Lightning GM Julien BriseBois didn’t mince words when it came to discussing the harsh realities his team might face this summer regarding a flat salary cap and the tons of talent on Tampa’s roster that needs to be retained.
Despite all of the cap gymnastics that the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions pulled off this past season in order to fuel yet another title run, this summer does seem to be the reckoning that many expected that the Bolts would face last offseason.
Some of that was mapped out by way of the protected list that Tampa rolled out this past weekend in advance of the Seattle expansion draft — with key cogs like Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat all unprotected and ripe for the picking for Ron Francis and the Kraken.
But with so much money already committed to other foundational pieces in Tampa’s lineup, BriseBois admitted even earlier this offseason that it likely wasn’t going to be able to lock down its pending UFAs due for major pay raises — including Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow.
“It's going to be challenging," BriseBois said of retaining Goodrow and Coleman. "The reality is that those two players have earned substantial raises and we might not be in a position to be the one that gives it to them."
Sure enough, Tampa followed through by dealing Goodrow’s rights to the Rangers on Saturday — with the Blueshirts reportedly on the verge of locking up the bottom-six forward on a six-year deal. Ouch.
Coleman, 29 going on 30 in November, may not secure a contract with as much term as Goodrow, but he is certainly set to receive a payout far beyond the $1.8 million annual cap hit he commanded over the last three years.
Any contending team with cap flexibility is likely going to check in on the bidding war that’s expected to come this summer for Coleman — a versatile, veteran winger that’s good for 20 goals a season and can play an effective two-way game. After leaving his fingerprints all over two Cup runs, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Coleman’s next deal could pay him $4.5-5 million per year.
Now, if the Bruins end up winning the Coleman sweepstakes, I’d be more than okay with such a development. It might be an overpay, but if you’re looking to fill the middle-six hole that the Bruins have on their roster, Coleman is a great option if Boston is simply looking to go all-in over the next year or two — even if that contract may look pretty dicey down the road.
But be it Charlie McAvoy’s looming payday in 2022, a more appealing free-agent class that same summer — or the fact that Boston is going to have to commit plenty of cap elsewhere this season if it wants to …
Retain the services of pending UFAs like David Krejci and Taylor Hall
Potentially re-sign Tuukka Rask, and if not, spend more money to bring in a veteran goalie to pair with Jeremy Swayman/Dan Vladar
Beef up their blue line with free-agent additions like a Ryan Suter, Jamie Oleksiak, Jake McCabe and others
… they’re going to need all the cap space they can get. As such, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if Boston is also scouring this free-agent market in search of some bargain deals for players that can bolster Boston’s depth and potentially bring solid returns without paying a premium on UFAs who might have already maxed out their value.
These are by no means options that are going to replace, say, a Coleman up front or an Oleksiak on the blue line — but in what could be a very, very busy offseason, the Bruins might be setting themselves up for some solid returns if they scoop up one of these under-the-radar players for third-pairing / bottom-six roles.
Michael Bunting, Winger
Can a player like Barclay Goodrow help a team like the Bruins in a bottom-six role? Absolutely. But given how much cap space Boston must allocate elsewhere, perhaps the priority this offseason is not to overpay and over-extended for a bottom-six stalwart like Goodrow, but rather, find the NEXT Goodrow and reap the benefits of a breakout player thriving under an affordable deal.
And when it comes to potential boom-or-bust potential, a guy like Bunting could be far more appealing as a compliment to another legit top-six addition like a Kyle Palmieri or Conor Garland.
Bunting is a very, very interesting case in that he should be available for a cheap, cheap deal — but his sample size (while impressive) is VERY small.
After toiling around in the AHL for years (and putting up solid numbers in the process), the 25-year-old Bunting finally earned his shot up with Arizona last year and absolutely thrived — scoring 10 goals over 21 games while skating with some of the ‘Yotes top forwards.
That goal-scoring tear played a big part in why the forward was handed a WAR reading in the 99th percentile by @JFreshHockey, but his absurd scoring rate was not the only driver in those metrics, as he also ranked in the 87th percentile of even-strength defense among NHL forwards.
Now, is that 26.3% shooting percentage sustainable? Of course not.
But even if Bunting's production tails off from the near 40-goal pace he was on at the end of last year, the winger does project as another potential bargain-bin pickup that in the right situation could develop into a high-energy regular capable of potting 15-20 goals a season.
There’s a lot of intrigue with a high-energy shooter like Bunting, who still likely isn’t going to break the bank as a free agent this summer. If there’s a fit, Bunting could be a scoring piece that could thrive on a reworked fourth line, or perhaps even higher up in the lineup if his metrics don’t tail off with a new team.
Bunting can and won’t be the top target up front for the Bruins this summer, but if he’s added to the mix alongside one of Garland/Palmieri/etc., Boston’s scoring depth should already be much improved from where it was a year ago.
Perhaps Bunting is the next Coleman/Goodrow and Boston scoops up a 20-goal scorer for a cheap price. Or perhaps Bunting is just a career AHLer that benefited off of a crazy hot streak to close out the season. But given the cheap cost it would take to sign him, Bunting sure seems like a gamble worth taking for a team in desperate need of finishers like the B’s.
Jani Hakanpaa, Defensemen
Odds are that you’ve already seen Hakanpaa’s name brought up a couple of times as a potential B’s FA target — and for good reason. If Boston ends up losing Connor Clifton in the upcoming expansion draft, the Bruins suddenly have another hole to fill on their blue line, beyond just the fairly obvious need to beef up their left side.
