As the 2021 season reaches the one-quarter mark -- most teams will have played at least 40 games by the end of the weekend -- it's become pretty apparent most divisions will be tightly contested.
The biggest lead in any division as play began Saturday belonged to the St. Louis Cardinals, who led the second-place Milwaukee Brewers by three games. The rest of the division leaders -- including the Red Sox -- had leads of no more than two full games.
And while 40 or so games is too soon to jump too many conclusions, this much would seem to be evident: there's parity throughout the game.
Even the defending-champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who some had forecast had the talent to win well over 100 games, find themselves in third place in their own division, and while the fact that the San Diego Padres are ahead of the Dodgers registers as absolutely no surprise, the fact that both teams are behind the San Francisco Giants was predicted by exactly no one.
Closer to home, the Red Sox have a winning percentage but that's bought them no separation in the East. Three teams -- the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays -- are close on their heels, with even fourth-placed Toronto just three games behind. And while it's dangerous to make many generalizations with almost 120 games remaining, this much seems rather obvious: the division is likely to stay congested the rest of the way.
For now, the AL East is the only division of MLB's six to boast four teams with winning records.
"This division,'' predicts Alex Cora, "is going to be fun for the fans throughout the season."
That isn't to suggest that the four teams will similarly be bunched in September. But it seems obvious that no one is running off with anything.
"I would expect that division will be pretty competitive most of the way,'' said one front office person from outside the A.L. East. "You have a handful of pretty good teams, but no great ones. Every club has its flaws.''
The Red Sox have played only 15 games within the division and of those, nine have come against Baltimore. They've yet to face Toronto yet -- a three-game series awaits Tuesday, in the Jays home-away-from-home-away-from-home in Dunedin, Fla. -- and only 18 of their first 57 games will be against divisional opponents. In a scheduling quirk, the Sox won't play the Yankees until June.4.
In the meantime, some thoughts about the division:
* Bullpens are the great equalizer. Even with fewer teams relying on the opener concept this season and teams generally relying on more conventional starters, bullpens can play an outsized role in determining a team's success. In some cases, a good bullpen can help cover a multitude of sins.
"Whoever we've played, from Day 1 until now, they have solid bullpens,'' said Cora. "If the starters give you five and you're in the game (when you go to the bullpen), it's going to be a close one. Look at the Giants (relievers) - they mix-and-match with the best of them and you see the results.''
Indeed, more times than not, it seems games are coming down to the final inning or two with the trailing team within striking distance. (Almost half - 18 of 40 -- of the Sox games have been decided by a one or two runs). And good bullpens, with arms capable of throwing 96-98 mph on a regular basis, can be difference-makers.
* Injuries are likely to play a bigger role than usual.
Having suitable depth is always a key to surviving the grind of a six-month season, and in the COVID-era, that's perhaps more true than ever before. Teams not only have to deal with the usual array of baseball injuries, but also, COVID outbreaks. The San Diego Padres have all the talent in the world, but one day earlier this week, they lost three regulars to the virus: Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer.
Even teams nearly fully vaccinated aren't completely secure, as the Yankees demonstrated recently.
Then there's the prospect of players -- pitchers especially -- hitting a wall during the summer when the innings and games played begin to take their toll. There's no way to accurately predict how many pitchers will hit the wall as a result of going from a 60-game schedule to a full-length 162-game slate, but most teams are bracing for some inevitable breakdowns. Depth will be essential.
To date, the Red Sox have been luckier than most so far, with no major in-season injuries (both Kike Hernandez and Christian Arroyo are currently sidelined, with the former due back Tuesday and the latter by next weekend), but no one expects that to last an entire season.
* If you're looking for a key stretch for the Red Sox, start after the All-Star break.
Beginning with a four-game series with the Yankees in New York, the Sox will play either the Yanks, Rays and Jays 26 times over a span of 32 games.
