We previously dove into the big developments coming out of the Patriots' first OTA practice — mostly that Mac Jones looks like he's going to be a factor, sooner rather than later — but that left a lot of the roster to get to, and some bigger picture thoughts on the roster.
The season doesn't start for three more months, training camp does start for two months ... we have time, even though no one likes to take that time anymore, for whatever reasons.
Let's start with receiver today, considering all anyone can talk about is Julio Jones, like this is 2018 when he was coming off 116 catches and 1,600 yards ... and was still in his 20s. Three years and one broken down campaign later — and now he'll be 33 by the time the Super Bowl is played — everyone is still fixated on Jones.
I'll admit, watching practice this week — and as opposed to just about every other position, all the receivers were there outside of seventh-round pick Tre Nixon, who will have an uphill battle to make the team anyway — I came away thinking, "They are kind of thin at receiver ... I get why there's so much talk centered around Jones."
I mean, look at it:
Nelson Agholor
Kendrick Bourne
Jakobi Meyers
And then ... a whole bunch of who-the-hell-knows? — N'Keal Harry, Gunner Olszewski, Isaiah Zuber, Kristian Wilkerson and Nixon.
Not exactly murderer's row.
But then I kept thinking on it and I remembered/realized ...
How many receivers are they going to play this year, in any event?
The Patriots might have had, once upon a time, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the same offense, but they a) didn't win anything that way, and b) it's not who they've really been. At their heart, the Patriots aren't all that different than other teams when it comes to the passing game. They're mostly three-wide, a running back and a tight end when it comes down to nut-cutting time late in the game.
That's why investing in tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry was so significant. This was not trying to recapture a past that produced a failed Super Bowl trip and an AFC Championship Game loss in Gronkandez's two true seasons together. That's a misnomer. This was invention out of desperation — you can only make yourself better with so much money at receiver. Tight end is a different story.
Agholor's APY is $11 million. Bourne's is $5 million. Combined for both of them, it's still cheaper than what Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett or Chris Godwin got by themselves this offseason. Corey Davis, who the Patriots had no interest in, got $12.5 million from the Jets.
Now, the Patriots did pay Smith and Henry $12.5 million each. So that's a total of $41 million for four players, two receivers and two tight ends.
And now you expect or hope the Patriots are going to add $15 million on top of that, in the worst cap year ever?!
That would be $56 million for five players. In other words, it would be — and I know we're not talking cap numbers here, but humor me on real money — 30.7 percent of the cap. The Patriots have spent $209 million cash this year so far. That makes sense. The cap was going to be about $210 million if there was no Covid, so the Krafts wisely stuck to their budget and didn't cheap out. Jones at his current contract would get the team to $224 million — before you factor any restructures (Devin McCourty, Dont'a Hightower) that would have to be done to give the Patriots wiggle room for the rest of the season.
Even if we're talking real money, that $56 million is 25 percent of $224 million ... for 9.4 percent of the roster.
That does not sound like Belichick. It sounds like a team trying to win the offseason.
Never mind that trading something for Jones and then paying him, would go against just about every other thing they did this offseason to buy themselves out of the personnel crater they had exploded for themselves. Everyone else that the team spent money this offseason is young, just entering the prime of their careers and have yet to reach their ceiling. Jones is the antithesis of all of that, especially when it came to what he is right now on the field.
I thought Albert Breer did a great job plugging the gaps I had on my Jones intel, specifically why Jones had become last year, just a big slot (which would have some value to the Patriots post-Julian Edelman):
Jones suffered a Jones fracture preparing for the 2011 combine—a foot injury that he’s needed to manage, really, for the duration of his 10-year career. He’s also had knee issues. And the totality of it led to astute defensive coaches picking up on routes he could and couldn’t run when those problems were bothering him. With the foot, he’d have trouble on in-breaking routes. With the knee, he’d have trouble cutting off it. In both cases, patterns emerged where the Falcons were working scheme-wise around those injuries, moving Jones around a lot and not putting him in disadvantageous spots. So if you’re a team trading for him, it’s definitely not been an all-the-time thing, but you’d have the prospect of dealing with that. And then, there’s how all that might affect Jones’s ability to practice, an issue that could become bigger going to a new team where he has to learn a new system and mesh with a new quarterback.
Now, all of that said: When healthy, in flashes, he’s still looked like the same guy and has the straight-line speed to threaten down the field. “I think he’s still Julio in the sense that can change a game, whether it’s with his actual ability, or his perceived ability,” said one pro scouting director. “People still have to pay attention to him. But the last couple years, when he’s not healthy, you’re limited with what he can do within the offense, since there are certain routes he can’t run. That limits where they line him up, and some coordinators are smart enough to figure out what he can and can’t run.” Add his age into the equation, and while it’s easy to see where Jones is still really enticing as a player, it’s just as simple figuring why other teams would move with trepidation on this one, especially when looking at what he might be down the line.
Hunter HenryNow, going back to my original train of thought...
