Tracking the home stretch: How the Eastern Conference might shake out

The Boston Celtics woke up in sixth place, thanks to the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks both winning games last night. Boston is now one game out of fourth and one game out of the play-in tournament.

Things are tight. Three games separate the fourth and eighth seed. Two separate four and seven.  The Hawks and Knicks play tonight, with the winner taking sole possession of the fourth seed. Boston, Miami, and Charlotte all have a shot at home court.

Each team in the mix has between 13 and 15 games left to play. Here's a look at how things shake out.

Boston Celtics: Phoenix, @Brooklyn*, @Charlotte, Oklahoma City, Charlotte*, San Antonio, Portland, @Orlando, @Chicago, Miami, Miami, @Cleveland*,  @Minnesota, @New York*

Atlanta Hawks: @New York, Miami, Milwaukee, @Detroit*, Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Chicago*,  Portland, Phoenix, @Indiana*, Washington, Washington, Orlando*, Houston

New York Knicks: Atlanta, Toronto, Phoenix, Chicago, @Houston, @Memphis*, @Denver, @Phoenix, @LA Clippers, @LA Lakers, San Antonio, Charlotte,  Boston

Miami Heat: @San Antonio, @Atlanta, Chicago, Chicago, San Antonio, @Cleveland, @Charlotte*, Dallas, Minnesota, @Boston, @Boston, Philadelphia, @Milwaukee, @Detroit*

Charlotte Hornets: @Chicago, Cleveland*, Boston, Milwaukee, @Boston*, Detroit, Miami*, @Detroit, Chicago, Orlando*, New Orleans, Denver, LA Clippers, @New York, @Washington*

*=back to back

According to Tankathon, New York has the toughest remaining schedule, followed by Atlanta, Miami and Boston (tied), and Charlotte.

The Knicks do, in fact, literally have a very tough road ahead of them with that six-game trip still on their schedule. Houston should be a win but going to Memphis on the back-to-back and then heading into a Nuggets, Suns, Clippers, Lakers buzzsaw could drop them in the standings. Anthony Davis and LeBron James should be back by that Lakers game, which makes things worse for them.

Atlanta could be in for a slide here too. Not only are New York and Miami tough games, the Milwaukee, @Detroit, Philadelphia twice and Chicago stretch is five games in seven nights. That's a swoon waiting to happen. Their saving grace is a row of potential cupcakes to end the season, but those teams love to be spoilers in those situations, so that's not a given either.

Miami has a chance to make some noise, especially if they can knock off Atlanta on Friday.  Their two-game series against Chicago at home and a quick two-game trip to Cleveland and Charlotte are chances for wins. That two-game set with the Celtics on May 9 and 11 in Boston could be the key to their seeding.

Charlotte has the easiest schedule but they're still without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. Ball could be coming back soon and Hayward could come back for the final couple of weeks, but they need to go on a big run to make any noise. They basically have to beat Chicago and Cleveland and take two games from that Boston/Milwaukee/@Boston stretch to jump back into the middle of the standings and out of the play-in tournament.

Boston still has the best chance at the fourth seed. Most importantly, Boston has to beat the bad teams and beat their direct competition. So losing to Phoenix and Brooklyn wouldn't be killers considering what Atlanta and New York have ahead of them. Winning one or both of these back-to-back games against the Suns and Nets would be a huge step. It obviously won't be easy, but the Celtics do get up for good teams and the Nets are still without James Harden and Kevin Durant. Durant's absence is just a thigh contusion, so he might be back.

But the @Charlotte/Oklahoma City/Charlotte stretch needs to be 3-0 if the Celtics are going to grab that fourth seed. They need to beat Orlando, Chicago, Cleveland, and Minnesota. And then they need to fend off Miami in that home series on the 9th  and 11th.

The good news is Boston is the best of this group against winning teams. They're not great, but they're 14-17 against teams above .500 while Charlotte is 13-21, Atlanta is 12-19, New York is 11-18, and Miami is 11-19. If the Celtics can just pick up some wins against the good teams and beat the bad teams on their schedule, they can watch teams fall past them in the standings.

The Knicks, who are bad against good teams, have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in the league according to Tankathon. They're due for a big slide.

Atlanta's 5-in-7 is probably going to be the difference. If that sends them into a spiral, Boston can make their move. Considering the direction in which these teams are moving and what they face, here's how I see the final standings.

4. Boston
5. Atlanta
6. Miami
7. New York
8. Charlotte

The Hornets are a .500 team. That's just who they are. The Knicks upcoming schedule will kill their chances. I think the Hawks have taken advantage of a soft schedule to fuel their run and are due to hit a wall. Miami could make a run and it'll be close. I'm going to give Atlanta the win over Miami on Friday, which will give them the tiebreaker.

Boston's future is in their own hands here. The rest of the competition is going to have a tough time of things, so if the Celtics can handle their own business here, they'll be able to snag home court.