Well, all the cool kids are in the midst of Mock Draft Szn, so I might as well throw my hat into the ring.
One note: This is still, 19 days out from the draft, still a bit early to get a real good handle on draft tidbits, and my other mocks will likely be drastically different, judging from past years. Especially with the college football covid season, teams are still very much doing their due diligence on draft prospects, and positional coaches are likely wrapping up their research. Then teams compare and contrast the thoughts from scouts and the coaches before narrowing down their draft list.
The headlines? I have two teams trading up into the top 7 to draft Trey Lance and Justin Fields, and neither are the Patriots. And despite really good football players being pushed down the board, I still wanted more talent available when the Patriots were on the clock — and I would have been listening to any and all trades.
Here are the results after fiddling with the PFF mock draft simulator:
Key points:
• Mac Jones to the 49ers: The rest of the NFL would be shocked if the 49ers' pick is not Mac Jones. And that's good news for the Patriots, if you want to wind up with Jimmy Garoppolo. Jones is a younger, smarter and more durable Garoppolo. Once minicamps are over, Jones will have won over the coaches and they'll be convinced they don't need Garoppolo and will be more willing to move him to recoup that cap space. Also good news in this mock: two teams would be removed from Garoppolo trade competition.
• Bears trade up to No. 4 to select ... Trey Lance: It costs them two future firsts and a third ... basically the 49ers' package. ... Justin Fields would definitely be a consideration here if the Falcons stay, but I just think Lance is the better developmental fit with Matt Ryan basically there for the next two years. Falcons can take their time developing Lance. Fields would press for the job earlier and could make things uncomfortable. I just think the Falcons pass for now due to the package offered. ... What's interesting about the Bears is there has to be intense pressure on GM Ryan Pace, especially, and coach Matt Nagy to deliver a winner. I can see them being desperate to add a possible rookie starter to Andy Dalton. But will ownership allow Pace and Nagy to sell part of the future to secure their jobs now? That has to be a debate in Chicago. Atlanta needs a better young base on the roster, which is why I think they ultimately sell.
• Washington trades up to No. 7 to select ... Fields: WFT has the other washed-up veteran QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick) and no plan for future, and you know Daniel Snyder will want to make a splash. You can argue this team is a QB away from really competing. Washington and Chicago have to be desperate for QBs, and you know they're more desperate than Bill Belichick. Detroit is in a long-term rebuild. They need more good young players.
• With the 15th pick, New England selects ...: The receivers (Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle) I wanted were off the board. The offensive tackle (Rashawn Slater) was off the board, as were my two preferred corners (Pat Surtain II, Jaycee Horn). Bummer. Too early for DT Christian Barmore, in my opinion. Very intrigued by CB Caleb Farley, edge players Jaelan Phillips and Kwity Paye, along with safety Trevon Moehrig. In the end, I went with LB Micah Parsons. He's not perfect and he could need some seasoning, but if the Patriots think he'll develop quickly, it's tough to pass up a physical talent like that. Here's the other thing: All indications point to Dont'a Hightower coming back, and I have no reason to doubt that. But what if Hightower has a change of heart? The Patriots are very thin at linebacker. They need another emergency option. So Parsons is a present and future bet for the Patriots. Plus, he has versatility.
• I easily would have traded down in the first for a decent offer. Would make maneuvering for a quarterback later, much easier.
• Among the others I listed, my preference, in order, would be: Farley ... (drop off) Phillips, Paye ... (drop off) Moehrig. I have questions about whether those edge players can play the run well enough for the Patriots.
• After going through this exercise, I'm not so sure the five QBs will be overdrafted all that much compared to years prior. I don't think there's all that many sure-fire, first-round prospects in this draft. I think it falls off right around 20. If the Falcons and Lions feel similar, they might not be willing to drop down to that area. That would help the Patriots if they indeed wanted to make a short jump up should the QBs slide a little.
• In this mock, the Giants and Joe Judge (and Dave Gettleman) kind of screwed things up for the Patriots taking DeVonta Smith at 11. Would have liked to see one of those receivers on the board at 15. If that happens, that might cause someone to trade up with New England.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. No, I don't think Julian Edelman's status — we reported in this space a week ago that an exit for Edelman, either through trade, release or retirement, because of his knee, was the feeling around the team with much still up in the air – makes the Patriots more desperate for a receiver. They signed two and have Jakobi Meyers and N'Keal Harry. It's not barren. Would have been nice if they took one last year at some point.
2. The union is treading a tough line with their stance on OTAs after NFLPA president J.C. Tretter said they are urging the players not to report for voluntary workouts. I bet the vast majority of veterans would be in favor of it. But it really hurts the young players. Maybe that's why the veterans like it: less development time for young players, the easier it will be for veterans to hold onto their jobs. Tretter said on the union's website that this was about player safety. “Over the past five years, the average number of missed-time injuries annually for all NFL teams was 3,524,” Tretter wrote. “For the 2020 season, the number of missed time injuries decreased to 2,716.” That's fair, but there has to be a happy medium somewhere.
3. It's that time of year ... but let's be entertained. DaBearsBlog reports the Bears want the fourth pick. Michael Lombardi said on his podcast, "I don't think, I know Washington loves Lance. I think they're willing to go get him." This kind of chatter will only increase now.
4. About this time last year, a lot of people asked (many, many) questions about the Patriots' possible interest in former LSU TE Thaddeus Moss, the son of Randy Moss. Well, he's available again after Washington released the former undrafted prospect.
5. If you wanted to know why I wouldn't touch the Deshaun Watson case with a 10-foot pole on Felger and Mazz or my podcast, well-respected veteran beat writer Aaron Wilson lost his job for less-than-ideal comments on the subject to WEEI last month.