Be it injuries or deadline acquisitions, Bruce Cassidy and the Bruins haven’t had a whole lot of runway available to them when it comes to finding the best possible combinations up front and on the blue line ahead of another promising Cup run.
Granted, an ideal lineup might be a bit of a misnomer, as even the most stout NHL rosters are often tweaked and re-shuffled over the course of a seven-game series.
But with Boston set to go toe-to-toe with a heavy, physical foe in the Capitals starting on Saturday night, Cassidy might have to reshuffle some segments of his lineup in order to contend with the punishing onslaught that awaits in the form of players like Tom Wilson, Garnet Hathaway … and Zdeno Chara.
Let’s take a stab at what the Bruins could roll out for Game 1:
First Line
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - David Pastrnak
While you could make the case that Pastrnak’s offseason hip surgery has hindered him a bit this season when it comes to his finishing ability (he *only* finished with 20 goals and 48 points in 48 games), the B’s top line has been as effective as ever — with Bergeron’s continued two-way excellence and Marchand’s steady ascension as perhaps the top LW in the game giving Boston a dominant buzzsaw at the top of its lineup.
Boston’s preference in this series will likely involve Bergeron and Co. getting head-to-head matchups against the Caps’ top line of Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson and Evgeny Kuznetsov.
It’s a tough ask to defend a trio like that over the course of an extended series, but through seven games this season, Boston has outscored Washington by a convincing 6-0 margin when Bergeron and Ovechkin have been out on the ice together during 27:33 of 5v5 ice time.
Both Boston and Washington deploy pretty imposing top-six units, but if the Bergeron line can tilt the ice so heavily in the B’s favor when matched up against either Kuznetsov or Nicklas Backstrom’s line, the Caps are going to be in biiiiig trouble at 5v5 play.
Second Line
Taylor Hall - David Krejci - Craig Smith
Remember the good ol’ days in which this line was destined to undergo approximately 34 different switcheroos as Cassidy and Co. ran through a carousel of wingers to Krejci’s right?
At long last, the Bruins have a functioning second line following the additions of the Craig Smith in free agency and Taylor Hall via trade/fleecing with Buffalo — but that might be underselling things a little bit.
Because, let’s be frank here. Based on what we’ve seen for a month-plus now, Boston has a 1A/1B line now in place with this trio — and the case could be made that Krejci and his crew have been even more effective than the “Perfection” line over the last few weeks.
“Let's face it, they've probably outscored the Bergeron line, which is not easy to do,” Cassidy said of the Hall-Krejci-Smith line. “So now you got a problem. The other team's got to pick their poison, so to speak.”
Indeed, if the Caps try to negate the Bergeron line by tossing their fourth line up against them, it doesn’t alleviate the issue of just how they’re going to stop a second line that has outscored opponents, 13-1, during their 180:19 of 5v5 ice time together.
Since Taylor Hall trade:
— Matt Larkin (@THNMattLarkin) May 12, 2021
- Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak have 36.2% of Boston's goals
- Hall-Krejci-Smith have 32.8% of Boston's goals
This is the balance Boston desperately needed. Gonna be a VERY tough out in playoffs…
Barring anything catastrophic, expect these top-two lines to remain locked in for however long this playoff run lasts.
Third Line
Nick Ritchie - Sean Kuraly - Charlie Coyle
Boston’s top-six unit might be set in stone, but the ideal personnel for the B’s bottom-six grouping is up for some interpretation. While there was a fair share of skepticism from yours truly on how a third line that had Coyle shifted to the wing and Kuraly bumped up from the fourth line would fare — I’ve had to eat crow quite a bit over the last few weeks, because the success of this revamped third line has been one of the club’s biggest surprises down the stretch here.
While Coyle missed the final three games of the regular season due to injury, Cassidy expects the Weymouth native to be cleared for Saturday’s Game 1 matchup. And although Cassidy has usually deployed his heavier, checking forwards on his fourth line during his tenure as B’s bench boss, crafting a third line with a similar, heavy identity could pay dividends come the postseason.
With opposing clubs already having their hands full with both the Bergeron and Krejci lines, a Ritchie-Kuraly-Coyle line should be able to land punches against easier matchups, with that unit’s blend of speed and size giving Cassidy a grouping that can throw their weight around, extend O-zone possessions and, most importantly, pot some pucks from Grade-A ice.
They haven’t earned as much of an extended look as, say, the Krejci line, but both the underlying metrics and the basic eye test point to this third line being a thorn in the side of many opponents over the next few months — with Boston holding a 4-1 edge in goals scored during their 45:19 of 5v5 ice time together.
