While the emergence of youngsters like Charlie McAvoy, the arrival of David Pastrnak as a goal-scoring juggernaut and Bruce Cassidy taking the reins of the Original Six franchise may have revitalized Boston's Cup-contention window over the last few years, there are still many a Bruins fan still steamed about the course that the club charted during those fruitless campaigns from 2014-16.
You know, those bridge seasons where, instead of assessing the state of a rebuilding roster and accelerating an on-the-fly retool by trading pending UFAs like Loui Eriksson, the Bruins instead bought at the deadline in a failed campaign to punch their ticket back to the postseason — relinquishing assets in a 2017 2nd-round pick, 2016 3rd-round pick, 2016 4th-round pick and 2017 5th-round pick for Lee Stempniak and John Michael-Liles.
That lingering sentiment — and the fear of a failed window to recoup assets on the fly — has crept back into the hive mind of some Bruins fans on the eve of one of the most pivotal trade deadlines for Boston in recent memory, with the uncertain validity of Boston's status as a true Cup contender and a myriad of injuries sapping star talent from the lineup fostering momentum towards a potential sell-off.
Now, granted, a lot of that narrative has been flipped on its head over the last few games — with the rookie duo of Jeremy Swayman/Dan Vladar keeping the club afloat in a cutthroat East Division.
But even if the fortunes were reversed and Boston found itself in a similar spot as the stumbling Flyers, a full sell-off is not so simple, especially in a year like this.
Of course, the primary issue when it comes to any firesale is what exactly the Bruins fans would want the club to part with — given that perhaps an appealing asset in Tuukka Rask is not going to attract many suitors, not given his current status with a nagging upper-body injury.
Other potential assets such as Charlie Coyle are tied down by long-term contracts, while a winger like Jake DeBrusk (while still high on potential) won't yield the same return he might have commanded even a few months ago — at least not in terms of a pure sell-off piece. At this point, other than perhaps a player with term on good value in Craig Smith, the only deal-able asset that the Bruins might boast in any of these hypothetical sales is a pending UFA in David Krejci.
And even with Krejci's value to many Cup contenders as a legitimate top-six pivot with a sterling playoff resume, moving that contract is easier said than done this year in a trade market marked with very few capable buyers — and only a small assortment of sellers.
If there was ever a year in which a team shouldn't reverse course and try to cut bait on contracts, it's likely this year in a flat-cap era — one that could linger into the coming years given Gary Bettman's comments last month.
"With respect to the salary cap, we, as I think everybody knows, that (we signed) a four-year extension to the salary cap is at the collective bargaining agreement,” Bettman said. “And as part of that, the salary cap is basically going to be flattened until we recover the overpayments through the escrow that we’ve built up — both in the return to play from last season, which obviously had to be concluded under different circumstances. And this season, where obviously there’s a major escrow building up because of the fact that there’s no attendance and attendance, directly and indirectly, accounts for roughly half of our revenues. So I think everybody is basically focusing on a near a flat cap or a near flat cap for the immediate future.”
Of course, not only are fewer and fewer teams receptive to taking on contracts given the constricting nature of an $81.5 million upper limit remaining in place, but there is only so much cap space to go around this year — with CapFriendly noting that 10 teams are already tabbed with $0 in projected cap space. And while some teams like the Devils and Lightning have had to get very creative with retained salary (and dispersing said retention across multiple teams) in order to acquire assets like Kyle Palmieri and David Savard, other teams are staring at even more daunting odds of pulling off deals.
https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1381001741953548293
Look no further than a team like the Golden Knights, who, in a season without a flat cap, would likely be all in on an asset like Krejci, given their need for an impact talent down the middle. But alas, even if Boston was to eat a significant portion of Krejci's cap hit, Vegas doesn't have the means to take on such a contract without moving money of their own — given that they only have $41,000 in available cap space. Hell, even earlier this month, the Golden Knights were only able to dress 16 skaters due to salary-cap constraints.
So, no, now is not the time for the Bruins to just sell off assets for future capital, especially given the state of the market.
So where does exactly does that leave Don Sweeney and the Bruins just a few days ahead of Monday's trade deadline — especially with the ceiling of this club still so difficult to project given just how ravaged this roster has been by injuries?
At this point, the only two proper courses of action are to either stand pat and wave the white flag — or buy.
And even though Sweeney and the Bruins do owe it to this veteran core to not simply punt on one of their final chances, Boston's smaller pool of valued trade chips and barren cupboard of draft capital (parting with a first-round pick in 2021 would stand as the third time in four years that Boston will have relinquished their first rounder) means that Sweeney's prerogative to add impact assets will hinge upon whether the return will only help in as rentals in 2021 — or serve as key cogs going forward.
It's that thinking that led to Boston ultimately coming up short in the Palmieri sweepstakes, with Boston unwilling to part with the first rounder the Islanders relinquished to add the pending UFA veteran forward to their core. And such sentiment will endure with other soon-to-be free agents, with Boston unlikely to surrender key assets, prospects or top picks in order to bring aboard someone like Mike Hoffman or Taylor Hall.
(Now, if the final asking price for a guy like Hall ends up being, say, Anders Bjork and a second-round pick? Then that's a different story.)
But if Boston wants to move more valuable pieces, it's likely only going to come in return for players with term. Even though you could make the argument that the B's giving up a haul for a pending UFA in Rick Nash back in 2018 was a short-sighted move, the B's had every intention to re-up the veteran winger beyond 2018 — only to have those plans crumble off of a cheap shot from Cedric Paquette.
So if Boston is going all-in at this deadline, you're likely only going to see deals struck if - A: they don't have to relinquish too much (Hoffman/potentially Hall) or B: they gain a player that can be a building block moving forward, such as a pending RFA like Conor Garland (a move that seems more and more unlikely with Arizona remaining in the playoff picture).
The other option for Sweeney and Co. is considerably less appealing, but one that unfortunately might be more realistic — in which Boston simply stands pat and places its bets on this team getting hot in May/June as (hopefully) more injured players are given the green light to play. Of course, that's far from a sure thing, especially with Rask still dealing with a nagging upper-body injury, Ondrej Kase still out of commission and three of their top-four defensemen in Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo all on the shelf.
Given the multitude of injuries, Boston could very well just tab this banged-up crew as a team not worth fully investing in and opt to hold onto its assets and fight another day.
Of course, you never know when that another day might come. After all, even following that crushing Game 7 loss to St. Louis, most fans figured that this team still had at least another few kicks at the can. ... And then, COVID-19 happened. And now, one year after that unfulfilled 2019-20 campaign, this string of injuries has this team suddenly stuck at a crossroads. Things can change in a hurry in the NHL, and opting to sit back at the deadline could fully shut the door on this Bruins team and deny the likes of Bergeron, Krejci and Rask of their last legitimate chance to make some noise this summer.
It's far from an enviable position for Sweeney and the Bruins to be in — but unfortunately it's one of their own making.
We've seen what has happened when Boston has opted for half measures instead of going all in — with playoff runs in 2019 and 2020 potentially ending in different results had the club managed to go all in for the likes of a Mark Stone or a Blake Coleman. And, as those fruitless deals for Stempniak and Liles taught us, sometimes it's just not worth investing in a team stuck in limbo.
So which path do Sweeney and the Bruins take? We only have a few more days to find out.
_____________________
_____________________