The month of July has just begun, with the Red Sox in possession of the best record in the American League and quite likely to head into the All-Star break sitting in first place in the American League East.
Those two developments alone would have been almost unimaginable only a few months ago when playing at a .500 level or better at this point of the season would have been viewed as accomplishment enough. Instead, the Red Sox have blown past expectations, having already made good on their manager's forecast of a fun summer in Boston.
Now, however, expectations have been adjusted. The club has posted winning records in each of the first three months and the Red Sox can come close to clinching a .500 record for the 2021 season with another this month.
But, we digress.
There's plenty on tap for the next four weeks and each will have an impact on the remainder of the season -- and in some cases, beyond.
Here are four things to focus on for the Red Sox in July:
1. The All-Star Game.
OK, it's an exhibition game at heart, and it should be treated as such. Interleague play, the elimination of league offices and the blending of the umpiring staffs have blurred the distinction between the two leagues.
Yup, got it.
But in addition to being the best All-Star Game and the one to which fans pay the most attention, it's also a gauge of star power.
So far, the Red Sox have two participants -- third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts. For the former, earning the starting nod at third confirms his status as one of the handful of best under-25 players in the game, a recognition that, frankly, has been overdue. And for the latter, it's an affirmation that he's become one of the most consistent top players in the game. That, too, has been a long time coming.
That Devers and Bogaerts were voted in together, to form the starting left side of the infield in the American League, is symbolic, too, since the two are now the twin faces of the Red Sox franchise.
It's also a reminder that in today's competitive marketplace that star power means something. When the Red Sox dealt off Mookie Betts 17 months ago, there formed a narrative that the Red Sox would never again build around star players, and that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was brought in to replicate the Tampa Bay Rays' more anonymous approach to roster-building.
Neither was ever true, of course, but that didn't prevent the theory from morphing into an accepted truth.
Especially in a market like Boston, where each sport is now a 12-month-a-year business enterprise and there's a battle for the hearts, minds, wallets and eyeballs of New England fans to consume, watch and buy tickets to games, having players who resonate with fans is critical. Devers and Bogaerts give the Red Sox some identity and seeing them grouped with the other 50 or so top players in the game places them in that context.
And there's also this: there's a good chance Matt Barnes will join Bogaerts and Devers in Denver to represent the Sox. (J.D. Martinez, Nate Eovaldi and Alex Verdugo are, to varying degrees, potential extras).
But it's all but guaranteed that Barnes will be selected, which means the top three Sox All-Stars are each approaching a contractual crossroads. Barnes is eligible for free agency after this year and hasn't yet been extended. Devers is under control through 2023, but the Sox would be wise to get going on a long-term contract extension before too much time elapses and he's close enough to the free-agent finish line that, like Betts, he wants to see where he stands in the marketplace.
And finally, Bogaerts has an opt-out in his deal after the 2022 season. Meanwhile, five All-Star caliber shortstops will test the market this winter, and Bogaerts will be watching to determine his future worth relative to what's handed out to his colleagues.
Three players, three uncertain futures in Boston. Just sayin'.
2. The schedule.
The Red Sox are currently in the middle of a demanding stretch, finishing up a portion of the schedule that will conclude Thursday with 19 games in the span of 20 days. Included in this is the current West Coast road trip, which has them playing the A's, one of the three best teams in the league, and then matches them with the resurgent Angels, carried by the magnificent Shohei Ohtani.
But that's nothing to what awaits them after the All-Star break, when the Red Sox will play 18 straight against their three closest competitors -- the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays.
A month or so ago, that run looked like a gauntlet that could doom their postseason hopes. A poorly timed losing streak in the middle of that cluster of games could have sent the Sox reeling, exposed as not-yet-ready imposters, ill-equipped to contend with the division powers.
Now? The opposite is true. It's conceivable that, instead, the Sox could use that run of games to do the eliminating themselves. In particular, the Yankees would appear to be the most vulnerable. With two four-game series taking place on the first two weekends of the second half, two series wins by the Red Sox -- they've yet to lose a game to the Yankees this season, sweeping them in three-game sets both home and away -- could effectively count New York out of the division title chase.
Likewise, the Blue Jays can't afford to give up much more ground in the race. They play the Sox a staggering 10 times in the span of 21 days (extending into the first week of August) and would need to win more than half of those head-to-head meetings to remain within hailing distance of first place.
Neither the Yankees nor the Jays could be counted down and out, but unless they make up ground in this three-week window, they will make it very difficult for themselves.
Against the backdrop of this key stretch, Bloom will be watching closely to see how the current roster stacks up against quality competition. Will some flaws be exposed? Will the Sox emerge from the first couple of weeks in such firm command of the division race that Bloom can look ahead to fortifying his team for October rather than the final two months of the regular season?
All of which leads us to...
3) The Trade Deadline.
Moved up to July 30 this year because the 31st falls on Saturday, this already figures to be a far different experience for Bloom than it was a year ago.
In 2020, with the Sox hopelessly out of the running mere weeks into the abbreviated schedule, Bloom was in sell-mode -- as well he should have been -- and dealt off a handful of veterans (Mitch Moreland, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, Kevin Pillar and Josh Osich) in exchange for a bushel of prospects. By all accounts, Bloom did well for himself, especially with the acquisition of pitchers Nick Pivetta, Connor Seabold and Jacob Wallace.