“I like the way they play,” Cassidy said of his third line. “I liked the way they played in terms of offensive puck possession, heavier when they were being physical. So they were a handful. So that's good to know. Charlie's not gonna lose his game by missing a few (games). I would assume that.
“I don't want to say (they) pick right up where they left off, but they certainly are capable of going right back together and giving us that same type of game. Charlie's injury is not going to prevent him from doing that. At least I don't think it will. So we should still have that should we want to go that route.”
Fourth Line
Jake DeBrusk - Curtis Lazar - Chris Wagner
If there’s one thing that we can confidently pencil in when it comes to this fourth line, it’s that Lazar will be the middle.
After that, things can change in a hurry — especially against a team like the Caps.
Ultimately, Cassidy has both the depth and flexibility to really augment his fourth line to whatever matchup he’s looking to exploit — especially given that the Ritchie-Kuraly-Coyle line is likely going to take the mantle as the more physical, forechecking unit.
Some fans might be clamoring for a bit more of a physical grouping here with someone like Trent Frederic, but, at least to open this series, it sure seems like DeBrusk will get the first look — with Cassidy noting Tuesday night that the once-slumping winger has “found his game again a little bit” down the stretch.
The right side also becomes a bit of a toss-up between Wagner and perhaps a speedier option in Karson Kuhlman. While Kuhlman could certainly draw in at times against perhaps a more skilled foe, Wagner gives the Bruins some thump, PK prowess and experience against the Caps.
Don’t be surprised if this line goes through quite a few changes over the span of this postseason. A potential return for Ondrej Kase later during this run could see Cassidy try to add more scoring punch to the mix, while DeBrusk could also be moved over to right wing and Frederic slotted in over at LW if Boston truly does value what Frederic brings to a series like this, especially whenever Wilson is out on the ice.
DEFENSE
Top Pair
Matt Grzelcyk - Charlie McAvoy
Not only does Mike Reilly’s fit next to Brandon Carlo give Boston an effective second pairing, it also opens the door for Boston to keep this dominant top defensive unit of McAvoy and Grzelcyk intact moving forward.
The numbers speak for themselves when it comes to the two BU products. Among the 64 NHL D pairs that have logged at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time together, Grzelcyk-McAvoy rank first in goals-for percentage — with Boston holding a 20-7 edge in goals scored during their 339:04 of ice time together.
They also pace that same pool of blueliners in terms of shot share (Boston leads in shot attempts, 384-218, during their on-ice reps), shots for percentage (Boston leads in shots on goal, 232-107) and scoring chances (179 chances for, 98 chances against).
They may not be the most imposing D pair, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a duo that’s more adept at pushing the puck through neutral ice and supporting a forward trio (likely either the Bergeron/Krejci line) from the blue line.
So long as they can remain healthy, expect a big postseason from these two.
Second Pair
Mike Reilly - Brandon Carlo
As noted above, the only reason why Boston can keep the Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing intact without putting all of their eggs in one basket is because Reilly has been able to excel on this pairing next to Carlo.
Despite a shaky showing against the Rangers last Saturday, the B’s have been able to tilt ice decisively in their favor when Reilly-Carlo have been deployed — with Boston holding a 33-11 edge in scoring chances during their 58:34 of 5v5 ice time together.
Granted, some of that has been a byproduct of Boston sheltering them with heavy O-zone reps (75.00 offensive zone faceoff percentage), but there’s a lot to like about a grouping that can combine both puck-moving prowess in Reilly and a shutdown option in Carlo.
Third Pair
Jeremy Lauzon - Kevan Miller
Bruins fans concerned about a lack of thump on Boston’s D corps can find some solace in this third pairing. Granted, the underlying metrics may not be all that kind to this duo (Boston has been outscored, 5-0, in their 77 minutes of 5v5 ice time), so if this duo continues to serve as a weak link, we might have a situation in which Lauzon does need to be sheltered a bit with McAvoy. Ideally, Boston won’t have to augment its lineup just to keep that third pairing afloat, but it is worth noting.
GOALTENDERS
Tuukka Rask
Jeremy Swayman
No surprise in regards to the B’s No. 1 man in net, while Swayman deservedly secured the backup spot after an absurd five weeks up in the NHL ranks. Ideally, Boston won’t need to turn to Swayman in the midst of this Cup run, but if Rask falters or he re-aggravates a lingering upper-body injury, Boston does have one intriguing contingency plan in the form of the 22-year-old rookie from Alaska.