The Patriots did so much work during free agency — bringing in some 10 players who could start or play meaningful roles this season — that it's been tough to keep up, or at least figure out how the pieces are going to fit into the larger picture.
The easy math is, the Patriots have 79 players on their roster (Patrick Chung is the 80th at the moment) when 90 is the limit. The team has 10 draft picks. Some think this means the Patriots could package some of their picks — perhaps up to get a quarterback, or out for picks in 2022.
That can't totally be dismissed. The roster certainly has one huge gaping hole at quarterback, so that makes sense. And with the 2020 college football season and scouting process largely upended, maybe kicking the evaluation can down the road so you can make better decisions with more information (there are zero in-person interviews with the pro days) might not be the worst idea.
But when you dig deeper into the roster — and account for the fact the Patriots have 28 unrestricted free agents in 2022, including 12 who have or figure to get major minutes this season — you realize there's some fat when it comes to the final 53-man roster and you could see a path to least an additional seven roster spots. That would give the Patriots plenty of room to sign a robust draft class (doubt they use all 10 this year) and a healthy crop of undrafted free agents.
And the areas left open would seem to match up well where the Patriots are expected to be looking for help — now or down the line — in the draft.
Let's start with my depth chart on both sides of the ball.
A couple of notes/observations after going through this exercise:
- I think the Patriots are going to be a base 3-4 team ... but don't get too riled up about that.
- First of all, they have way more good/serviceable interior linemen than they do standup linebackers, and I think the surprising (ill-conceived? ... he might be the new Rex Burkhead as a questionable player Bill Belichick loves and overpays) re-signing of Deatrich Wise was a bit of a tip-off on this because he (at least in Belichick's mind) gives them coverage in a number of positions.
- When I posed the question to sources, "Who the hell is going to play next to Hightower?" I got a few answers. "We'll see." "It's not really going to matter."
- Why it's not going to matter is the key to this. "Nobody plays base anymore," was one response. It's no secret that teams play over 60 percent of their defense out of nickel and dime. But how you play subpackage is the vital thing. And the Patriots were crappy at it last year. Why? Because they couldn't stop the run.
- Enter a line two-deep of Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, Henry Anderson, Byron Cowart, Montravius Adams and (for now) Akeem Spence (I think Adams and/or Spence are easily subbed out for one or two line draft pick). There will be no running.
- That means the opposing offenses should be in long yardage often, which means the Patriots will really be a sub base defense, which is where I think they want to be with all four safeties — Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger (linebacker) and Jalen Mills on the field a lot.
- For giggles, here's the rest of the projected primary sub group: Gilmore, Jackson, Jones; Van Noy, Judon, Cowart, Wise.
- Offensively, the Patriots are going to be a handful with different personnel and alignment groupings. The Patriots will have two TEs, two different FBs, and the ability to go with 4 WRs depending on the game situation.
Stephon Gilmore, starting CB
Devin McCourty, starting FS/1st round pick
Trent Brown, starting RT/LT
Dont'a Hightower, starting MLB/1st round pick
Julian Edelman, starting SWR
Cam Newton, starting QB (today)
Adrian Phillips, starting SS
Isaiah Wynn, starting LT/1st round pick
James White, starting Pass RB
Sony Michel, starting-ish RB/1st round pick
JC Jackson, top 3 CB
- Unless Winovich moves to stand-up linebacker, which I'm all for trying because I think he can do it if the coaches give him some leash, I don't see where he ever plays outside of some weird/funky personnel matchups against specific opponents. You combine that with the coaches not trusting him, might be time to move him and bring in more of a Patriots-type player to understudy on the edge to take over for Van Noy in '22 or '23.
- I don't see where Jennings fits, unless he's the new Jermaine Cunningham who just sticks around due to draft status. I'd rather move on and get a fast, impactful linebacker.
- Bentley had his chance. Need more speed.
- Asiasi will probably stick, but now he's behind two studs who are not leaving anytime soon. Find someone who liked him in the draft, and start the TE succession plan in the '22 draft.
- No definitive news on Edelman, but people around the team don't talk about him much, and the consensus is they will help him give it one more go elsewhere (Tampa?), or he'll retire.
- The rest are nice depth, but might not be needed.
- This is the cap space gained from just those moves:
