There will always be a few shockers when you do 53-man roster projections, and considering the influx of talent the Patriots have had via free agency and the need to create a layer of young talent out of recent draft picks, Patriots fans should prepare themselves for a lot of surprising moves this summer.
If there aren't many injuries, the Patriots are going to have some very difficult decisions when it comes to the roster.
A look at some of the tougher ones that I had, my thinking about them and why many are not as simple as getting rid of one fullback.
First, the entire projection:
IN: RB J.J. Taylor, RB
OUT: RB James White, RB
This got a lot of airtime on the podcast, if you want a little more of a discussion.
Part of this decision had to do with what I've seen to this point. Putting aside what White was dealing with off the field — and I'm not minimizing it, he could have left the team for the rest of the season, but it's also factually correct to say that many players are dealing with serious issues off the field that we don't know about — he had a subpar season.
In a vacuum, you would say he's in decline at age 29 after 678 career touches, 4,424 scrimmage yards and 35 touchdowns. White's 5.9 yards per touch were WAY down from his career average of 6.5. And that doesn't even get into the blocking issues he had. I know the Patriots are largely giving him a mulligan due to what was going on last season, but White did not light the world on fire in this camp — after being available to any and every team.
Meanwhile, Taylor feels like he is coming on hard. He had a great camp, has special teams value, is more of a down-field target than White ... Taylor has a lot of things going for him.
Ideally, an injury allows you to keep both guys. Maybe that's the way it works out. But outside of that? I think it's hard to keep two undersized pass backs after the drafting of Rhamondre Stevenson. He gets the redshirt spot. I mean, could he in theory make Sony Michel expendable? Yes, but it's impossible to say that at this point.
Other potential moves that I disagree with...
Don't keep Brandon Bolden: I highly doubt this. They love his leadership (it was missed his one year in Miami and last year) and he brings special teams value and is the perfect No. 3 back. Stevenson is more likely never to see the field and the Foxboro Flu would be nice. And cutting him and signing him for Week 2 is pointless ... he's still going to be on the roster and someone has to go.
Get rid of one fullback: Maybe, but I doubt it and we'll get into that in a minute.
Go with two QBs: So you're going to go with an oft-injured Cam Newton and a rookie QB with nothing else? I don't see that either.
That's it. That's the fat on offense. If you try to find Bolden's spot on special teams/defense, then you're getting rid of Justin Bethel and Cody Davis, and that ain't happening.
IN: Dalton Keene, FB/TE
OUT: N'Keal Harry, WR
Also talked about on the podcast, I want to give Harry more time to transition to being a big slot (which the Patriots have shown interest in, in the recent past with Mohamed Sanu). But TE/FB is a choke point on this roster because everyone is such an unknown.
You can't just say "keep one fullback." First of all, we don't even know if Keene can even play at this point, let alone fullback when the team needs a yard or two. And they love Jakob Johnson. Secondly, the Patriots gave up a ton in the draft to get Keene and he gives you coverage in a couple spots should injuries hit, and I think he's going to be a special teams fixture.
I'm not quite ready to get rid of Devin Asiasi yet, either.
So for me and this TE-heavy offense, I'm going with more there, rather than at WR where the Patriots normally keep four.
IN: Montravius Adams, DT
OUT: Byron Cowart, DT
I want Cowart on the roster because I think he has a high ceiling when it clicks, but Adams' usage in minicamp showed me they like him a lot, and that Cowart might be on the outs. He had his chance last year to grab a starting spot and instead the Patriots went out and signed every 3-4 DL they could find. That should tell you a lot.
Let me also point out that with no pads in camp, this is a complete guess.
But I'm all for a summer competition in one-on-ones. May the best man win and succeed Adam Butler (Christian Barmore also in it). Let's go!!
IN: Joshuah Bledsoe, S
OUT: Marcus Martin, C/G
Bledsoe has been recovering from wrist surgery so we're not sure what the sixth-round pick can do, but assuming he's a player and they want to hang onto him (trying to get to the practice squad also possible), I kept him on the roster instead of a fifth interior lineman.
IN: Raekwon McMillan
OUT: Anfernee Jennings
Another position where lack of pads limits what you really know. I'll admit, I've always been fascinated by McMillan dating back to his Dolphins days. He has some nice physical tools — he can run and blitz pretty well — and I've always wondered how he would do with better coaching. Now we'll get our answer.
I think Chase Winovich has way more trade value than Jennings, so didn't consider keeping Winovich. If the Patriots liked Jennings, they wouldn't have signed every LB under the sun. I just have a hard time seeing where Jennings gets any time on this roster. I'd rather have Harvey Langhi way more than Jennings.