Evaluating the winner and loser of a trade can take a while under the simplest of circumstances. And because most -- though surely not all -- baseball deals involve swapping an established player for a couple (or handful) of minor leaguers, the lag time is longer.
And when you factor in that some deals involve teenagers who have yet to play affiliated ball in North America, well, you'd better be prepared to wait a good long while.
Of course, in the age of quick takes and instant reaction, that's difficult to do. Fans expect a determination immediately.
So it's fair to say, for now, the Kansas City Royals got the best of the three-team, seven-player deal that began on Feb. 10 and was finally completed Friday, nearly four months later. Andrew Benintendi, the most established player in the deal, was slashing .291/.349/.402 for the Royals with five homers and 26 RBI. That translates to about 16 homers and 80 RBI for the season, with a .751 OPS -- decent numbers, but actually, a little off from his output in Boston, where he had a .789 OPS.
Benintendi is performing as a slightly above-average everyday player, with some power and good on-base ability. Not a difference-maker, not an All-Star.
Would the Red Sox be better off in 2021 with Benintendi in left, Alex Verdugo in center and Kiké Hernandez at second? Probably, in the short term. And, for 2021 at least, Benintendi is clearly a superior player to Franchy Cordero, the toolsy outfielder who grossly underperformed in the first seven weeks of the season before being optioned to Triple-A.
But it's important to remember that, with the completion of the deal, the Sox have five players total for Benintendi - righthanded starter Josh Winckowski, currently at Portland; outfielder Freddy Valdez; and righthanded pitching prospects Grant Gambrell and Luis de la Rosa.
(Here's where it gets a little complicated: Cordero, Winckowski, Gambrell and de la Rosa all came from the Royals. Valdez, meanwhile, came from the Mets, when the Sox took one of the other pieces from the Royals, outfielder Khalil Lee, and sent him to the Mets. Former Sox assistant GM Zack Scott, now the Mets GM, was infatuated with Lee, creating a separate deal. So the Sox actually got Valdez for Lee. Why they didn't just keep Lee - a raw outfielder -- instead of dealing him for a raw outfielder (Valdez) who is just 19, is a question for another day).
Winckowski, who impressed Red Sox personnel with his stuff in spring training, is off to a fine start for the SeaDogs, going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA after six starts to go with a 1.000 WHIP.
Meanwhile, Cordero has been terrorizing Triple-A pitching since being sent down, with four homers in his first seven games. That doesn't mean that, given the chance, he going to do the same in the big leagues. But it is a reminder that he's capable of much more than he showed in Boston earlier this year.
Cordero and Winckowski were already here. But what about the others announced Friday?
We canvassed some scouts and other talent evaluators for their thoughts.
Freddy Valdez, 19, OF
Executive: "Corner outfielder, with average speed and raw power. Still very raw, is a long ways away. Has a good, athletic body with a plus arm, though his release is a little long. Profiles as a right fielder if everything clicks.''
Scout: "He has a ways to go to getting his swing synched up. But the power is real. He probably has better contract skills than Cordero, but his swing is unconventional. He's got legit power, though, so that's something to work with.''
Scout: "Big and strong. He looks the part. A raw power guy, with a long swing. Physically, he's fully developed. He's country strong - 6-4, 230 pounds. He's got some athleticism. Arm is about average, and speed is somewhat below average, but playable. He's not a base-clogger or anything like that. It's really the bat they're counting on.''
RHP Grant Gambrell, 23, RHP
Scout: "Three-quarter delivery, with velo of 93-95 mph, occasionally touching 96 mph. Throws a two-seamer and four-seamer along with a slider 83-86 mph with a changeup 84-87 mph. Pretty coordinated kid who competes. Works slow. Hides the ball well enough. Strikes me as a possible back-end starter, or someone to give you length out of the bullpen.''
Scout: "A big guy with some versatility as someone who could either start or relieve. Gets his fastball up to 95 mph, with good slider and changeup. Delivery is nice and easy. Has a pretty good feel on the mound.''
RHP Luis de la Rosa, 18
Little is known about de la Rosa, who pitched in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, and, like most lower-minor prospects, missed all of last year due to the pandemic. As the youngest of the players acquired by the Sox, he's obviously got the longest road ahead of him.
Still, if the Sox can get two solid major league contributors out of this group, they will have done well in exchange for two years of Benintendi.
