 5 spot, but hardly someone who would elevate a team's pennant chances.
Scherzer, of course, is different. He's been one of the handful of best starters in the game for the last decade, In the last seven seasons, Scherzer has won three Cy Young Awards, finished in the top three in balloting in two other seasons and finished fifth two other times. This year, at age 37, he hardly seems to be slowing down though he was scratched from his most recent start because of some triceps soreness. He's got a 2.83 ERA and a WHIP of 0.886, the lowest of his career. He's been as dominant as ever, too, averaging 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Scherzer isn't some guy to fill out a rotation; he's someone who could top a rotation, at least ones that don't feature a returning Chris Sale. Imagine a Red Sox rotation of Sale in Game 1, Scherzer in Game 2, Nathan Eovaldi is Game 3 and Eduardo Rodriguez in Game 4. All four have extensive playoff experience and that quartet would be as formidable as any in the American League.
Scherzer can be a difference-maker for any team he joins, right up to the defending champion Dodgers, who have shown interest in him. Naturally, the bidding that will go on among a half-dozen or so contenders will only serve to drive up Washington's asking price.
(There's also the matter of Scherzer's 10-5 rights, which will give him a degree of control in where he's dealt. He can eliminate some teams from consideration and force the Nats to negotiate with a small group of prospective bidders. And Scherzer's $35 million salary for 2021 would result in nearly $9 million being added to a Red Sox payroll, sending them whooshing past the first CBT threshold of $210, from where they now sit approximately $3 million shy. Hey, in for a dime, in for a dollar.).
The return cost for prospects has dipped in recent years, as organizations become more protective of their best young players. No teams want to sacrifice multiple inexpensive and controllable players for two months of a player.
But Scherzer is unquestionably an impact acquisition. He would get about 10 starts for the remainder of the regular season, but his real value would come in October. As Scherzer's own Nationals demonstrated in 2019, a rotation consisting of strong starting pitchers can go a long way in the postseason. (The season prior, the Red Sox had made the same point, albeit not quite as convincingly as the Nats would the following year).
Bloom has vowed not to have the progress he's made building up in the organization get derailed for one shot at another World Series. The goal is sustainability and having the Sox positioned to make a credible run at a championship every season without subjecting the fan base to the kind of maddening boom-bust pattern that has marked the franchise over the last decade.
However, Bloom has also noted that he owes it to the franchise to try to add pieces when they're positioned for a playoff run. This is one of those times. Max Scherzer is one of those pieces.
If it's hard to quantify how much one more reliever or a lefty first baseman could mean to the Sox, it's not so difficult to imagine the difference Scherzer could make.
The Nationals are due at least a phone call from the Red Sox. Where things go after that is unknown. But unless Washington is demanding one of the five best prospects in the Red Sox' system, this feels like one of those rare risky moves worth making.