This week, the 2021 MLB season will pass three significant milestones: the Memorial Day Weekend, the turning of the calendar to June and the passing of the one-third mark on the regular-season schedule.
In other words, we're about to move past the "it's still early" portion of the season. Sure, better than a hundred games remain and a lot can still happen, but it's safe to take a look at the standings and start to make some judgments.
The Red Sox are guaranteed nothing. But the more days that come off the calendar, the less fluky they appear. Whether that translates into a return to the postseason for them for the first time since they won the World Series in 2018 is uncertain. But this much seems rather obvious: barring some tsunami of injuries or otherwise completely unexpected developments, they'll be in contention well into the summer.
What that also means is the Red Sox have to have one eye on July 30, this year's non-waiver trade deadline. (It arrives a day early this year because July 31 falls on a Saturday, when teams are more likely to play day games and MLB didn't want the prospect of players being pulled mid-game as the 4 p.m. deadline arrives).
For now, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is probably more attuned to the amateur draft set for July 11. The Red Sox own the No. 4 pick in that draft and stand a chance to land a foundational player with their highest pick since the 1960s. But a little more than two weeks after that comes the deadline.
Given the nature of the standings, it's not hyperbolic to suggest two factors could well determine the finish of the 2021 AL East standings -- health and the trade deadline. The Red Sox can do little about the former, but a lot about the latter.
In all likelihood, the Red Sox performance to date has been a pleasant surprise for Bloom, general manager Brian O'Halloran and the rest of the Red Sox Baseball Operations Staff. While they wouldn't have said so publicly, the group probably anticipated an improved product on the field and likely even a winning season. But the guess here is that few -- if any -- members of the Baseball Ops staff projected the team to be playing around .600 ball as the start of June neared.
The Sox' unexpectedly excellent start, then, will serve to move up the timetable of expectations for the franchise. At the start of the year, the prospect of being passive sellers was perhaps a more likely scenario for the Sox. It would have been easy to foresee the team playing in and around .500 at the All-Star break, forcing the Sox to debate whether it was prudent to begin selling off some veteran assets on short-term deals (Hunter Renfroe, Marwin Gonzalez, Adam Ottavino, Kevin Plawecki) to teams looking to improve for the stretch run.
Those sorts of deals would have offered the opportunity to deepen the Red Sox' prospect inventory, as happened last year when the Sox auctioned off Mitch Moreland, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman and Kevin Pillar for a return of five players. In some ways, that would have represented a win-win situation for Bloom and Co.: a step forward on the field, a winning season, and the added bonus of deepening the minor league system without disrupting the major league core.
Now, however, such a plan seems unlikely. The team's unexpectedly strong play will force the Red Sox into another kind of thinking: how much of the future should be sacrificed to bolster the present.
How Bloom navigates that issue will determine a lot about the franchise's direction over the next few seasons.
Barring a doomsday collapse, the notion of standing pat -- neither selling nor buying at the deadline -- would appear to be off the table. To reward manager Alex Cora, the coaching staff and the players for being competitive over the first half of the season, some additions would be necessary. An unwillingness to improve the roster would be met with massive disappointment in the clubhouse -- to say nothing of the fan base.
That much seems obvious.
But how far will Bloom go to make the Red Sox better for the final two months of the 2021 season and October? That could be the most fascinating question to be asked over the second half of the season.
We know that, more than anything, Bloom values "sustainability'' -- the chance to be able to contend for a pennant, year after year. It's the model undertaken by his mentor, Andrew Friedman with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who, since Friedman's arrival after the 2014 season, have won their division six straight times, won three pennants and a world championship while managing to maintain a fertile, top-ranked farm system.
That's Bloom's vision, too: a competitive team, a Top 5 payroll and a steady flow of young (and inexpensive) prospects who can be used to either fill roster needs or be utilized to obtain established help.
As invigorating as the Sox' start has been, Bloom will want to be careful not to upset the master plan by sacrificing too much of the Sox' prospect base to improve for merely one run at a title.
It may be folly to anticipate what the Red Sox will be in search of two months from now. For one thing, we have no idea of knowing how injuries could impact the roster between now and then. Another 'X' factor for the Red Sox: the status of Chris Sale. If Sale has already returned by the deadline, or is on the verge of returning to the Red Sox' staff, that could be an upgrade all by itself -- at no player cost whatsoever to the Red Sox.
In the same vein, by July, the Red Sox will likely be far more open to the notion of promoting Jarren Duran to the major league roster and Duran's blend of power and speed could be an invigorating addition to the club late in the summer, just as the schedule begins to take its toll on the everyday players.
Because the Red Sox put such an emphasis on versatility and depth this offseason with the signings of Gonzalez, Danny Santana and Kike Hernandez, they probably won't be in that market -- a crowded one, historically speaking. The Sox already have three players who can play both the infield and outfield, and two are switch-hitters? How much utility does one roster need?