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With a third of the 2021 season complete, most of the offseason signings and trades authored by Chaim Bloom last winter can be judged at least a qualified success.
After a rough start, Garrett Richards has emerged as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. Hunter Renfroe has become the everyday right fielder, providing expected pop and unexpected brilliance as a defender. Adam Ottavino, like Richards and Renfroe, struggled mightily in the beginning, but has proven to be a reliable high-leverage option in the bullpen. We need to see more of Hirokazu Sawamura, but given the low salary cost, his short tenure has brought more positive than negative.
Most, however, is the important qualifier here.
Because when the focus turns to two other free agents -- Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez -- the grades are less glowing.
Over the winter, the Red Sox as an organization placed a high value on versatility. Bloom has seen how important it was while with Tampa Bay and manager Alex Cora, himself a role player in his playing days, recognized the importance of having a roster that included players who could be moved around.
It made sense, then, to pursue the likes of Hernandez and Gonzalez. Hernandez was seen as someone who could provide plus defense at both second and center field while Gonzalez can play all over the infield and help out in the corner outfield spots -- with the added attraction of being a switch-hitter.
It seemed like the smart play: at a time when roster management is more important than ever, injuries are at an all-time high and the increased emphasis on providing rest for everyday players, who could object to having two experienced and versatile options?
The problem, however, more than two months in, is that Hernandez and Gonzalez have become de facto everyday players. And while the defensive metrics are good for both, the offensive performance tells a far different story.
Hernandez, while hot in stretches, is currently fighting an 0-for-24 slump and by most measurements, has failed to accomplish the No. 1 goal of a leadoff hitter: getting on base, with an OBP of .310. Before Friday's game, the MLB average on-base percentage from the leadoff spot was .336.
Gonzalez has been even more inept at the plate, with .190/.281/.272 slash line. That reads more like what you'd expected from a National League pitcher. In 147 at-bats before Friday, Gonzalez had just 10 extra-base hits (nine doubles and a single homer).
This wasn't necessarily the plan, but a couple of factors interceded.
One, Bobby Dalbec struggled mightily -- far more than he did last September -- especially against right-handed pitching. That meant Cora needed another option, preferably left-handed, to play first and Gonzalez was the logical choice.
Second, while Hernandez was originally signed with the idea of mostly playing second base -- with some occasional outfield time thrown in for good measure -- the failure by Cordero in left meant that Alex Verdugo got shifted to left, creating a spot in center. That playing time went to Hernandez, who has started 30 of the first 56 games in center along with nine at second base, which doesn't seem like much until you consider that he also spent 11 days on the IL.
And now, the process seems to be repeating itself with Danny Santana. Signed to a minor-league deal late in the off-season, his spring was derailed by a foot infection and he needed more than a month at the alternate site and the start of the Triple-A season to get ready. He made an immediate impact with two homers and a triple in his first four games, but has since sputtered.
And yet, again because of the poor performances by Dalbec and Gonzalez, Santana is now getting regular playing time, too. Like Gonzalez, he's been more of a roving role player in his career, only twice in his first eight major league seasons did he accumulate more than 300 at-bats in a season.
Having versatile players who are willing and capable of playing all over the field is a positive. But expecting them to deliver as everyday contributors may have been too ambitious for the Red Sox.
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Bravo to Major League Baseball for recommending to owners this past week that the game step up its game regarding pitchers using foreign substances on baseballs.
Scouts, executives and players all agree that the excessive spin rate on breaking pitches and off-speed pitches has made hitting those offerings near impossible.
The huge jump in spin rate, it turns out, is not the result of just mechanical adjustments or other steps being taken by pitchers and their coaches. No, it far more the result of adding sticky substances -- hidden on the glove, brim of the cap, uniform sleeve -- to the ball.
For too long, teams have looked the other way in a sort of gentleman's agreement: We won't call out your guy if you don't call out ours. Sadly, this culture of looking the other way has taken hold.
There will now be significant penalties if pitchers are caught using these illegal substances. The important thing now is to empower the umpires to be vigilant in enforcing this. This can't be treated like the first-month War on Balks we once saw. Enforcement must continue for months and penalties must be handed out. After a couple of pitchers are sidelined enough to miss a couple of starts, the practice will be ended.
This alone won't cure all that ails offense. That may require an adjustment of the strike zone and the banning -- or limiting -- of infield shifts, along with other factors.
But it's a start. And it doesn't require long study or experimentation at the minor league level before implementation.