When that run is over, we'll know a lot more about where the teams stand in relation to one another. Or maybe, given the parity, they'll simply beat each other up and no one will be able to achieve much separation in the standings.
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The MLB draft is still almost two months away, but college and high school regular seasons winding down, the first round is coming into a bit clearer focus.
It's now becoming obvious that the Red Sox, picking at No. 4, their highest draft position in better than 55 years, will likely have a chance to select either of the Vanderbilt aces: Kuman Rocker or Jack Leiter.
Each has experienced some drop-off in performance in recent weeks, with Leiter, in particular, suffering from a heavy workload. Both pitchers have seen their velocity dip in recent outings, though they remain largely effective.
While Rocker and Leiter drop some on the Big Board, others have been elevated. Catcher Henry Davis (University of Louisville) is vaulting to the top of a lot of draft boards.
Others projected to go in the Top 10 are high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar (Dallas), Marcello Mayer (Chula Vista, Calif.), Brady House (Georgia), Kahlil Watson (North Carolina) and college shortstop Matt McLain (UCLA).
In other words, there's a premium on middle-of-the-field players (catchers, shortstops), and if you move down into the bottom half of the Top 10, there's some choice outfielders capable of playing center field, too, including Boston College product Sal Frelick.
Teams want impact players athletic enough to play in the middle of the diamond.
A lot of Red Sox fans had hoped that the team would luck out and have one of the two Vandy aces drop to No. 4. and now, that seems all but guaranteed. Given that potential top-of-the-rotation starters are seldom available to them when they select, this is an opportunity to nab one. Rotation aces are the most valuable commodity in the game, and as the Red Sox have found in the last decade, if you don't draft and develop your own, you have to pay a king's random in talent (Chris Sale) or free agent dollars (David Price) to get one.
But it's worth wondering as a number of experts have both Rocker and Leiter slide down some whether the Red Sox aren't of the same thinking and could be zeroing in on either a catcher, shortstop or outfielder.
This isn't about immediate help, of course. Even the most polished college prospects are, at minimum, a year or two away. Like any other draft, it's about long-term value.
Still, for an organization that isn't planning on having a Top 10 pick again anytime soon, the temptation to choose from among two sturdy-bodied pitchers who could lead a rotation with power arms may be overwhelming.
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The terrific start being enjoyed by Matt Barnes could create an interesting dynamic for the Red Sox front office.
Barnes is 9-for-9 in save opportunities, but even that doesn't begin to suggest the dominance he's exhibited since the start of the season. Barnes has had 12 perfect appearances of at least an inning, while not other A.L. pitcher has more than seven. Over his last eight outings, he's retired 23-of-24 batters. and in his nine save opportunities, he's yet to allow a single run and held opponents to an .034 batting average (1-for-29) with 16 strikeouts and just one walk.
Through the first 41 games of the season, Barnes seems like a new pitcher. He's attacking hitters, working faster, featuring his fastball more and is pitching with more confidence than ever before.
Over the winter, there were talks between the Red Sox and Barnes on a contract extension since Barnes is eligible for free agency after the current season. The talks never progressed far, however, and were tabled. Now, a quarter of the way through the season, it would seem that Barnes' leverage has only increased. If he keeps up this level of performance -- or anything remotely close -- he'll go into the offseason as the most in-demand pitcher on the free-agent market.
Others on the market will include Kenley Jensen, Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates -- all of whom have longer track records in the closing role, but with significant physical questions attached. Rosenthal underwent thoracic outlet surgery last month and is gone for the year, as is Yates, who had Tommy John surgery in March. As for Jansen, he's been the Dodgers closer for the past decade, but his workload could scare off teams.
On the other hand, Barnes, for as dominant as he's been, hasn't handled the job for long and has just 24 saves to his credit. It may be that Barnes is something of a late bloomer, but that could be held against him in free agency. At a position in which performance is notoriously fickle, his thin resume could be an issue.