With Brandon Carlo close to return, what will be Bruins' ideal D pairings come playoffs?

The good news? After logging just four periods of hockey since March 5, Brandon Carlo is on the cusp of returning to the B's lineup — serving as the final piece of the puzzle to a banged-up Boston blue line that has utilized 13 different skaters over the span of this compressed 2021 schedule.

The bad news? Boston only has a little over a week of regular-season runway left to see where those pieces best fit on its D corps before diving into the gauntlet of playoff hockey.

And even when Carlo is given the green light to return (likely ahead of Tuesday's matchup against the Devils), there's no guarantee that Boston will be able to run with its expected six starters on defense (Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk, Carlo, Mike Reilly, Jeremy Lauzon, Kevan Miller) during all of these last couple of regular-season tuneups. After all, Miller is expected to sit out on Tuesday's back-to-back slate, while Reilly is dealing with a nagging injury of his own that will keep him out of Monday's matchup in Newark.

As such, some of Bruce Cassidy's decision-making when it comes to finding the best fit for each of his three D pairs will have to revolve around prior eye tests from earlier this year — coupled with some projections on how a newcomer like Reilly might fare with a guy who's been on the shelf for an extended stretch like Carlo.

"Some nights we're not able to probably look at the pairs we want to because of the health," Cassidy noted on Monday. "That's okay — as long as they're all healthy on Game 1 of the playoffs, then we're in good shape. I think we've seen enough of different pairs that we'll be okay. I guess the one guy that hasn't played with McAvoy is Reilly, so that's probably something you wouldn't see. But at the end of the day we're comfortable with both Grizz or Lauzy up there. The rest of the pairs have all had some level of time together with the exception of Brandon with Reilly."

On paper — especially when glancing at the underlying numbers — it'd be tempting to just slot Carlo in at the second-pairing spot currently occupied by Connor Clifton, push Lauzon down with Miller as part of a physical third pairing and keep a dominant first pair of Grzelcyk and McAvoy intact. After all, both BU products have routinely spent most of their shifts dissecting the opposition in the O-zone, with Boston holding a 14-6 edge in goals scored and a 184-93 advantage in shots on goal in that pair's 284:12 of 5v5 ice time together.

But it may not be that cut-and-dry for Cassidy — especially when it comes to finding the proper balance with so many puck-movers present on the roster.



Over the last few days, Cassidy has hinted at his plans for the club's D corps once all of the key cogs are back in the fold — noting that each of the B's three pairings could feature both a puck mover and more of a stay-at-home option, rather than opt to put all of their eggs in one basket with a 5v5 buzzsaw in Grzelcyk-McAvoy.

"(Carlo) goes with Grizz or Reilly, probably, in the long run," Cassidy said. "We could get back to the three pairs that have a defender and a puck mover, so to speak. Lauzon and McAvoy, they started out well together there. Could be Grizz and Carlo, could be Grizz and Miller - Grizz broke into the league with Miller - and then it would be Reilly and Carlo or Miller, right?

"If those are our top-six, we feel if we do it that way, we have a natural puck-mover in each group and more of a defender. If Grizz stays with McAvoy, then it's Reilly and Carlo [or] Reilly and Miller. We're comfortable with both because, really, Reilly wouldn't have had a long partnership with either one. So it's more or less, let's get up to speed and see where it goes. And then who does Lauzy best fit with, right? So there's a little bit of that that goes into it. Sometimes that just happens organically and other times it's matchup oriented as you get closer to the playoffs — what does the opposition look like? What do you need, and you go from there. So I think you could see any number of different pairs right through the end of the year. And then once we get into the playoffs, we'll see what, like I said, the best fit."

With that thinking, Cassidy could opt for a lineup such as this:

Lauzon-McAvoy
Reilly*-Carlo
Grzelcyk*-Miller

*You could flip Reilly and Grzelcyk on either of these pairs

Now, Lauzon and McAvoy haven't exactly been dynamite this season, because even if Boston has held the edge in metrics such as shot attempts, scoring chances and shots on goal (152-105) when that duo has been out on the ice together, Boston has only outscored the competition, 14-12 during that stretch. But at this point, sticking Lauzon next to your top D-man in McAvoy might be your best bet at finding balance across the rest of your lineup.

Even though a third pairing of Lauzon-Miller would make life miserable for most opponents, both hard-nosed defenders haven't fared very well as a pairing — with opponents outscoring Boston, 3-0, during their brief 35:33 of ice time together. By slotting a puck-mover next to Miller on the third D pair, you'd likely minimize the amount of time that Boston spends chasing the puck in their own end — with either Grzelcyk or Reilly complimenting Miller by breaking the puck out and getting the club moving in the other direction.

As far as Carlo goes, Boston can't go wrong with either Reilly/Grzelcyk as his partner, given that the stay-at-home skater has regularly thrived when next to more of a fleet-footed partner, such as Torey Krug in years past.

Earlier this season, a Grzelcyk-Carlo pairing was pretty impressive as a shutdown pairing, with Boston leading in scoring chances (39-27) and goals scored (5-3) during their time out on the ice — despite having just 44.68% of their faceoffs set in the offensive zone. But Reilly is no slouch either, despite having not played a single shift with Carlo this season. While Reilly's offensive gifts have been on full display since arriving from Ottawa last month, his transition play has also limited how many chances opponents have had at landing punches against the B's when he's been out on the ice, with a second pairing of Reilly-Clifton outscoring opponents at an 8-1 clip together.

So whichever way you swing it, Carlo should be in good hands with either Reilly or Grzelcyk as his second-pairing partner — with the odd man out between those two serving as a very, very effective third-pairing puck mover next to Miller. And of course, if things get desperate late in a game and Boston is in need of some instant offense, Cassidy can certainly go all in and reunite that Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing for some O-zone reps with either the Bergeron or Krejci lines (man, doesn't it feel great to finally have a 1A/1B top-six these days?). 

In a perfect situation, Boston would have had at least a few more weeks to mix-and-match its defense and ease guys like Carlo back into the fold. Such isn't the reality these days, unfortunately. But what this reshuffled D corps might lack in terms of reps, it should make up for in balance — and potential, so long as all these pieces fall into place.