This deadline will feature Bloom looking to add rather than subtract and here's where things will become complicated.
A year ago, every one of the veterans traded away except Hembree was going to be eligible for free agency at the end of the season and it was easy to move on from every one, given that none -- due to age and declining performance -- was an essential building block for the next great Red Sox team.
This year, with his position happily flipped, Bloom must achieve a delicate balance -- adding to a team positioned for a playoff run while not derailing the rebuilding process begun when he was hired.
Having scoured the industry through the Rule 5 draft, minor league free agents, and trades, Bloom has helped improve the Red Sox minor league system, with a particular focus on pitching -- the area the organization has largely failed to draft and develop on its own.
The Red Sox didn't move up much in the rankings of the game's minor league system from last year to this year, but that's a function of the lack of a 2020 minor league system, when it became difficult to evaluate the talent on hand. It would surprise absolutely no one to see the Boston system vault from No. 20 or so -- where most experts had them entering the 2021 season - to near the Top 10.
Of course, that can't happen if he disassembles the progress that he's made.
It's hard to imagine the Red Sox dealing anyone from, say, their Top 10 or so prospects in a deal - unless the player coming in return could be controlled beyond this year.
For short-term rentals, the Sox will deal from the lower depths of the minors. Maybe some of those players will develop into big leaguers years down the road, the way Frankie Montas and J.B. Wendelken did as part of the 2013 deal for Jake Peavy. Or maybe they won't.
But know this: the Sox aren't about to entertain any talks that call for them to surrender Triston Casas, Jeter Downs, Gilberto Jimenez, Brayan Bello or Nick Yorke.
Fortunately for Bloom, the Sox' immediate needs are modest -- for the time being anyway. They could use a lefthanded complement to Bobby Dalbec at first base. And like every other team with a dream of the postseason, some bullpen reinforcements would be a nice, attainable goal.
But assuming no injuries to the rotation and continued progress on the part of Chris Sale, how much of a thin starting pitching market would represent an upgrade for the Red Sox? How much better would, say, Kyle Gibson or Jon Gray -- two of the most prominently mentioned starters on the market -- be than what they currently have. Would both be better than Martin Perez or Garrett Richards, in his current state of reinvention? Sure.
Not, however, at a cost of a couple of good prospects, which would likely be the ask.
By the end of the month, Bloom understands he has a responsibility to improve the roster and reward the Red Sox for how they've overachieved. But not at the expense of the organization's foundation, or its chances to contend in 2022, 2023 and beyond.
"Sustainability'' may be the watchword most uttered by Bloom and his staff. They're not about to upend that for a shiny bauble rental. Nor should they.
4. The Draft.
For the first time, the draft will take place in conjunction with the All-Star Game, to bring it more attention. That in itself is quite a leap forward for MLB, which, not all that long ago, conducted its annual amateur draft almost in secret, right down to trying to hide from the players themselves which round they were drafted in so as to gain negotiating leverage. (Swear to God, that's true).
This year, through the magic of their last-place finish in 2020, the Sox will select fourth overall -- their highest draft position since the mid-1960s and only the third time this century that they've had a Top 10 pick.
Selecting fourth is nothing to boast about, of course. It's an unsparing reflection of how poor you were the previous season, and the Sox have no intention of choosing this close to the top anytime soon. If they do, something's gone horribly wrong under the Bloom Administration.
But since they're here, they might as well make the most of it.
While picking fourth will give the Sox access to one of the premier players in the draft, their selection won't happen in a vacuum. The top of the draft is unsettled just a week away from the first round (Sunday night), with no consensus built on the top choice.
This much seems rather likely, if not certain: the top four players will include two prep shortstops (Marcelo Mayer from southern California and Jordan Lawlar from Dallas), a college catcher (Henry Davis from the University of Louisville) and a college starting pitcher (Jack Leiter from Vanderbilt).
At this point, it would seem the Sox will get one of those players with the pick, with most in the game believing that Leiter or Davis is the best bet for Boston.
More than any other draft -- with the possible exception of hockey -- the baseball draft is driven by factors other than position or immediate need. That's partly because even the best prospects need several years of development time in the minors, during which positional needs could greatly at the major league level.
There's a school of thought that suggests, given the Red Sox' struggles to develop starting pitching, they can't afford to pass an opportunity to choose someone with Leiter's profile since, again, they don't expect to be anywhere near this drafting position again anytime soon.
However, that ignores the randomness and general unpredictability of the draft. The best pitcher in the world, Jacob deGrom, was tabbed in the ninth round of the draft. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, when they last had a Top 10 pick (2013) took pitcher Trey Ball, who never made it out of Double-A and is now out of the game entirely.
What about the chance to take a potential franchise catcher like Davis? Not long ago, the Red Sox thought they had a superstar catcher in the making with the signing of international catcher Daniel Flores, who tragically passed at 17 with complications from cancer. Davis would be a chance to give them a catcher who, conceivably, could fill that role, and given his college pedigree, sooner rather than later.
Or maybe the Sox would be best to not pass on either Mayer or Lawlar, should either of them fall. True, as prep stars, they would likely need an absolute minimum of three years before they could contribute at the major league level. But if they're truly the best talents available according to Red Sox scouts, the payoff could well be worth it.
Either way, it's an exciting time. The 2020 season was a miserable time for both the organization and its fans. Next Sunday, the one positive resulting from it will arrive.
And it will be just the start of an utterly fascinating month for the franchise.