The Milwaukee Bucks are on the verge of an NBA title. If they take care of business tonight, they’ll win their first championship since 1971.
That’s both good and bad for the Boston Celtics. Here are a few reasons why.
Good: The championship (and Olympic) hangover
Championship teams tend to take a step backward the next regular season, which could be a window for the Celtics to jump in the standings. Playoff positioning could be key for the Celtics next playoffs, so a Milwaukee team that coasts its way to a lower seed can be just what Boston needs to grab home court for an extra round or two.
That hangover could be especially prominent this upcoming season considering Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are heading to Tokyo for the Olympics once the Finals are done. That’s going to add a few weeks of high-level basketball to their legs, which will probably contribute to a slow start for Milwaukee next season.
The Celtics have a chance to pounce on a sluggish November and December to build a lead and grab a more favorable playoff draw.
Bad: Middle-tier free agents might pass on Boston for Milwaukee
The Celtics will only have the taxpayer mid-level exception, approximately $5.9 million, to spend on free agents. If the Bucks are the defending champions, they’ll essentially move to the front of the line for the types of free agents Boston is fighting for.
The Celtics could provide an opportunity for some of those free agents to get more playing time and bump up their value, but the ring-chasers in that group could latch onto the Bucks instead of Boston as they try to get championships of their own.
One free agent signing isn’t going to break the Celtics, but the competition for talent is what it is, and the Celtics can’t really afford another strike against them.
Good: The three-star system might not be everyone’s focus
Milwaukee’s three best players are clear, but Jrue Holiday is a one-time All-Star. This isn’t a case of the Bucks beating the Brooklyn Nets at their own game. This is one mega-star, one All-Star, and one guy who is really good who made an All-Star game once.
The Bucks have depth and are getting contributions from other guys on the team. The Bobby Portis story is one that’s never been more valuable. Teams looking to build their own version of the Bucks could decide that the three-star system is too susceptible to injury and try something different.
That could lessen the competition for the third star Boston might be hoping for. Maybe that takes the heat off the pursuit for Bradley Beal and it costs Boston slightly less.
Maybe that reduces the need for a star like Beal altogether and Boston can allocate its resources elsewhere.
The “depth vs. third star” discussion has already been happening around the league. Milwaukee winning it all just makes that conversation louder.
Bad: Giannis Antetokounmpo is sticking around for a while
Any hopes of Giannis pulling a Damian Lillard would basically go out the window if Milwaukee wins a title. Antetokounmpo would already have his ring, so the almost 27-year-old would not feel compelled to force his way out of his current situation to find his championship situation in a few years.
That means Giannis is probably in Milwaukee for the long haul, putting a megastar in Boston’s way for the foreseeable future.
It also reduces Milwaukee’s need to add pieces around Giannis to appease him. They can make their personnel decisions without fear of Antetokounmpo’s wrath, and maybe even make even better team-building decisions now that the ring is on Giannis’ finger.
For Antetokounmpo, this would be a bit of vindication. He got to do it on his own, in his original city, without being traded. There are a lot of current NBA greats who can’t say the same. The sense of pride that goes along with that is meaningful.
Good (for everyone): A small market figures it out
The NBA kinda needs this to work out. The small-market Bucks are the anomaly in the player-empowerment era. They will forever be Adam Silver’s pride and joy for providing him proof that parity exists.
The entire NBA world was trying to find ways to trade Giannis prior to this season. The Bucks seemed hapless as they botched the Bogdan Bogdanovic sign and trade, costing themselves a 2022 pick in the process. They went all-in on Holiday, drawing raised eyebrows and an Arrested Development-like “him?” when people saw the assets given up.
For the Bucks to come out of the other end of all of that with a title would be the sweetest vindication.
And it would be sweet for the league, too.
Good for them. Good for a small market to not cave to the pressure and keep their star. Good for that star to make that commitment. In an age where contracts seem meaningless, it’s good to see them mean something for the Bucks.
