Patriots Future: Bill Belichick need to hit in this draft to give 2022 a better base

Understandably, everyone is all excited about what the Patriots did this offseason. The 2021 Patriots quickly went from also-rans to possible contenders if everything goes right: all the new pieces fit together at some point and they get good quarterback play ... from someone.

But when you have an organization like the Patriots — especially one that prides itself on sustainability l— the team is never a one-year snapshot. The best organizations keep the long view and work on multiple tracks. Yes, the next season matters greatly, but you have to keep one eye on the horizon and what's coming down the line.

The Patriots did great work this offseason, on paper, for the 2021 season. But even if all the signings and trades work well this season — and the odds are not all of them will — then the Patriots still have a lot of work to do in the short-term, namely the draft, to help them solidify the base of the roster in 2022 and beyond.

New England has bridged the gap, somewhat. When we did this a year ago — Patriots Future: (Lack of) Depth chart for 2022 shows just how crucial this team-building stretch is for Patriots — this is what the depth chart looked like:



After this offseason, and with some promising pieces from the 2020 draft, it looks a lot better (we'll reveal it in a minute).

But there is a long way to go, and not (as) many resources left to do it.

Basically, the Patriots have to build on the '20 draft, follow that up with another strong group in a few weeks, and most if not all of their deals this offseason have to work out.

Why? The Patriots are about to run into a free-agent iceberg in '22. And where those holes are should lead you to where New England might look for help in the draft, because Belichick prefers to draft one year out from need.

Patriots have just 35 players on the roster for 2022 (Devin McCourty voids, and Patrick Chung has not yet officially retired). Those 35 players already account for $163.6 million on a cap that will likely fall around $200 million, a modest increase over the $182.5 million this year.

The cap is not the issue for '22, unless guys Nelson Agholor reverts back to his Philly form, Jonnu Smith, Matthew Judon and Kendrick Bourne aren't ready to be leading men, and Hunter Henry can't stay on the field. In that case, look out below.

This just tells you how bad the Patriots have been in team-building the past few years:

Of the top 13 players with a cap number of $4 million or more in '22, all but four (Shaq Mason, Jonathan Jones, Deatrich Wise, David Andrews) were signed from another team this year. This is the type of stuff you see from a personnel department that has struggled and is trying to save their jobs. No, I don't think Belichick's job is in any trouble; I'm just illustrating how bad the personnel decisions have been to lead to such a drastic offseason.

The issue for '22 is how much football intelligence and experience they are set to lose without any ready-made replacements. It's not widespread, but it hits a few groups especially hard.

 

Here are the major contributors who will be free agents in 2022:

Stephon Gilmore
Devin McCourty
Trent Brown
Dont'a Hightower
Julian Edelman
Cam Newton
JC Jackson
Adrian Phillips
Isaiah Wynn (5-yr opt)
Ja'Whaun Bentley
Sony Michel (5-yr opt)
James White

Here's the resulting depth chart:



 



The offense is largely fine, especially if they get a QB in the draft in the first three rounds they think has a shot at starting in 2022. I would expect the Patriots to pick up the fifth-year option on at least Isaiah Wynn (another $10.4 million in cap space), and likely also Sony Michel ($4.523 million is reasonable for an experienced load-sharting RB). I would also expect Trent Brown, if things go well, to be back on an extension at some point. If not, roll with Justin Herron at RT.

Do those things, and the Patriots are likely set on offense already for 2022 — that's why it would be nice to get a QB in here (ahem, Jimmy Garoppolo and a draft pick) to grow with all these pieces, instead of doing all of this crap for a third time next offseason.

Defense is a different story.

The front five in a 3-4 is set, although the Patriots could use some young depth on a new rookie deal at OLB for Kyle Van Noy, and defensive tackle (maybe a nose and a DT).

The second and third levels of the defense need a lot of attention, either through cap space retaining aging and expensive veterans (extensions for Devin McCourty, Don't Hightower and Adrian Phillips would be wise with void years — for McCourty and Hightower — to coincide with a rapidly increasing cap in '23).

Right now, the starters on the second and third level of the defense are:

ILBs: Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings.
CBs: Jalen Mills, Jonathan Jones, D'Angelo Ross
Safeties: Myles Bryant, Kyle Dugger.

Not terrible, but not optimal. Of course, things can change quickly in a year (look at Damien Harris' trajectory from a year ago to now).

Like we've been telling you for months, this would follow the plan of offense-heavy free agency, and use the draft to fortify the defense.

Patriots could use a QB and OT in the draft for depth, but outside of that, a stud standup linebacker, a corner and another safety should also be very high on the list. If the Patriots get a LB like Micah Parsons in round one, a QB like Kellen Mond in the second, and a corner in the third round, then suddenly '22 looks a lot better.

This is why I'm inclined to think the Patriots will not trade up in the draft for a QB, and would more likely trade down to get more assets to use to find players for '22. Of course, I've been wrong before and you never know with Belichick.

But Belichick hates playing rookies unless he has to, especially on defense. And I highly doubt the Patriots will be anywhere near as active in free agency next year with some 55 roster spots needed to fill and (right now), about $35 million in cap space for another 16 top 51 salaries (cap is not the issue for '22).

That's why this draft is vital. The Patriots need players out of it.