With Clifton gone and Kevan Miller retired, Boston could use a dependable, physical body to slot into that third-pairing slot — but likely don’t have the means to pay for a top-flight name given their other cap commitments.
Given those factors, Hakanpaa makes plenty of sense as a cheap option that can add a considerable amount of thump to Boston’s D corps.
What you see is more or less what you get with Hakanpaa — a big body (6-foot-5, 218 pounds) that hits everything in sight (his 215 hits were third in the league last season), can contribute on the PK, has very strong defensive metrics and a limited offensive game.
Jani Hakanpaa with a big hit on Erik Haula 💪💪💪 pic.twitter.com/VM4yuZFZMd
— Alex Ohári 🇭🇺🔴⚪️ (@FutureCanes) May 18, 2021
Granted, with guys like Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and a potential offseason addition or two adding more playmaking ability to this blue line, it’s not like the B’s are expecting a Paul Coffey out there on their third D pair. If Hakanpaa injects some nasty into Boston’s lineup and emerges as a dependable stalwart lower down in the lineup, he’ll be well worth whatever likely affordable deal Boston hands him.
He’s a bit of a late bloomer in that the 29-year-old defenseman has only logged one full season of NHL hockey (he spent a few years back in Finland after spending the early part of his pro career in the AHL/ECHL), but Hakanpaa sure seems like a low-risk option with a pretty solid floor on a good NHL club.
Of all the names on this list, Hakanpaa might be the best bet of actually donning a B’s sweater in the next couple of months, although I wouldn’t be surprised if other teams express interest in adding the physical skater as a depth option.
Matt Calvert, Forward
Calvert is an interesting case if Boston wants to add a fourth-liner via free agency, with the veteran likely set to sign for a cheap deal for 2021-22 after only appearing in 18 games this past season due to injury. The 31-year-old’s poor injury luck and his subsequent decline as far as production goes (just three assists in those 18 games) might make this more of a gamble, but he could be a buy-low option that could develop into an effective two-way force if he regains his form with a clean bill of health. Prior to last year’s multiple run-ins with the injury bug, Calvert had posted at least 20 points in six of his last seven seasons, while also holding his own defensively.
A respected vet in the Avs’ room that’s more than willing to drop the gloves and throw his weight around the forecheck, Calvert could be a great addition to a veteran-heavy B’s roster if Boston expects that his injury woes are behind him.
Josh Leivo, Forward
If Boston is looking for another low-cost, veteran option to add to what could be a fourth-line overhaul, Leivo should draw some interest. After fracturing his kneecap back in December 2019 with the Canucks (while on a 40+-point pace at the time), Leivo returned last season on a one-year deal with the Flames — posting nine points over 38 games and averaging a little under 11 minutes of ice time.
Josh Leivo undresses Jordan Binnington for the shootout winner 🔥 pic.twitter.com/4O7lSL76TZ
— Awesemo NHL DFS (@AwesemoNHL) October 18, 2019
His ceiling as a true play-driving winger in a middle-six grouping might have come and gone, but the 28-year-old forward could still excel on a fourth line as a skilled forechecker, especially another year removed from that knee injury. Much like Calvert, Leivo is a bit of a gamble given his injuries, but if Boston is looking to really uproot that fourth line beyond just turning minutes over to the kids, Leivo stands as another intriguing offseason addition.
Jake McCabe, Defenseman
Boston should still be on the prowl for a legit top-pairing defenseman out in free agency or on the trade market, but if Boston rounds out its D corps by adding cheaper options like Hakanpaa and McCabe as third-pairing options, the B’s could have a pretty stout D corps in 2021 and beyond.
We covered McCabe and his viability as a top free-agent pickup for Boston back in June, but to re-hash some of the key points — had it not been for a season-ending injury knee injury back in February, McCabe very well could be ahead of names like Oleksiak and Alec Martinez as the most appealing left-shot D available in free agency.
The 27-year-old blueliner may not be ready at the very start of the 2021-22 season, but he’s the perfect buy-low candidate that seems destined to make good on whatever team hands him a potential “prove it” deal this summer.
A top-four fixture on Buffalo’s D corps, McCabe was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise woeful Sabres squad last year — averaging 19:11 of ice time and stocking up his highlight reels with a number of thunderous hits and strong D-zone play.
Despite having just 42.62 percent of his faceoffs set in the O-zone, the Sabres posted an expected goals against per 60 minutes rate of 1.58 when McCabe was out on the ice — as opposed to a dreadful 2.62 xGA/60 rate when he was on the bench or injured.
Is he as sure of a bet as an Ekholm or Suter? Certainly not. But if Boston is able to ink him to an affordable price and he returns with a clean bill of health, McCabe could offer tremendous value as a player that, even on a good team, could project as a top-four option.
If Boston opens camp with a D corps like …
{Insert top D target here - Ekholm? Suter? Oleksiak?} - McAvoy
Grzelcyk-Carlo
McCabe - Hakanpaa
… opposing forwards could be in for a rough time next year.
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I'll state again, I don't expect the Bruins to just spend the entire offseason sorting through the clearance section for help in the bottom-six and on the blue line. But given how much help the B's need to shore up these spots on this roster, Boston can't simply open up its wallet and scoop up every pricy UFA and fix said issues. Acquiring or signing a top target or two is a very tangible scenario this summer, but if Boston wants to round out its roster and secure some much-needed depth, it's going to have to bring in other legit contributors at fair value. This may not be the most loaded UFA class in league history, but there are plenty of very intriguing options available for cheap that could turn a great offseason into an excellent one if the B's strike gold.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.