From here, it would seem the one area of need the Sox could have would be a left-handed hitting first baseman to platoon with Bobby Dalbec. Currently, Gonzalez and Santana have filled that void, but the former isn't much of an offensive threat -- let alone one with power -- and it might be best to have them serve as depth options in the outfield or other infield positions.
That leaves -- surprise, surprise! -- pitching.
Like almost every other season, most contenders will be looking to bolster their bullpen, and the Red Sox can surely be expected to be among them. Closer Matt Barnes, and now that he's figured out some early-season control issues, Ottavino, provide both experience and dependability in the eighth and ninth innings.
But the rest of the Red Sox relief staff is murky. Hirokazu Sawamura remains an unknown in the big picture, and Darwinzon Hernandez, though dominant in spots, hasn't yet demonstrated he's fully trustworthy.
Maybe, in the coming weeks, the return of Ryan Brasier or Workman could fill that seventh-inning spot. But it's more likely the Sox seek a swing-and-miss power arm on the trade market to complete their late-inning high-leverage crew.
And what of the rotation? This is the area that is least projectable, given the odds of injuries or under-performance thinning the starting staff. The Red Sox can't ignore the checkered injury histories of Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Richards, nor the relatively unproven Nick Pivetta. By July, Pivetta will presumably have topped the 100-inning mark for the first time since 2018 -- and only the third time in his career.
Making matters more uncertain for the Red Sox is the fact the two top depth starter options in the organization -- Tanner Houck and Connor Seabold -- are currently sidelined with what are thought to be minor arm woes. But those setbacks in April and May bear careful monitoring over the course of the season.
Which leads us to, potentially, the most fascinating scenario of all: Max Scherzer.
For now, the Washington Nationals insist that, no matter where they sit at the deadline, Scherzer, eligible for free agency this fall, won't be auctioned off. The team points to Scherzer's standing in club history, its desire to re-sign him this offseason, and, not incidentally, the franchise's own recent history in which it overcame a poor first two months in 2019 to win its first championship.
But, of course, the Nationals have to say that now. Forecasting a trade involving one of the most important and revered players in club history months ahead of time would be poor form. But if the Nationals continue to sputter, how could they not at least listen on Scherzer? It's not as if dealing him in July would preclude them from re-signing him in December. (See: Chapman, Aroldis).
And, then, well, wouldn't the Red Sox have some thinking to do?
Even with the recent trend of teams being unwilling to sacrifice their top prospects for short-term rentals, the Nats would have to aim high for any return.
There'd be no shortage of interested teams, including the Yankees, who haven't won it all in a dozen years. Or the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres and Chicago White Sox -- all of whom could go from serious contenders to prohibitive favorites with the addition of someone like Scherzer.
This could mean the Nats would inquire about the likes of Duran or Triston Casas or Jeter Downs as part of any package for Scherzer. And just as the Red Sox would initially balk at that asking price, how tempted, ultimately, would they be? Imagine adding Scherzer to a rotation that is already flourishing with Sale, Richards, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Eduardo Rodriguez?
It may well be that, by late July, Bloom will have a better sense of where the Red Sox stand among the other contenders. If the Sox are perceived to be flawed with only a puncher's chance of winning it all, it will be far easier to pass a go-for-it deal. If, on the other hand, the Red Sox see an opening to win it all, Bloom may have a big call on his hands -- one, in all likelihood, that he didn't expect to face so soon.
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On Tuesday night at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, umpire Joe West worked his 5,376th game, breaking a record for umpiring longevity that had stood for 80 years.
Naturally, West threw himself a big celebration, inviting everyone from boyhood friends, fellow umpires now retired, the Oak Ridge Boys, the San Diego Chicken, former quarterback Jim McMahan and proof that even West does have indeed have some endearing qualities, the fabulous Emmylou Harris.
(West's affinity for country music is well-documented, as he once recorded an album under the moniker "Cowboy Joe West'').
When the game became official after the fifth inning and the White Sox posted a tribute to his record-setting night on the scoreboard, most of the fans in attendance booed lustily.
This is West's final year in the game. It may surprise you to learn that among managers and players, West has the earned reputation of being a very good balls-and-strikes umpire, with a consistent strike zone.
What most objected to, over the years, was his insistence on calling attention to himself by over-involving himself in games. It was that shameless self-promotion that most disliked about him. It's too bad that West couldn't let his work stand as his principal calling card. It's said that the best umpires go unnoticed, but such a fate was unthinkable for West, for whom anonymity was unthinkable.
Occasionally, he got called out for his overzealous behavior. When Terry Francona managed the Red Sox, West went overboard in a game and attempted to embarrass Francona in the heat of an argument. An MLB official who learned of the exchange was outraged by West's behavior and personally ordered West to apologize to Francona the next day in the parking lot adjacent to the home clubhouse outside Fenway.
West, hat literally in hand, did so, which Francona graciously accepted -- but Francona, never one to miss an opportunity to supply a zinger or two, made sure to give West some good-natured off-field grief in return.