The Patriots have never spent this kind of money — and, really, it's receiver money — on two tight ends. Even when Gronkowski and Hernandez got their extensions in 2012, they were team-friendly deals. Smith and Henry (above) were not team-friendly deals. They are now paid No. 3 and 4 at the position ... and neither has played to that yet (for chuckles, Nos. 3 and 4 at receiver is $20 million per season).
The Patriots have a great offensive line. They have a very good stable of running backs. The passing offense is going to run through their $25 million tight ends — even mind the fact the Patriots also have Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene kicking around in case there are injuries.
If the Patriots are good this season, the receivers are going to be auxiliary players. You only need a couple of good ones, and they spent for those.
That offseason, when the Patriots paid Gronk and then Hernandez, do you remember what they had at receiver to start the '12 campaign? I found it for you over at OurLads.com:
That's it.
Really, just two receivers — Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. (I think we were done waiting for Taylor Price, 2010 draftee, to break out.)
The Patriots, fairly quickly, realized they needed a little bit more. Did they try to find another Randy Moss? Did they spend big money and some compensation to put themselves "over the top"?
No, the re-signed Deion Branch, who they had released during cutdowns on Sept. 18 and who would be released again in what would be his final season with the Patriots.
By the end of that '12 season, when Hernandez and Gronkowski dealt with injuries, the passing offense was basically Welker, one-hit-wonder Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez and Danny Woodhead (only players with over 21 receptions).
You could make the argument the Patriots should have invested more and maybe they learned their lesson, but the defense also had to be rebuilt (another similarity to this offseason).
With all that said, from the money to the philosophy with the tight ends to the Patriots' own history (never mind his age, money and durability), does a Jones trade really seem all that likely? (cue the trade for Jones)
I've been told the Patriots' interest is ... cautious. They're around. If the price drops in compensation and contract, then I think Jones as a big slot/layer of security at a thin spot, would be something they're interested in.
I think the Patriots are more inclined to see what they have at receiver and linebacker (if you asked me, I'd rather have LB Deion Jones from the Falcons over Julio Jones any day and twice on Sunday), and see what shakes out later and at what price. If there's a rash of injuries at receiver, do you want Jones or possibly someone with some durability closer to 25 than 35? Nevermind that a deal for Jones would likely be the last of the petty cash for this season and you never know what is going to happen injury-wise to, say, a Stephon Gilmore. The Patriots aren't going to leave themselves any wriggle room for a rare deal at the deadline?
I don't know ... seems abnormal for the Patriots, but this has been an abnormal couple of years around these parts.
Quinn Nordin
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. It's not like I was studying the kickers or anything, but probably one of the more surprising players of last week's practice was undrafted free agent Quinn Nordin out of Michigan (of course, the midwest Rutgers). I don't know what his stats were, but the ball just sounds different coming off his foot and every FG was booming through the outrights. Let's just say he's no Justin Rohrwasser. I don't think the porta-potties are in danger. And maybe he can keep the UDFA streak alive for the sake of everyone who loves to mention that annually.
2. The NFL and NFLPA agreed to a cap ceiling of $208.2 million for next season, a $25 million increase over next year. The Patriots have about $30 million in cap space with that number right now (15th in the league), but just 43 players under contract (21st in the league).
3. The league and union are still negotiating how the rosters and practice squad will work this year, but the league approved the return to three cutdowns:
- Aug. 17: Cutdown from 90 to 85.
- Aug. 24: Cutdown from 85 to 80.
- Aug. 31: Cutdown from 80 to 53.
Teams will have 12 days from final cut to the first Sunday of action.
4. We'll let Belichick have the final word on Adam Vinatieri's retirement: "I've been very fortunate as a head coach to have some outstanding kickers ... but Adam's really, in my mind, the best of all time. His consistency, his ability to handle clutch situations and make the biggest kicks and just the longevity of his career, I mean it was a quarter of a century and the consistency is just remarkable. It was such a pleasure to be with Adam even from his rookie year in '96 to then when I came back and it was obviously right in the prime of his career and made so many big kicks. We were in so many close games, during the time when he was here and I was the head coach, we were in so many close games that his ability to consistently put points on the board was incredibly valuable and obviously the first kick in a Snow Bowl to tie it, it has to go down as one of the great kicks of all time, if not the greatest. And then, two game winning kicks in Super Bowls just doesn't get any bigger than that but one thing with Adam, you never felt the pressure of the moment and he certainly didn't seem to, so it gave me and our team great confidence and again, I was very, very fortunate to have a player of his caliber in my time as a head coach. And then as I said, before and after we had some pretty good ones too, but Adam was really, really special. So, tribute to him and his great career and one that I'm sure will place him in the Hall of Fame in five years. That's where he should be."
5. One of the best team-made videos I've ever seen. A really, really good look behind the scenes leading up to and during the draft. The Colts do some good ones, but GM Chris Ballard comes off as a know-it-all (he is damn good). Here, owner David Tepper is as annoying and involved as you'd think he'd be, but new GM Scott Fitterer comes off very impressive, as does Matt Rhule.